Публікацыі

Беларускі штогоднік 2026

«Беларускі штогоднік 2026» прысвечаны падзеям і зменам 2025 года: палітычнай сістэме і выбарам, міжнародным адносінам Беларусі, эканоміцы, медыя і грамадскаму жыццю

Coale’s Visit and the Release of Political Prisoners in Belarus

The September 2026 release of political prisoners in Belarus and visit to Minsk by President Trump’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coal, suggest that the Belarus-US channel remains one of the few functioning diplomatic tracks between Belarus and the West. More importantly, the negotiations reveal a shift from expectations of a broader strategic rapprochement towards a highly transactional model in which political prisoners, sanctions relief, financial assets and regional security considerations are increasingly treated as elements of a step-by-step bargaining process. Understanding the logic of this emerging “small reciprocal steps” framework is essential, as it offers an indication of both the opportunities and the hard limits of engagement with Minsk, the role of regional actors such as Lithuania and Latvia, and the prospects for further releases of political prisoners in the months ahead.

Alyaksandr Valfovich: Chief Inspector of the Security Vertical

The article argues that Alyaksandr Valfovich (Alexander Volfovich) has become a key coordinator of Belarus’s security state and a potential transition figure, trusted by both Lukashenka and the Kremlin. It particularly emphasizes that Moscow views him as a reliable, pro-Russian security official who could help ensure continuity of Belarus’s alliance with Russia and prevent political unpredictability in the event of a future transfer of power.

Energy Rent as the Limit of Integration

According to a closed working report by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus prepared for the Council of Ministers, Minsk and Moscow have reached the final stage of agreeing a framework medium-term plan — the “Main Directions for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State” for 2027–2029. The final stage is likely to be difficult and will clearly demonstrate the limits of integration rapprochement.

Dzmitry Pantus and the Transformation of Belarus's Defence Industry

An overview of Dzmitry Pantus’s career and the transformation of Belarus’s defence industry under his leadership, including its growing integration with Russia, military modernisation, sanctions and international arms trade.

Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability

Policy Brief

How are Russia’s war economy, sanctions circumvention, and Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Moscow reshaping the region — and what policy options remain for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors?

Эсэ Святланы Курс (Евы Вежнавец) «СССР як калыска і магіла»

Тэкст, напісаны ў 2021 годзе для літаратурнага праекта Фонду Конрада Адэнаўэра, можна прачытаць і спампаваць па-беларуску і па-нямецку.

Рэлігія, царква і дзяржава ў Беларусі і Расіі

Policy Brief

Як рэжымы ў Мінску і Маскве выкарыстоўваюць рэлігійныя інстытуты і рэлігійную рыторыку для ідэалагічнай мабілізацыі, палітычнай легітымацыі і знешняга ўплыву?

Беларусь і Расія ва ўмовах вайны і санкцый: грамадскія настроі для ЕС і дэмакратычных сіл

Policy Brief

Як грамадствы Беларусі і Расіі прыстасоўваюцца да працяглай вайны, рэпрэсій і эканамічнага ціску — і чаму стомленасць не ператвараецца ў палітычныя змены?

Steht ein unmittelbarer Kriegseintritt von Belarus gegen die Ukraine bevor?

Seit Wochen warnt der ukrainische Präsident Selenskyj, Russland versuche, Belarus offen in den Krieg hineinzuziehen.

Laut Präsident Selenskyj haben ukrainische Geheimdienste den Bau von Straßen in Richtung der ukrainischen Grenze sowie die Vorbereitung von Artilleriestellungen in Belarus registriert. Russland ziehe demnach offensive Szenarien aus Belarus in Richtung Tschernihiw und Kyjiw in Betracht. Der Oberbefehlshaber der ukrainischen Streitkräfte erklärte, der russische Generalstab prüfe Offensivoperationen aus dem Norden, um die Frontlinie zu strecken. Nach mehrheitlicher Einschätzung unabhängiger belarusischer Analysten sind bislang jedoch keine Truppenbewegungen zu beobachten, die diese Szenarien klar untermauern würden. Ein direkter belarusischer Kriegseintritt bleibt weiterhin wenig wahrscheinlich. Gleichwohl ist die Lage angesichts der engen militärischen Bindung an Russland und des hohen Militarisierungsgrades angespannt. Zuletzt führten Russland und Belarus gemeinsame Manöver mit nuklearer Dimension durch und bauten damit eine klare Drohkulisse auf. Am 25. Mai traf Sviatlana Tichanowskaja als führende Vertreterin der demokratischen belarusischen Opposition in Kyjiw ein – ein wichtiges politisches Signal der Ukraine, dass die ukrainisch-belarusischen Beziehungen stärker an der demokratischen Opposition ausgerichtet und von Machthaber Lukaschenko distanziert werden sollen.