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COTE D’IVOIRE : UNCERTAINITY AND CONFUSION

Since December 2010, Cote d'Ivoire has been in a crisis following Laurent Gbabgo's refusal to acknowledge the election of the internationally recognized President Alassane Quattara and subsequently to leave power. Among the many parties that have intervened in the crisis are the UN and ECOWAS which gave Gbabgo an ultimatum to leave by 24 March. Gbabgo ignored this ultimatum.

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France, which has more than 13000 expatriates living in Abidjan, said that it had authorized its forces, codenamed Licorne, to fight alongside the UN forces so as to neutralize Gbagbo's heavily armed men and to protect the civilians.

Since December 2010, Cote d'Ivoire has been in a crisis following Laurent Gbabgo's refusal to acknowledge the election of the internationally recognized President Alassane Quattara and subsequently to leave power. Among the many parties that have intervened in the crisis are the UN and ECOWAS which gave Gbabgo an ultimatum to leave by 24 March. Gbabgo ignored this ultimatum and this led to attacks on his forces by both the UN-forces and forces loyal to Quattara's camp. The turning point came on April 4th when four French helicopters attacked Gbagbo's residence.

According to the Elysee, the intervention by the French forces is as a response to a request by the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, made in a letter addressed to Nicolas Sarkozy in accordance with the UN security council's resolution 1975 which authorizes other member countries to intervene and to use necessary means to prevent the use of heavy arms against civilians. The attacks are therefore officially aimed at protecting civilians rather than at overthrowing Gbagbo.

Later in the afternoon, Barack Obama called on Laurent Gbagbo to resign immediately. He also expressed his support for the UN forces' intervention while Russia questioned the intervention of the UN-forces in Abidjan and called for an urgent meeting to discuss the issue.

François Fillon, the French Prime Minister, said that Nicolas Sarkozy and Alassane Quattara had talked on the phone and that the French President had wished that a government of national unity be formed to reconcile the people of Cote d'Ivoire. François Juppé, the French Foreign Affairs Minister, announced that it wasn't the wish of France and its military forces to remain behind after the crisis but that its presence would be to accompany the economic recovery of the country.

The French forces Licorne and the UN forces in Cote d'Ivoire opened fire on FDS, the group allied to Laurent Gbagbo. In the meantime, the Forces Républicaines de Cote d'Ivoire, loyal to Gbabgo's rival, carried out their final assault on Abidjan, sending hundreds of heavily armed men to the outskirts of the northern part of the city.

According to the UN-forces, General Philippe Mangou, the leader of the FDS loyal to Gbabgo, had asked his men to surrender their arms to the UN-forces and to place themselves under their protection.

On Wednesday evening, the forces loyal to Quattara attempted to attack Gbabgo's residence so as to remove him physical but unfortunately met resistance from Gbagbo's guards who pushed them back.

Ivoirian community in Paris disagree on intervention by France and UN forces

In Paris, the Ivoirian community is divided on the intervention by the French in the crisis in their country. On Tuesday, several members of the Ivoirian community assembled on Boulevard Barbès to reflect on the latest events in their country. « It is like a football match, with a winner and a loser, and that was the case here » said a young man.

While most Ivoirians support Quattara, there is a small group that supports Gbabgo like this fifty year old man who has Gbagbo's photo on his wall and has a letter from his brother back in Cote d'Ivoire which reads, « With Gbagbo, the West had its foot in the country. If Quattara becomes president, it will have feet, the hands and even the head on us. »

As much as many Ivoirians support Quattara, many do not agree with the way the UN forces and particularly the way France intervened. One young Ivoirian was quoted saying that when France has problems, the Ivoirian people do not land armed to help it solve its problems, so why should the reverse happen?

Fear of attacks on French nationals in Abidjan and calls for street demonstrations

Some Ivoirians foresee a recurrence of what happened during the 2004 crisis and the attack of French nationals living in Abidjan. Ivoirians in Paris were called to assemble at different points in the city so as to demonstrate against the bombings in Abidjan by the French army. A group supporting Gbabgo and which had been organised by Face book meet along the Champs Elysées and their Face book page read: « France continues to bomb and kill people, let's mobilize ourselves »

Gbagbo's departure set on the right path

According to Henri Guiano, Nicolas Sarkozy's special advisor, the international community is in the process of obtaining Gbagbo's departure. The Reuters had reported that the departure was scheduled for the earlier part of April 5. This was however denied by both the UN and the French government.

What does Gbagbo want?

