For centuries, the theater of international affairs operated on a single, mostly uncontested principle: ubi maior, minor cessat – where the stronger one is, the weaker one gives way. The dominant play was the powerplay. Resources, territory and military might bent both human fates and the rules that governed them, as the capacity to prosper corresponded to the capacity to dominate.
However, must this logic always prevail, or can weaker actors still shape outcomes in meaningful ways? I believe there is an opening that allows power, in its many forms, to shift towards those who possess less of it. When certainty is faced with creativity, when realpolitik finds a challenger in staatskunst, small states can hope to leverage the asymmetry and project disproportional influence on the world and the relationships they forge.
The reasons for this are both structural and behavioral. Unlike great powers, which are often burdened by complex bureaucratic systems and slower decision-making processes, small states tend to be more flexible and pragmatic. Their institutional structures allow them to adapt more rapidly to shifting political, economic, and security challenges. Historical circumstances, moreover, compelled small states to develop strategies for preserving sovereignty against overwhelming odds.
The Montenegrin people offer perhaps one of history's most striking examples, for centuries holding off Ottoman domination by mastering mountainous terrain and developing guerrilla tactics that turned the army disparity and organization itself into a decisive strategic asset. Eventually, the years of struggle were crowned with the emergence of Montenegro as the 27th internationally recognized country in the world at the Congress of Berlin in 1878. Thus, in a century governed by the balance of power among European giants, Montenegro drew its own place on the map.
The behavior of states and statesmen can make or break the case. Political vigor and diplomatic wit often can outshoot the best muskets and overcome the most difficult of circumstances. Leading with a clear vision is what expands the possible and reinvents positions. When Adenauer took office as Chancellor, what he saw was a country in shambles, but what history saw after him was Germany restored to the international scene. It is exactly this sort of behavior that distinguishes mere governance from genuine leadership.
Last years for Montenegro echoed some similar conditions – those of a country embarking on a systemic transition. In cases like this, as was demonstrated by Adenauer, successful statecraft entails two essential pre-conditions: vision and knowledge. Vision of where you want to get, and the knowledge of how to get there. Both are pivotal for what Montenegro faces today, standing at a critical juncture regarding its future.
On one hand, our national vision consists of three concrete pillars: EU membership, membership in NATO and good neighborly relations in the wider Balkan region.
Firstly, as the most advanced candidate in the accession process, Montenegro stands within reach of becoming the 28th member of the European Union by 2028. This represents a mutually beneficial scenario: Montenegro entering the club of some of the most prosperous societies in the world, and EU reviving the enlargement process as one of its key power projecting instruments at a crucial time for its international standing. The symmetry with history is even more stark: exactly 150 years since the Congress of Berlin, Montenegro will enter the next phase of its political life, just as several small European states did after achieving full membership in the European Union.
I recently visited three EU countries, Ireland, Cyprus, and Estonia, whose examples reflect what I believe Montenegro can become. Estonia strengthened its international position through digitalization and innovation-driven policies, while Ireland became one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies through attracting investment and integrating into the European market. Cyprus, the state currently presiding the Council of the European Union, further enhanced its diplomatic visibility through active participation in European affairs and engagement within EU institutions.
Secondly, Montenegro has been a reliable member of NATO since 2017 — a milestone that marked an important chapter in our modern statehood. But membership itself was never the final goal. What matters is what comes after accession: the responsibilities a country is willing to take on, the contributions it makes, and the trust it builds among its allies. Our objective was never simply to enter NATO, but to prove that we understand what collective security truly means: sharing responsibility, strengthening our own capacities, contributing to common missions, and acting as a reliable and credible partner.
For Montenegro, NATO and the European Union are not two separate directions, but parts of the same strategic course: stability, democratic institutions, the rule of law, and responsible international engagement. Our role in NATO strengthens our European path, while the European integration process strengthens our institutions and resilience at home. At the same time, a stable and European Montenegro contributes to the stability of the wider Western Balkans. That is why Montenegro’s European integration matters beyond Montenegro itself.
Lastly, a key component of Montenegro’s vision is projecting exemplary influence on the Western Balkans. In a region historically prone to democratic backsliding, Montenegro has established itself as a democratic compass, as we consistently rank first in political rights and civil liberties according to major global indexes. Through active participation in the Berlin Process, membership in CEFTA, and support for the Common Regional Market, Montenegro contributes to regional cooperation.
On the other hand, our know-how is based on a single principle: we use our goals as our means. Joining the EU means internally transforming oneself through reforms. Being a credible NATO ally means investing in our security capabilities. Being a good neighbor means promoting democracy and economic cooperation in a region riddled with unresolved disputes and fragile democracies. This is the work we are putting in now, in order for us to achieve
Now, how does our vision amplify our international footprint? As a country of less than a million inhabitants, logic prescribes modesty, but our history and goals promise anything but.
Being the next in line for enlargement, after more than a decade we can kick-start EU’s geopolitical reboot on a turbulent global scene, during the time its position is consistently challenged on its eastern border. At the same time, For the European Union, Montenegro is not a cost-heavy enlargement, it is a low-cost, high-value investment in the stability and future of Europe, which could signal to the other candidate countries that the enlargement is alive, and that reforms pay off. Montenegro can demonstrate that the European path delivers, and in doing so, pull the entire Western Balkans closer to where it belongs, into the EU.
International footprint, instead of miles or kilometers, is measured in consequence. Through constructive engagements and principled partnerships, Montenegro will continue to be on the scene, and not in the audience. Just as Robert Keohane famously observed: If Lilliputians can tie up Gulliver, or make him do their fighting for them, they must be studied as carefully as the giant. It is those ties of cooperation that bring forward our potential, and it is with clear direction that we aim to make ourselves and our actions matter.
Jakov Milatović, born in 1986 in Podgorica, President of Montenegro since 2023.
The German, edited version is available under www.kas.de/de/web/die-politische-meinung/artikel/detail/-/content/dem-kalkuel-trotzen.