Following up on the White Paper...
Released on 16 October 2025, the roadmap follows up the White Paper on European Defence Readiness from March 2025[1], the strategic document to boost European defence and ultimately pave the way towards a defence union. It is the next logical step for guiding the member states in implementing this strategy, with a clear goal: making Europe capable of defending itself by 2030. Although the roadmap connects seamlessly with the White Paper, it carries responsibility after the historic June 2025 NATO summit, where allies pledged to spend 5 % of their GDP on defence - initiating a burden shifting from the US to Europe. Consequently, the roadmap serves as a guide for EU countries to meet NATO capability targets and strategically employ EU defence funding to address military priorities. In this new context, the roadmap aims to find the sweet spot between keeping EU defence complementary to NATO, the primary security guarantor, and respecting member states’ national sovereignty in defence matters.
Like the White Paper, the roadmap is a direct response to the Russian threat, which is regarded to be persistent for the foreseeable future. Yet, the urgency of action has tremendously increased in the weeks prior to the release of the roadmap, with exacerbating hybrid threats, such as the recurring violation of the European airspace, particularly by alleged Russian drones.
Closing Capability Gaps
The burden shifting within NATO, the evolution of modern warfare and the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine have led Europeans to identify numerous capability gaps. Nevertheless, these gaps also exist due to decades of underinvestment in defence by member states. Closing these gaps means not only strengthening the European defence capabilities, but also those for supporting Ukraine.
The roadmap lays out nine capability gaps.
(1) Air and missile defence shall be improved by an integrated shield against all air threats. This capability is majorly addressed by two flagship initiatives: the European Air Shield and the European Space Shield.
(2) Europe heavily relies on the US in the field of strategic enablers. This refers in particular to C4ISR capabilities, (command, control, surveillance, interception, and reconnaissance systems) plus strategic airlift and air-to-air refuelling aircrafts, as identified by the White Paper.
(3) Military mobility is one of the key capability gaps. This means that member states must be able to move armed forces within 5 days across the continent. In November 2025, the EU Commission already proposed a Military Mobility package to create an EU-wide mobility area by 2027[2] – a so-called “Military Schengen” as famously proposed by Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.[3] In practical terms, this means that in case of defence, military shall have priority access to infrastructure (roads, rails etc.) and there shall be no customs for moving equipment across intra-European borders. In addition, military mobility is a key responsibility for European allies within NATO.
(4) EU member states need to modernize their artillery systems including long-range precision and missile capabilities.
(5) The stockpiles of missiles and ammunition shall be strategically managed in coherence with industry capacities. This capability is particularly relevant for continuous support of Ukraine.
(6) Drone and counter-drone capabilities shall be boosted by creating a comprehensive unmanned fleet with autonomous operability at air, ground, surface and underwater. This is a significant lesson from the war in Ukraine where drones have proven highly efficient. After all, European capability gaps have become evident in recent months when drones frequently violated European airspace.
(7) Connected to drone capabilities, the roadmap identifies cyber and AI as critical warfare of the future. It also includes European owned cloud services to store and process sensitive data.
(8) Ground combat emphasizes that while focusing on air related capabilities the ground domain must not be neglected.
(9) Maritime capabilities allude to the Baltic and the Black Sea as strategic regions of potential conflict with Russia.
European Readiness Flagships
As part of the effort to close the outlined critical capability gaps, the roadmap proposes four initial flagship projects and outlines the timeline for their implementation: (1) the European Drone Defence Initiative, (2) the Eastern Flank Watch, (3) the European Air Shield, and (4) the European Space Shield.
Due to the significant vulnerabilities in European air defence, the Eastern Flank Watch and the European Drone Defence Initiative are identified as the most urgent projects, with the Commission aiming for member states to endorse both by the end of this year. The counter-drone capabilities of the so-called “drone wall” will form part of the Eastern Flank Watch, a broader defence network integrating air and ground defence with maritime security to shield the Baltic and Black Sea regions from both conventional and hybrid threats posed by Russia and Belarus.[4] The European Air Shield, envisioned as a comprehensive air defence system, is intended to protect Europe from all types of aerial threats, while the Space Shield will safeguard EU space assets against hostile counterspace activities. The inclusion of the Space Shield among the flagships underscores the extent to which space has emerged as a key defence domain in EU strategic thinking. Notably, the roadmap ambitiously aims for all Readiness flagships to be launched in the first half of 2026.
What’s next?