The 5th of April remains known as the date that saw the departure of Gbagbo .After months of fighting and tension in Cote d'Ivoire. The day was marked by declarations and denials made in turns by the different concerned actors.

Still holed up in his private residence, Laurent Gbabgo is holding face to face meetings to negotiate his departure on the terms stipulated by the UN which recognizes Quattara as the elected president with France acting as the intermediary between Gbagbo's camp and Quattara's.

Laurent Gbagbo was willing to step down only to appear on a RCI televised programme and say that he wasn't ready to sign the relevant document. According to Paris, the document that he was to sign was to indicate that he was pulling out and recognizing Alassane Quattara as the president of Cote d'Ivoire.

Laurent Gbagbo still entrenched in his bunker in Abidjan refuses to acknowledge the election of his opponent, Alassane Quattara. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, Quattara, the one who Ivoirians elected as president of Cote d’Ivoire and is recognized by the international community will soon take the reins of power, which which he has been waiting to do for so long.

His fellow travellers

The first on this list of followers are his supporters who endured bullying, harassment, exclusion, imprisonment, torture and even death, but never doubted him. These are constant and most loyal companions, and a vast majority being from the North of Cote d’Ivoire. It is undeniable that Quattara would have never come to power without the unwavering support of all these people, many of whom have actually suffered martyrdom under the Bédié, Guei and Gbagbo regimes. They will require of the new head of state their reward, their share. And Quattara will probably give them important positions in the government.

But in doing so, he must bear in mind that he runs the risk of being accused of setting up an ethnocentric government. It is for this that his predecessors, Gbagbo and Bédié, had been heavily criticized. Murmurs were heard in Abidjan when he began to appoint his first ambassadors. The first four he had sent in January 2011 to Paris, Washington, London and the UN were all from the North. Asked this question, one of his relatives said that the head of state had no choice, because apart from Ally Coulibaly, appointed Ambassador in Paris and who is a former journalist, these were the first professional ambassadors who had shifted to his side, and it was obvious that he would rebalance things when the situation will have normalized.

Henri Konan Bédié, who rallied behind him with his electoral base

Quattara’s second backer who will claim his reward will be Bédié, former head of state. If the successor of Felix Houphouet-Boigny was the inventor of the concept of Ivorian identity, with the objective of preventing Alassane Quattara of ever becoming the President of Côte d'Ivoire, during the reign of Laurent Gbagbo, he reconciled with his former enemy, and Quattara undoubtedly owes him for having worked hard during the campaigns leading to the election. On 15 November 2010, in the residence of Houphouet-Boigny in Yamoussoukro, Bédié solemnly called his supporters, which mainly consist of members of the Baulé ethnic group, the largest, numerically, to vote for Quattara. He had promised in return to appoint the prime minister from the Bédié party, the PDCI-RDA (Parti Démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire and the Democratic Rally of Côte d'Ivoire).

All observers noted that Bédié did a lot of mobilization during Quattara’s campaign more than he did during the first round of his own campaigns. The two men were seen posing on the campaign posters of Quattara, Bédié, standing with his hand on the shoulder of a seated Quattara. The message was understood by the Bédié supporters: to vote for Quattara was also to vote for Bédié, and indeed they voted en masse for Quattara, to the embarrassment of Laurent Gbagbo. No one can deny that without the vote of Baule, Quattara would not have been elected.

More than 1,500 civilians have been killed and more than a million have fled to neighbouring countries ever since the conflict began after the November 28 elections in the country. There have been reports of rape, torture, killings and disappearance of individuals.

Among the events that have been marked by the highest cases of violence are the date of the announcement of the election results on 3rd December, the protests on 16th December and the 11th and 12th January encounter between the police and civilians in Abidjan.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) wants to shed light on the Violence in Cote d'Ivoire

The ICC has already sent its observers to Cote d'Ivoire and is awaiting reports so as to begin investigations into the violence in the country.

Without specifying the suspects to be charged, Louis Moreno Ocampo, the ICC prosecutor, said that he was concerned with the atrocities committed in Cote d'Ivoire, especially in the Western region of the country. He added that discussions with the member states were underway to enlist their support.

The Cote d'Ivoire is not a signatory of the ICC treaty but had acknowledged its jurisdiction and this is what has slowed down Moreno's efforts for he has to ask for permission from the judges and also to get support from diplomats.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

The situation in Cote d'Ivoire remains uncertain especially in the constitutional matters. Quattara has to do his best to reconcile the Ivoirian people, to propose national interest; political, economic and constitutional reforms. All these will require the participation of the Ivorian people as a whole without excluding the opposition while at the same time counting on the support of the international community.

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