The End of Double-Digit Growth - Foundation Office Thailand
Symposium
Details
For the Asian economies, the era of double-digit growth based on exports is clearly over! All around Asia, developing and developed countries need to reconsider their economic strategies and focus on consumer-led growth by increasing domestic demand. Yet, the necessary blueprints for future economic sustainability must deal with challenges that can not be solved solely by an increase in productivity. Various countries within the Asian region are getting caught up in a “middle-income trap” if they fail to liberalize their markets for goods and services and to deregulate their labour markets. Depending on what country within the region and on what sub-region within some of the Asian countries (e.g. coastal and rural provinces in China), consumer-led growth requires further investments not only in infrastructure but also in higher education. Governments must undertake far-reaching structural and institutional reforms in order to improve public administration and – in some of the Asian countries – to cope with aging societies, higher costs for pensions and health care as well as growing risks of public debt and inflation.
The two-day conference highlighted the major reasons for the economic slowdown and analyse its implications for the development of the Asian countries among eminent experts from Asia and Europe. The participants learnt about reform projects in various Asian countries, possible obstacles and potentials. The event was hosted by the German Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in cooperation with Chulalongkorn University, Thai-land. The conference language is English.
Program
Monday, January 20
09.30
Registration of Participants
10.00
Welcome Remarks
Paul Linnarz, Regional Representative for Economic Policy, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), Japan Office
10.15
Opening Remarks
Prof. Suthipand Chirathivat, Ph.D., Chairman of Chula Global Network, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
10.30
Keynote Speech
Dr. Kanit Sangsubhan, Director, Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation, Thailand
11.00
Coffee Break
11:30
Session 1: Presentation "The Downsizing of Growth in Emerging Markets: Cyclical, Structural, Real or Fictive?"
Prof. Dr. Rolf J. Langhammer, Past Vice-President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany
12.30
Lunch Break
13.30
Session 2: What are the major reasons for the slowdown of economic growth in Asia?
PART 1: “external” aspects
To what extent have the European debt crisis, the fiscal situation in the US, the expansionary monetary policy by quantative easing and their influence on the recent movements on the capital markets, the stormy seas on the financial markets and related global aspects contributed to the slowdown of economic growth in Asia? Experts from different Asian countries share their views from a national perspective.
Panellists:
- Dr. Posh Raj Pandey, Executive Chairman, South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SAWTEE), Nepal
- Ronald U. Mendoza, Ph.D., Executive Director, Asian Institute of Management (AIM) Policy Center, Associate Professor of Economics, Philippines
- Martin Schulz, Ph.D., Senior Economist, Fujitsu Research Institute, Japan
- Dr. Rajat Kathuria, Director and Chief Executive, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, India
- Alastair Carthew, Journalist, Thailand
15.00
Coffee Break
15.30
Session 3: What are the major reasons for the slowdown of economic growth in Asia?
PART 2: “domestic” aspects"
What are the home-grown barriers to past economic growth rates within the Asian region? In what way do structural obstacles differ from country to country?
Panellists:
- Sophal Chan, Former President of Cambodian Economic Association (CEA), Cambodia
- Dr. Sadiq Ahmed, Vice Chairman, Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, Bangladesh
- Dr. Saman Kelegama, Executive Director, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka
- Thanong Khanthong, Managing Editor, The Nation, Thailand
17.00
End of Conference Day 1
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Tuesday, January 21
09.30
Registration of Participants
10.00
Session 4: The impact of slow or slower economic growth in Asia on public commitments of governments
PART 1: perspectives from high-income countries
The panel discussion deals with the impact on public debt, on “soft” infrastructure e.g. higher education, innovation, social welfare systems etc.
Panellists:
- Prof. Dr. Bokyeong Park, Kyung Hee University, Graduate School of Pan-Pacific Studies, South Korea
- Koji Sakuma, General Manager and Chief Economist, Institute for International Monetary Affairs (IIMA), Japan
- Bruce Avasadanond, Journalist at Radio, Thailand
11.00
Coffee Break
11.30
Session 5: The impact of slow or slower economic growth in Asia
PART 2: perspectives from middle-income countries
The panellists will discuss questions about the liberalization and deregulation of markets, investments in infrastructure, opening up of service sectors, structural and institutional reforms etc.
Panellists:
- Prof. Charit Tingsabadh, Ph.D., Acting Director, Centre for European Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
- Prof. Siew Yean Tham, Principal Fellow, Institute of Malaysian & International Studies (IKMAS), Malaysia
- Prof. Hong Song, Director, Department of International Trade, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China
- Alastair Carthew, Journalist, Thailand
12.30
Lunch Break
13.30
Session 6: From “A” like Japan’s Abenomics to “Z” like Germany’s zero structural deficit policy – how to bridge and internationally coordinate different national policy strategies?
The panellists will present and discuss possible solutions and necessary economic reforms from an Asian as well as from a German/European point of view. Special attention will be given to the reforms of market-based institutions.
Panellists:
- Prof. Dr. André Schmidt, Student Dean, Faculty of Economics, University Witten/Herdecke, Germany
- Dr. Ramgopal Agarwala, Distinguished Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries, India
- Prof. Dr. Madan Kumar Dahal, Chairman, Mega Bank Nepal Limited, Nepal
- Paul Linnarz, Regional Representative for Economic Policy, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), Japan Office
15.00
Coffee Break
15.30
Wrap-Up and Closing Remarks
- Charit Tingsabath, Ph.D., Acting Director, Centre for European Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
End of Conference Day 2
