At the end of a neck-and-neck race, the Greens emerge as the strongest force ahead of the CDU, despite slight losses, with the CDU making significant gains compared to the last state election. The election results are influenced by state-specific factors. The AfD, SPD and Left Party perform significantly weaker than at the federal level. For the first time in the state's history, the FPD fails to enter the state parliament. The Left Party also fails to clear the five per cent hurdle.
As in the federal election, the parties' supporters differ considerably in the issues they consider particularly important. The fragmentation of party support is reflected in heterogeneous perceptions of problems and differing profiles of concerns. The different individual preferences for issues do not result in any single issue that is important to all voters in Baden-Wuerttemberg. The economic situation is of particular importance to 29 per cent of voters. At the end of the election campaign, the CDU scores points with its high level of competence in this field, while a positive candidate effect prevents greater losses for the Greens.
The election analysis for the Baden-Wuerttemberg state election can be found here.
All graphs and tables on which the election analysis is based can be found at the end of the document.
Please note, to date the study is only available in German.
