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Election and Social Research Monitor

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SmarterPix / shtefanyelizaveta

Voting behaviour of people with a migration background

A representative analysis of the voting behaviour in particular of people of Polish, Russian and Turkish origin as well as ethnic German repatriates

Representative results on the voting behaviour of people with a migrant background show significant changes, particularly in the last five years. In this context, the voting behaviour of specific groups, such as those of Turkish, Russian or Polish origin or late repatriates, is always of interest to politicians. Which parties are favoured by Germans with and without a migrant background, as well as by foreigners? Where are the differences and similarities? What political attitudes can explain these voting intentions?

Dominik Hirndorf
September 30, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / nmann77

Analyse des Grundsatzprogramms der AfD im Licht der Extremismustheorie

Über Verschwörungstheorien, ethnisch-biologistische Identitätsvorstellungen, die Ablehnung pluralistischer Demokratie und Einschränkungen von Grundrechten

Im AfD-Grundsatzprogramm von 2016 zeigen sich Strukturelemente extremistischen Denkens. Die AfD konstruiert ein Freund-Feind-Schema („Volk“ vs. „politische Klasse“) und propagiert die Theorie eines „Großen Austauschs“. Freiheitsrechte wie Presse-, Religions- und Wissenschaftsfreiheit werden relativiert. Die Partei idealisiert eine ethnisch homogene Gesellschaft und stellt sich gegen die freiheitlich-demokratische Grundordnung.

Dr. Viola Neu
August 27, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / carolina; generiert mit KI

Break-up of the traffic light coalition without consequences for political opinions

Results from representative trend surveys on political attitudes

Since December 2022, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation has conducted short surveys on the political attitudes of Germans twice a year. The most recent survey was launched shortly after the break-up of the traffic light coalition on 6 November 2024. This study uses survey data from 2022 to 2024 to show how the political attitudes of the German population have changed following the end of the traffic light coalition. What is the situation at the end of 2024 in terms of satisfaction with democracy or confidence in the future? Has there been a shift to the right in terms of self-positioning on the left-right scale? What about populism and conspiracy theories?

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
March 11, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / JFL Photography

Election analysis of the parliamentary elections in Hamburg on 2 March 2025

Report on the preliminary final result, the main determinants as well as voter migration and social structure.

Compared to the Bundestag elections, there are considerable differences in the performance of the parties. Our election analysis provides explanations for these results. Based on the election day surveys and polls in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of top candidates, party competences and political issues for the election result is explained.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Jochen Roose
March 3, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / hanohiki

Analysis of the Bundestag election in Germany on 23 February 2025

Detailed results of the Bundestag election, key determinants of the election outcome, voter migration, and social structure of the electorate.

The CDU/CSU wins the Bundestag election and becomes the strongest parliamentary group. The election analysis explains the result in comparison to the 2021 Bundestag election and looks at voter migration and the main reasons for the election result. Based on the election day polls and surveys in the run-up to the election, the importance of the assessments of top candidates, party competences and political issues for the election result is explained.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
February 24, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / Rawpixel.com

Good Feelings, bad feelings

Representative survey on party images and feelings triggered by parties

Using a representative survey, the study analyses which political terms are associated with which parties. Furthermore, this study analyses which parties trigger certain feelings such as fear or outrage, but also trust and confidence. Both aspects of the perception of parties have already been analysed in previous surveys (2018 and 2020), meaning that a comparison over time is possible for some of the terms and feelings. This makes it possible to trace changes and constancy in party images in 2024.

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
November 27, 2024
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / bluedesign

Increased interest in Europe

Results from representative surveys on European political attitudes after the European elections

The study analyses how the Germans' attitudes towards the European Union have changed. How has trust in the EU developed? To what extent is the EU associated with peace, security, prosperity and strength in the world? Which voting motives were particularly important for the decision to vote for a specific party in the European elections and do the voting motives differ compared to the last Bundestag elections? The results of the study confirm the positive attitude of Germans towards the European Union that previous studies by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation have already shown.

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
November 12, 2024
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / sebastien montier

Concerns and fears of the electorate – Results from representative surveys

What Germans are afraid of – On feelings of threat among the German population

Representative results on feelings of threat show how deeply certain crises affect society. Developments over time provide information on whether fears and concerns have increased and which threats are perceived as permanent. Has the Russian war of aggression had a lasting effect on Germans' sense of security? How great is the fear of the effects of climate change? And how have the feelings of threat among party supporters developed since the last federal election in 2021?

Dominik Hirndorf
October 14, 2024
Monitor Election and Social Research
IMAGO / Schöning

Analysis of the parliamentary election in Brandenburg on September 22, 2024

Report on the preliminary final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure

In the Brandenburg state election the SPD gains slightly more votes than the AfD. Prime minister Dietmar Woidke declared to continue office only if his social democratic party SPD gains more votes than the AfD. This resulted in a highly polarizied election campaign. SPD and AfD profited substantially while all other parties suffered.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
September 23, 2024
Monitor Election and Social Research
adobe stock / Simone

Analysis of the parliamentary election in Saxony on 1 September 2024

Report on the final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure.

The CDU becomes the strongest party in Saxony once again. The election analysis explains the result in comparison to the pre-election, voter migration and the main reasons for the election result. Based on the election day polls and surveys in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of the leading candidates, party competences and the assessment of the government's performance for the election result are explained.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
September 3, 2024
Monitor Election and Social Research

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.