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State of Play: Strategic Competition and Regional Agency in the Gulf

Roundtable on great-power dynamics and regional agency from a Gulf perspective

The 2026 US/Israel-Iran war has reshaped the strategic landscape of the Gulf, raising new questions about great-power competition, regional agency, and the future of the regional security order. This closed-door roundtable in Abu Dhabi brings together policymakers, scholars, and experts from the United States, Europe, and the Gulf to examine how Gulf states are navigating the post-war environment and shaping the emerging order amid intensifying strategic competition.

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Details

On 1 October 2026, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS)'s Regional Programme Gulf States, together with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and with the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy (AGDA) as in-region host, will convene a closed-door roundtable on strategic competition and regional agency in the Gulf in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

Building on the Brussels dialogue held in June 2026, which examined the evolving Gulf landscape from a European and transatlantic perspective, the Abu Dhabi session brings the discussion to the region itself. Against the backdrop of the lingering consequences of the 2026 US/Israel-Iran war, the dialogue will bring together policymakers, scholars, and experts from the United States, Europe, and the Gulf to examine how Gulf states, particularly the UAE, are shaping the emerging regional order amid intensifying strategic competition. Held under the Chatham House Rule, the roundtable will focus on the following topics: 

  • The contest over the Gulf's strategic waterways and chokepoints, including competing approaches to maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and the prospects for a durable maritime security order; 

  • How the UAE and other Gulf states are balancing cooperation with external powers while pursuing increasingly autonomous foreign and security policies; 

  • The implications of emerging regional partnerships and intensifying US-China competition in AI and emerging technologies for the UAE's strategic positioning, non-proliferation, and the evolving balance of power in the Gulf; 

  • What a durable post-war Gulf security architecture could look like, including the role of Europe and opportunities for practical US-European-GCC cooperation. 

The Abu Dhabi session forms part of the State of Play: Strategic Competition and Regional Agency in the Gulf series. It follows the inaugural session held in Doha in December 2025 and the extraordinary European-Transatlantic edition convened in Brussels in June 2026. Building on the questions and priorities identified in Brussels, the Abu Dhabi dialogue will take these discussions forward directly with Gulf interlocutors and explore pathways for sustained transregional cooperation. 

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Venue

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Contact Philipp Dienstbier
Philipp Dienstbier_Portrait
Director of the Regional Programme Gulf States
philipp.dienstbier@kas.de +962 6 59 24 150

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