The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, has pursued a pro-European reform agenda since coming to power. However, the party faces mounting challenges: economic hardship, inflation, energy insecurity, and a sophisticated disinformation campaign orchestrated by Russian actors. These pressures have eroded public trust and created fertile ground for populist and pro-Russian parties to regain influence.
The scale and intensity of Russian hybrid warfare against Moldova’s democratic processes has increased. This includes not only media manipulation and cyberattacks but also support to opposition parties, vote-buying and attempts to exploit regional divisions within the country. Russian-backed actors are particularly active in the autonomous region of Gagauzia and in the breakaway territory of Transnistria.
Despite these challenges, Moldova has made notable progress in aligning itself with the European Union. The country was granted EU candidate status in 2022 and has since undertaken judicial reforms, anti-corruption measures, and efforts to strengthen state institutions. The EU and its member states have responded with increased diplomatic engagement, financial assistance, and public support for Moldova’s European path.
The electoral landscape is fragmented, with several parties and electoral blocs competing. While PAS remains the strongest single party, its ability to form a stable government will depend on coalition-building and voter mobilization, particularly among the diaspora and urban populations. Voter turnout and regional voting patterns will be decisive, with pro-European sentiment strongest in the capital and among Moldovans abroad, while rural and economically disadvantaged regions lean toward pro-Russian narratives.
Ultimately, the 2025 election is as a pivotal moment for Moldova’s future. It is not merely a domestic contest but a geopolitical litmus test for the resilience of democracy in Eastern Europe. The stakes are high: a victory for pro-European forces could accelerate Moldova’s EU accession process and reinforce democratic norms, while a shift toward pro-Russian parties could stall reforms and deepen regional instability.
The full-length country report is only available in German.
