Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Asia are no novel phenomenon. However, the Gulf’s connections with key Asian countries have significantly deepened since China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Rapid growth and development in Asia, burgeoning energy imports not least from the Gulf and a boom of manufacturing exports emanating from East and Southeast Asia to every corner of the globe, including the GCC, have strengthened economic ties. While the exchange of hydrocarbons for manufactured goods remains at the heart of this relationship, it now extends beyond energy, with growing Asian investments in the GCC’s infrastructure and technology sectors, complemented by sovereign wealth funds (SWF) in the Gulf pouring liquidity into Asian equity markets.
While being driven by economic links primarily, the evolving relationship between the GCC and Asia also spans economic, political, and cultural aspects. Politically, both regions have launched a plethora of strategic collaboration and dialogue formats. High-profile meetings between GCC and Asian leaders are as common as summits with representatives from Europe or the US. No longer do these strategic dialogues only cover energy cooperation but they have expanded into policy coordination regarding regional security, counterterrorism, and technology. They bear witness that the GCC perceives Asia as an essential partner in addressing regional complexities and navigating global changes.
On the cultural and social front, interactions between Asia and the GCC have also risen significantly. The influence of Korean or Japanese pop culture is palpable in the Gulf, and partnerships in higher education are thriving. The growing presence of Asian expatriates residing and working in GCC countries – increasingly as high-skilled labour migrants – is a unique socio-cultural connective tissue between both regions, having the potential to foster deeper understanding and respect.
Asia Eclipsing Europe-GCC (Economic) Ties
With relations between the GCC and Asia deepening, these ties have, concurrently, gained in importance compared to the Gulf’s relations with European nations, at least in relative terms. This partly has to do with a structural evolution in the energy field, decreasing the appetite within the European Union (EU) for fossil fuel imports from the Gulf as the continent transitions towards cleaner green energy. This has changed partly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cessation of most Russian energy exports to Europe has created renewed demand especially for liquified natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf. But as GCC countries are diversifying their economies under their multiple “Visions”, the more diversified nature of non-oil trade relations between Europe and the Gulf, spanning financial services, machinery, high- end electronics, agricultural products and luxury goods could increasingly become an asset, too.
In political, cultural, and social terms, ties between the GCC and Europe have lost less in significance compared to Gulf-Asia relations, as is the case in the energy field. There are long-standing cultural ties, with Gulf nationals studying in Europe’s universities or European tourists frequenting places like Dubai or Oman. Due to its shared neighbourhood, the EU’s political role – and especially that of individual member states such as France – has remained strong, too.
With the EU’s “Strategic Partnership with the Gulf”, launched in 2022, the EU has also intensified its outreach to the GCC. However, the EU’s political role in the Gulf still falls short of its potential, probably not for a lack of diplomatic engagement but because of sluggish implementation of initiatives like the GCC- EU-FTA or mutual visa liberalisation due to inertia, siloed decision-making, and missing political will in the EU.
The deepening relations of Gulf States with key Asian actors raise the question what implications Europe should draw from the growing Asian clout in the Gulf. While Gulf-European relations might have existed at this level for a longer time, they are increasingly eclipsed by the intensifying ties from GCC countries to Asia. It is true that trade flows with Asia are still largely driven by energy exports, and still mostly dominated by one single country – China. They also had had limited spill-over in the diplomatic and security realm, so far. But the sands are shifting.
Opportunities for Win-Win-Win Scenarios?
Against the backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics, the three-sided relations of the Asia-Europe-Gulf-nexus could foreshadow increasing competition but also might offer opportunities for all sides involved. While GCC-Asia-relations have strengthened, Europe and key Asian states like South Korea, India, and Japan have also fortified their bonds. Bolstering its relationships with Asian counterparts, the EU maintains a series of frameworks, including an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Japan, a strategic partnership with South Korea, and, with India, a joint trade and technology council. On security issues, Japan, India, and South Korea also collaborate with the EU through its “Enhancing Security Cooperation in and with Asia Project” (ESIWA).
This offers avenues for trilateral and mini-lateral cooperation frameworks that might create a win-win-win scenario for Europe, the GCC, and Asia. In 2021, the EU introduced the Global Gateway, an initiative akin to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), committing the EU to broadening global connectivity. And in 2023, the India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC) was launched during the G20 summit, aiming to enhance connectivity among India, the Middle East, and the EU. These projects could enhance connectivity across all three regions providing a blueprint for a new type of collaboration with all sides.
Views from the GCC, China, India, Japan, and Korea.
With so many interlinked, overlapping, and competing mechanisms at play, this publication explores several key questions to analyse growing Gulf-Asia relations and its implications for Europe. It delves into the question of how relations between the GCC and four Asian countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, have progressed and whether they complement or compete with one another. The publication also investigates how the ties between all sides might evolve in light of geopolitical shifts and regional conflicts, and what potential for joint collaboration exists, both in the economic but also in the political realm.
In the first chapter, Omar Al-Ubaydli examines the influence of growing GCC-Asia ties on EU-GCC relations through an assessment of economic, diplomatic, and security trends. He contrasts a “complementary” and “substitution effect” between EU-GCC ties and Asia-GCC ties, concluding that progress in GCC-Asia relations is unlikely to yield similar benefits for EU ties. In the second chapter, Shigeto Kondo explores the expansion of Japanese partnerships with Gulf states beyond traditional energy cooper-ation, suggesting that Japan’s strengthened partnership with the Gulf provides mutual advantages for Japan and the EU. The third chapter features Munsu Kang’s insights into the evolving economic ties between South Korea and the Gulf, revealing how their relationship has moved beyond traditional energy and construction partnerships into strategic areas of mutual interest, such as AI and EV manufacturing, suggesting these could serve as fertile ground for EU-Korea-Gulf triangular cooperation. In the fourth chapter, Narayanappa Janardhan highlights that India and the GCC are fostering collaboration in areas such as energy, food security, and connectivity, similarly advocating for enhanced trilateral partnerships between the EU, the GCC, and India. Finally, Chuchu Zhang examines China’s growing economic and energy partnerships but also political interests in the Gulf region while arguing that Beijing avoids direct challenges to EU influence in the GCC.
The analyses by these renowned experts help to cast a light on a highly complex phenomenon in global affairs. While the Gulf plays an increasingly central role on the world stage, its eastward turn shifts geopolitical dynamics. Understanding why and how will remain crucial for experts and policymakers alike. This volume is an important contribution to this effort. I wish you an informative and stimulating reading.
