Political rentrée to work as the election campaign gets underway

With the political return to work, the run-up to the 2027 presidential election campaign effectively begins in France. Although there are still several months to go before the election, the political camps are already clearly staking out their positions. Initial debates, new candidacies, and controversial socio-political initiatives show that the contest for France’s political future is gathering pace. The Senate elections on 27 September are likely to realign the political balance of power and thus inject further momentum into the nascent election campaign. At the same time, the government faces an imminent test: the budget debate. The tabling of the draft budget on 30 September and the planned vote on 17 November will serve as a decisive test of the ability of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government to act. At the same time, the passing of the budget will reveal the extent to which the French National Assembly is capable of compromise at all under the current majority arrangements. Autumn could thus become a political stress test – and at the same time decisively shape the balance of power ahead of the 2027 presidential election.