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World Energy Scenarios 2016 - The Grand Transition

Das World Energy Council hat kürzlich einen umfassenden, neuen Bericht veröffentlicht. In diesem Bericht ‘World Energy Scenarios 2016: THE GRAND TRANSITION’ werden drei explorative Szenarien präsentiert: Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphonie und Hard Rock. Diese Szenarien regen an, über aktuelle energie- und klimapolitische Herausforderungen zu diskutieren und nachzudenken. Außerdem statten sie Entscheidungsträger im Energiesektor mit einem offenen, transparenten und inklusiven Gerüst aus, um angesichts einer ungewissen Zukunft adequate Entscheidungen treffen zu können.

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Since 1970, the world has seen rapid growth in energy demand, mainly satisfied by fossil fuels. The future will be different. Disruptive trends are emerging that will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry, characterised by lower population growth, radical new technologies, greater environmental challenges, and a shift in economic and geopolitical power. These underlying drivers will reshape the economics of energy. We call this uncertain journey into the new world of energy – The Grand Transition.

Over the past three years, the World Energy Council has explored the likely futures and outcomes for the Grand Transition. Our findings indicate:

  • THE WORLD’S PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies.
  • DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.
  • THE PHENOMENAL RISE OF SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new opportunities and challenges for energy systems. DEMAND PEAKS FOR COAL AND OIL have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to “Stranded Resources”.
  • TRANSITIONING GLOBAL TRANSPORT forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise future energy systems.
  • LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices.
  • GLOBAL COOPERATION, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION are needed to balance the Energy Trilemma. The Grand Transition is built on three new exploratory and metaphorically named scenarios looking to 2060: Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock.These scenarios provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future.
Building on the World Energy Council’s previous scenarios, Modern Jazz represents a ‘digitally disrupted’, innovative, and market-driven world. Unfinished Symphony is a world in which more ‘intelligent’ and sustainable economic growth models emerge as the world drives to a low carbon future. The Council has also introduced an emerging and more fragmented scenario called Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of weaker and unsustainable economic growth with inward-looking policies.

All three scenarios have then been quantified using a global, multi-regional energy system model.

Please note that the publication does not necessarily reflect the Position of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.

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Dr. Peter Hefele


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