Between March 2018 and April 2018, three international conferences were respectively held in Rome, Paris and Brussels, with the declared strategic goal –especially for the Paris and Rome conferences- of shielding the political and economic stability of Lebanon. Theoretically, holding numerous conferences can be positive as long as they are convened under the banner of supporting Lebanon. However, this phenomenon is double-edged owing to its association with a long-standing dilemma that reflects the Lebanese State’s proven inability over time to invest for the future on its own and its permanent need for the help of “alternatives from abroad” to manage its affairs, especially when it comes to ways of facing major economic or political challenges, such as handling the country’s delicate confessional balance, or addressing the crisis of deficit and public debt or deciding Lebanon’s stance with respect of the region’s turmoil and its implication.
The Paris Conference IV (or Cedar 1) held on April 6, 2018, has been confined to one main issue: Providing concessionary loans to Lebanon to finance a Capital Investment Program (CIP) aimed at rehabilitating and developing its utility networks and aging infrastructure. The Paris Conference IV documents - “Final Report”, “Government Vision for Economic Stabilization, Growth and Employment”, “List of Projects” and “Proposed Privatization Projects” - included a capital investment program which covers the next 12 years, divided into three phases of 4 years each. Phases 1 and 2 (2018-2025) target a total of $17.25 billion, while phase 3 targets an amount of $5.7 billion, bringing the total amount to around $23 billion. The transportation sector represents 33%, the electricity sector 21%, while water projects and wastewater treatment account for 18%. In response to the Lebanese request, the conference committed to provide Lebanon with concessionary loans and others subject to guarantees and commitments, amounting to some $11 billions, with 7.5% being grants.
The paper analyses the economic situation of Lebanon before the conference and the documents the Lebanese Government submitted to the Paris Conference IV. Furthermore the author evaluates the CIP, its aims, implementation and impact, which are closely linked to the election of a new parliament in May 2018. The paper concludes with a summary of alternative future options.
The study is available in English and Arabic.
