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Election and Social Research Monitor

Publications

IMAGO / IlluPics

Desire to emigrate among the population

Representative survey on emigration wishes and motives of people with and without a migration background

The study examines the motives of potential emigrants. Which people are currently thinking about leaving Germany? What are their reasons for thinking about it? And to which countries would they want to emigrate? Are there systematic differences in motives and target countries between certain groups?

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
May 4, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
IMAGO / Westend61

Party affiliation and party affinity in comparison

Results from representative surveys

Classical party affiliation measures the attachment to one party only. However, the world is more complex. For this reason, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation has introduced a new measurement with party affinity, which also captures simultaneous sympathies. The study examines classic party affiliation, the new party affinity and the relationship between the two measurements. In addition, party affinity types are formed, which differ from each other in the simultaneous proximity to certain parties and the simultaneous rejection of other parties.

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
April 23, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
IMAGO / Zoonar

Analysis of the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate on 22 March 2026

Analysis based on preliminary results, on the main determining factors, voter migration and social structure

The CDU has won the state election in Rhineland-Palatine. Our election analysis provides explanations for the results and examines voter migration and the key determining factors. Based on election day polls and surveys conducted in the run-up to the election, we explain the significance of assessments of leading politicians, party competencies and political issues for the election results.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
March 23, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
IMAGO / Arnulf Hettrich

State election in Baden-Wuerttemberg on 8 March 2026

Analysis based on preliminary results, on the main determining factors, voter migration and social structure

The election results in Baden-Wuerttemberg are influenced by state-specific factors and differ significantly from the political mood at the federal level. Our election analysis provides explanations for the results and examines voter migration and the key determining factors. Based on election day polls and surveys conducted in the run-up to the election, we explain the significance of assessments of leading politicians, party competencies and political issues for the election results.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
March 9, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
MAGO / snowfieldphotography

Poster, Online, Doorstep – Who was Reached by in the Bundestag Election Campaign 2025?

Representative survey on party advertisement in the general election campaign 2025: The perception of posters, flyers, social media ads, canvassing and other ways of campaigning

Parties put a lot of effort into presenting their issues and leaders during the election campaign. They use every means at their disposal: posters, flyers and information brochures, advertisements in newspapers and magazines, advertising on social media, street stands, and even personal contact at the doorstep. But what reaches the voters? Which form of election advertising do they remember? The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung conducted a representative survey on this question. The result in a nutshell: election advertising makes a difference.

Dr. Jochen Roose
January 26, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
smarterpix / fermate

Concepts of Integration in the Population

A Representative Survey on Perceptions of Coexistence Between Immigrants and Locals

How immigrants integrate in Germany and how they are integrated by locals is the subject of intense debate. Multiculturalism or assimilation, melting pot or salad bowl – the debates are controversial and often emotionally charged. But what are the attitudes of people in Germany? How do people who have immigrated, whose parents have immigrated, or who themselves do not have a migration background think about these issues?

Dr. Jochen Roose
January 17, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
SmarterPix / shtefanyelizaveta

Voting behaviour of people with a migration background

A representative analysis of the voting behaviour in particular of people of Polish, Russian and Turkish origin as well as ethnic German repatriates

Representative results on the voting behaviour of people with a migrant background show significant changes, particularly in the last five years. In this context, the voting behaviour of specific groups, such as those of Turkish, Russian or Polish origin or late repatriates, is always of interest to politicians. Which parties are favoured by Germans with and without a migrant background, as well as by foreigners? Where are the differences and similarities? What political attitudes can explain these voting intentions?

Dominik Hirndorf
September 30, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / nmann77

Analyse des Grundsatzprogramms der AfD im Licht der Extremismustheorie

Über Verschwörungstheorien, ethnisch-biologistische Identitätsvorstellungen, die Ablehnung pluralistischer Demokratie und Einschränkungen von Grundrechten

Im AfD-Grundsatzprogramm von 2016 zeigen sich Strukturelemente extremistischen Denkens. Die AfD konstruiert ein Freund-Feind-Schema („Volk“ vs. „politische Klasse“) und propagiert die Theorie eines „Großen Austauschs“. Freiheitsrechte wie Presse-, Religions- und Wissenschaftsfreiheit werden relativiert. Die Partei idealisiert eine ethnisch homogene Gesellschaft und stellt sich gegen die freiheitlich-demokratische Grundordnung.

Dr. Viola Neu
August 27, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / carolina; generiert mit KI

Break-up of the traffic light coalition without consequences for political opinions

Results from representative trend surveys on political attitudes

Since December 2022, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation has conducted short surveys on the political attitudes of Germans twice a year. The most recent survey was launched shortly after the break-up of the traffic light coalition on 6 November 2024. This study uses survey data from 2022 to 2024 to show how the political attitudes of the German population have changed following the end of the traffic light coalition. What is the situation at the end of 2024 in terms of satisfaction with democracy or confidence in the future? Has there been a shift to the right in terms of self-positioning on the left-right scale? What about populism and conspiracy theories?

Dr. Sabine Pokorny
March 11, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research
Adobe Stock / JFL Photography

Election analysis of the parliamentary elections in Hamburg on 2 March 2025

Report on the preliminary final result, the main determinants as well as voter migration and social structure.

Compared to the Bundestag elections, there are considerable differences in the performance of the parties. Our election analysis provides explanations for these results. Based on the election day surveys and polls in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of top candidates, party competences and political issues for the election result is explained.

Dr. Viola Neu, Dr. Jochen Roose
March 3, 2025
Monitor Election and Social Research

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.