To build up the capabilities and launch the proposed flagships, member states shall form so-called capability coalitions, that are led or co-led by individual member states which spearhead a specific capability. The Commission will act as a facilitator, providing funding and ensuring coherence. These coalitions are going to be announced by the end of 2025 and launched by mid-2026. So far, several countries have already signalled their interest to lead in specific areas, e.g. Germany on the Air Shield. [5]
Open questions remain regarding the extent to which close non-EU allies with considerable defence capabilities, such as the UK and Norway, will be included in the coalitions and Readiness flagships. The Commission has recently concluded a deal for Canada to participate in SAFE[6], while talks with the UK have not been successful yet.[7]
To keep track of the progress made on closing capability gaps, there will be an annual review to review priorities to help steer funding towards these priority areas. In particular, member states shall create incentives for defence industry to align political capability priorities with the economic interests of industry. Fostering innovation in the defence tech sector shall further contribute to addressing capability gaps. Moreover, the Commission plans for the defence readiness omnibus to be adopted by the end of this year to facilitate defence investments on the path towards a Single Market for Defence.
Early 2026 is also expected to mark the launch of the Drone Alliance with Ukraine, which promotes EU-Ukraine joint ventures as part of the broader objective of integrating Ukraine more closely into Europe’s industrial base.
What are the major challenges?
National sovereignty concerns: Overall, the roadmap seeks to avoid the impression that the Commission is overstepping its competencies by reiterating that member states remain sovereign on defence: Participating in the proposed capability coalitions and Readiness flagships remains voluntary, the Commission positions itself an enabler and coordinator. In other words, the roadmap navigates the balancing act of advancing towards a Defence Union without the impression of too much sovereignty pooling.
Costs and benefits of stronger EU oversight:
The map introduces rigorous metrics and goalposts to monitor the progress of defence efforts through an annual review by the European Defence Agency (EDA), which will be strengthened to meet this responsibility. This review requires member states to share sensitive information about their national militaries, which poses the question to what extend they will be willing to comply with this more extensive oversight and equip the EDA accordingly.[8] This is likely to depend on whether the financial incentives of participating in the defence frameworks will outweigh the administrative burden imposed by the monitoring and planning process and whether these frameworks offer sufficient flexibility.
What about the money? So far, the roadmap does not introduce new funding sources apart from the SAFE instrument (€150 bn in loans), the newly approved EDIP (€1.5bn) and the €131bn included in the proposal for the new MFF. Even considering the relaxation of fiscal rules on defence spending, these measures do not suffice to help reach the 800bn of extra investments in defence that the Commission calls for until 2030.
Deterring Russia – a Eurocrat mammoth project?
By titling the roadmap “Preserving Peace”, the EU underscores that the status quo is peace. From this firm and confident starting point, Europe must be able to defend itself so it can deter Russia and maintain this status quo – reflecting a logic of “deterrence over defence”. Defence Readiness is framed as a 360-degree approach – signalling that the Russian threat extends beyond the Eastern Flank. This framing is designed to resonate with all member states, including Southern Europeans that do not perceive the same immediate threat from Russia as the countries with closer regional proximity.
Notably, the roadmap compares the effort of European defence readiness by 2030 to the mammoth projects of creating the single market and launching the Euro – implying that the Commission expects to play a central role. Overall, the roadmap provides a promising framework for setting the wheels in motion, but its success ultimately depends on the member states’ occupying the driver’s seat.
Expert Comment: Ionela Ciolan, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
At its core, the roadmap addresses a significant structural weakness: Europe’s fragmented defence landscape. Achieving proper defence readiness requires significant investment in modern, combat-relevant capabilities, as well as a revitalised industrial base that can innovate rapidly and produce in high volumes in times of crisis.
Thus, the roadmap proposes the formation of Capability Coalitions across nine critical areas, including air and missile defence, artillery systems, drones, military mobility, artificial intelligence and maritime security. These coalitions will strengthen Europe’s strategic posture and improve joint procurement through SAFE, while also enhancing interoperability among member states. Moreover, the flagship projects are designed to reinforce the protection of European territory and cultivate a shared defence culture within the EU. Yet the roadmap also acknowledges current political realities: the member states retain full sovereignty over defence planning. While the Commission acts as a facilitator, providing a one-stop shop for technical assistance and aligning national actions with EU funding instruments, the member states remain in the lead.
Recognising that NATO remains the bedrock of European security, the EU’s initiatives consciously embrace complementarity, strengthening the European pillar of the Alliance rather than duplicating it — a point also highlighted in the roadmap. All in all, the roadmap represents the EU’s most ambitious effort to date to boost defence preparedness. However, its success will depend on implementation and the willingness of the member states to adhere to the roadmap’s objective.
[1] ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030
[2]European Commission: Military mobility - Mobility and Transport
[3]European Commission: Commission moves towards ‘Military Schengen' and transformation of defence industry
[4] Defense Security Monitor: The EU's Defense Readiness Roadmap
[5] Euractiv: National leaders to Commission: We’ll plug the defence gaps – see you in 2026 | Euractiv
[6]European Commission: Joint Statement
[7] Politico: EU-UK talks on defence deal break down
[8] CER INSIGHT: The Eu’s Defence Readiness 2030 Roadmap
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