When the climate becomes a stress test for the state
Latin America is bracing itself for one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, which is expected to peak between October 2026 and spring 2027. The consequences vary from region to region: Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia face the threat of drought, heatwaves and forest fires, whilst heavy rainfall and flooding are expected along the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru, as well as in the Cono Sur. What the region has in common is that El Niño is set to hit already strained household budgets, weak infrastructure and, in many places, weakened institutions. The reports from the KAS’s overseas offices therefore reveal a common pattern: the extent of the damage is likely to be determined less by the intensity of the weather event than by the states’ ability to take precautions, coordinate efforts and distribute aid transparently. El Niño thus becomes a stress test for water, energy and food security – and, ultimately, for statehood as a whole.
