Voting motives in the 2025 federal election

Compared to the 2021 election campaign, the 2025 campaign was characterized by a high degree of stability in the poll results. Analyses showed that the willingness to change parties was significantly lower in 2024 than in 2021 and that the distances between the electorates had increased. It remained unclear to what extent this supposed stability also applied to voting decisions. This also raises the question of the actual effects of the election campaign. Based on the evaluations of the “pre- and post-election surveys” – two representative, standardized telephone surveys – this study comes to the following conclusions:

• The most important factors for voters in their election decisions were the parties' positions on issues and their ability to solve future problems. The leading candidates, on the other hand, did not play a decisive role among the eight motives surveyed.
• Looking at the individual constituencies, there is great diversity in the perceived most important issues. Almost every constituency is dominated by a different policy area.
• Three months before the election, the Union was clearly ahead in terms of general problem-solving competence and was able to build on this figure after the federal election. After the 2025 federal election, more eligible voters attributed problem-solving competence to a party than before the election campaign.
• Overall, 60 percent of voters in the federal election made the choice they had already favoured before the federal election campaign.
• For around one-third of all voters, there was something in the election campaign that influenced their voting decision. The main factors mentioned here were party positions, trust or mistrust in individuals, coalition possibilities, and the two most important political issues: the economy and migration.
• The decisive political issues, party programs, coalition considerations, and fundamental trust in parties had a greater influence than individual events (attacks, “migration week”) or public appearances (speeches, television debates).

These and other detailed findings can be found in the full study "Wahlmotive bei der Bundestagswahl 2025" here as a PDF. Please note, to date the study is only available in German.