The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in close cooperation with the Multinational Development Policy Dialogue (MDPD) of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), has produced a report exploring the interplay between environmental stress, labor migration flows, and vulnerabilities to radicalization among Tajik labor migrants.
Tajikistan is among the most affected countries by climate change in Central Asia, heavily impacting a society that relies on stable weather conditions for its agricultural productivity. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and land degradation undermine agricultural livelihoods, pushing rural households toward labor migration as a survival strategy.
This report explores the interplay between climate change and labor migration in Tajikistan. It reveals how cultural shocks, economic marginalization, and a lack of skills hinder the successful adaptation and integration of Tajik migrants into their host countries. Importantly, the report also explores how the resulting frustration and economic precariousness, combined with hostility in host countries (e.g. Russia and Turkey) can create fertile ground for extremist narratives.
Context and Rationale
Labour migration from Tajikistan, particularly to Russia and Turkey, has long been a subject of interest. Tajikistan is one of the countries most deeply affected by mass out-migration and its economy is now largely dependent on remittances.
While this is well known, recent changes and emerging focuses of analysis necessitate a revisit to these issues. The shift in climate conditions adds a new layer of complexity to migration trends that have already been adversely impacted by socio-political tensions. Following the Crocus Hall attack in March 2024, in which Tajik nationals were reportedly involved, there has been a marked increase in xenophobia and hostility towards Tajik migrants in Russia. This unique set of challenges makes of Tajikistan a special case even within the Central Asian region.
The emergence of a new migration route via Turkey is another significant change. While Tajik migrants seek to reach Europe, they often settle in Turkey due to either being unable to pay for the final leg of their journey or to being rejected by European border police forces.
Findings
This report is based on a RUSI research project supported by Multinational Development Policy Dialogue (MDPD) of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS). Our research identifies multiple pathways through which climate change might exacerbate the vulnerabilities of Tajik labour migrants leading to potential radicalisation. The findings indicate that:
- Tajikistan is among the most affected countries by climate change in Central Asia, impacting agricultural productivity and resulting in heightened migration pressures. Climate change affects Tajik agriculture heavily, even if its impact is diluted over the years. Lack of investment in agricultural infrastructure compounds the impact, forcing most rural households to send at least some family members abroad for earning extra money.
- Migrants of rural origins are more likely to lack the skills (including language ones) to adapt successfully in their host country. Even if few educated Tajiks work in their area of specialisation, they are better equipped to handle the challenges of migration, including by navigating the host country’s legal environment.
- Excess migration flows (relative to the demand for migrant labour) drive migrants to test new migration routes, sometimes exposing them to new dangers, including the proselytising activities of extremist organisations.
- New migration routes do not always or even often meet the expectations of Tajik labour migrants, resulting in additional frustration and even greater economic precariousness. This tends to create fertile ground for extremist ideologies.
- Tajik migrants might be even less prepared for the environment of new host countries than they were for Russia, with the result that their feelings of discrimination and economic exploitation in host countries can make them more vulnerable to radicalisation efforts by extremist organisations.
Case Studies
Comparing the experiences of Russia and Turkey reveals similarities and differences in the challenges that Tajik labour migrants have to face. Harassment and mistreatment by police forces was common to both environments, while the population was more hostile in Russia, not least in the wake of the 1 April 2024 terrorist attack in Moscow, of which Tajik citizens were accused. Finally, the Turkish economy turned out to be much less able than the Russian one of absorbing Tajik labour. Overall, big Turkish cities turned out not to be much less of a culture shock for Tajik migrants than Russian ones.
The findings highlight the significant influence of cultural shocks, economic opportunities, and hostile environments on the experiences of Tajik migrants.
Recommendations
The synthesis of these findings underscores the need for policies that integrate climate adaptation strategies within migration management frameworks to mitigate risks of radicalisation, as well as to better reconcile Tajikistan’s dependency on migrant remittances with the needs of labour markets abroad.
Addressing the root causes of migration and radicalisation is essential for promoting stability and security in both Tajikistan and host countries. Continued research is vital to adapt our understanding and responses to the evolving landscape of labour migration, radicalisation and their linkages to climate change, while ensuring that the voices of Tajik migrants remain central in these discussions. This report aims to serve as a foundation for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders invested in fostering resilience among Tajik migrants in the context of broader socio-environmental changes.
