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IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Foiled Coup in Armenia? Conflict with Church Leadership Escalates

Yerevan reports the thwarting of a violent coup with Moscow's fingerprints

On the afternoon of June 27, 2025, dramatic scenes unfolded in Etchmiadzin, the seat of the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, located 20 km west of Yerevan. Special police units moved in to detain Mikael Ajapahyan. The archbishop, along with other church leaders, had openly opposed the government, but hundreds of people—including clergy and ordinary citizens—blocked the path until the uniformed officers withdrew. When the wanted man voluntarily turned himself in to the authorities later that evening, asserting his innocence, he became just one of fifteen high-profile arrests within a matter of days. Nikol Pashinyan’s government claims to have thwarted a violent coup attempt. Critics, however, accuse it of launching a politically motivated campaign against the Armenian Church and the opposition, and of betraying the country to its archrivals, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Societal divisions appear more entrenched than they have been in decades. One year ahead of the pivotal parliamentary elections in the summer of 2026, the current escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly polarized debate over the country’s direction, as Armenia stands at a historic crossroads in its foreign policy.

Jakob Wöllenstein
July 18, 2025
Country reports

Polarisierung und Antisystem in der Slowakei

Neue Publikation des DEKK Instituts, 2025

Misstrauen gegenüber dem System und Polarisierung sind bis zu einem gewissen Grad gesunde Tendenzen, aber wenn sie ein bestimmtes Maß überschreiten, hat das Land ein Stabilitätsproblem und steht möglicherweise vor radikalen Veränderungen. Die Slowakei hat damit gute Erfahrungen gemacht und ein Großteil der Bevölkerung erinnert sich noch lebhaft daran - das Land erlebte 1989 einen radikalen Systemwandel. Das Ziel der Autoren ist es nicht, Menschen zu stigmatisieren, die dem System nicht vertrauen. Die Autoren sehen das Anwachsen von Polarisierung und Systemfeindlichkeit als Symptom für reale oder wahrgenommene Probleme des Systems, die untersucht und angegangen werden müssen. Mit diesem Ziel, und keinem anderen, wurde diese Studie erstellt.

Pavol Kosnáč, Hugo Gloss
July 17, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Bestimage

Keir Starmer's first year

First-year political record and German-British friendship treaty

One year after taking office, Prime Minister Keir Starmer surprises with a foreign policy record that even sceptics acknowledge. He has succeeded in repositioning the UK as a global and European player - with initiatives to support Ukraine, to build and expand European defense capabilities and through international trade agreements. One of his most important successes is undoubtedly the rapprochement with Europe. At the beginning of his term of office, Starmer announced a “Brexit reset” in order to advance cooperation with European partners. Relations with Germany in particular are a high priority. During the first official visit by Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz on July 17, a comprehensive bilateral agreement will be signed with Germany - the most far-reaching agreement that the UK has ever concluded with a single European country. Starmer himself speaks of a “generational treaty”. Domestically, however, the balance sheet is mixed. The Prime Minister is under pressure - from his own party, from an increasingly dissatisfied electorate, and from the opposition. The right-wing populists from Reform UK are a particular concern. His government policy sometimes seems contradictory: pragmatic in its implementation but often lacking a discernible guiding principle. Since taking office, Starmer has shown considerable ideological flexibility - a course that is causing friction within the party. Even before the election, he had already led Labour towards the political center; in many areas, his government is now following the agenda of its Conservative predecessors. This change of course is particularly evident in migration policy, but is also reflected in other areas: deregulation of environmental protection in some areas, cuts to the welfare state and a significantly increased defense budget at the expense of international development cooperation. On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Starmer government, one might provocatively ask whether Labor are the better conservatives.

Dr. Canan Atilgan, Sebastian Schnorrenberg, Marcus Leal
July 16, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

Bulgaria and the Euro

The most important steps ahead of the 2026 introduction

Bulgaria continues to prepare intensively for adopting the euro. On July 8, the European Parliament and ECOFIN—the Council for Economic and Financial Affairs of the Council of the European Union, composed of the finance and economic ministers of the EU member states—gave their final approval for the country to join the eurozone starting January 1, 2026. First, the European Parliament in Strasbourg voted in favour of Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone by a large majority. ECOFIN then unanimously adopted all the necessary decisions in Brussels. This was the last hurdle for the country to overcome, making the introduction of the euro irrevocable. Bulgaria meets all EU convergence criteria ("Maastricht criteria"), its euro adoption is not based on any political compromise.

Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes, Borislaw Wankow
July 16, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Le Pictorium

Chad under stress test

Between the Sudan crisis, Russia's courtship and the division of the elite

Challenges are mounting in Chad in central Africa. More than one million Sudanese refugees have arrived in the east and more are coming as there is no end to the war in the neighbouring country. At Lake Chad jihadists are mounting more sophisticated attacks with drones while the presidency seems since the exit of French troops divided over the country’s future course. Russia is trying at the same time to gain a foot hold in Chad after having won over Sahel countries Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as allies.

Ulf Laessing
July 15, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Brazil Photo Press

South Africa and BRICS+

Foreign policy strategies and economic interests in the BRICS+ area of conflict

South Africa, the most industrialized country on the African continent with a population of around 63 million, has been a member of what was then known as the BRICS grouping of five countries since 2010.

Gregor Jaecke, Dr. Christoph Wiedenroth
July 8, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Brazil Photo Press

Ethiopia's BRICS membership

Between exaggerated expectations and geopolitical rivalry

On 1 January 2024, Ethiopia officially joined the BRICS group — a highly symbolic step that marks the country’s turn away from the traditional West and towards a supposedly more multipolar world order (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). Addis Ababa presented the accession as a historic success for its foreign policy. It was seen as a sign of a return to geopolitical relevance, opening the door to new economic and diplomatic opportunities. However, this rhetoric conceals an increasingly visible discrepancy between Ethiopia's expectations of BRICS and the group of states' structural and political realities. However, the absence of economic returns to date, coupled with the emergence of new geopolitical tensions among members, calls into question the benefits of accession.

Lukas Kupfernagel
July 7, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Le Pictorium

From a “Dormant to a Leading Middle Power"

Foreign and Security Policy of Germany’s New Government

Germany finds itself alongside its European allies and partners in a complex security environment. Russian aggression in Ukraine continues to threaten broader European security, while the concerning escalation in the Middle East, transatlantic trade tensions, and global power competition are further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Maša Ocvirk
July 4, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

China ahead of the BRICS summit in Rio

"Rien ne va plus" or "now more than ever"?

For the first time since assuming office in 2013, Chinese President and Communist Party leader Xi Jinping will not attend a BRICS summit in person. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent the People’s Republic of China at the gathering in Rio de Janeiro. From Beijing’s perspective, the ongoing conflicts — and the direct involvement of fellow BRICS members such as Russia and Iran — have significantly dampened expectations for the summit’s success. Against this backdrop, signs are mounting that China’s enthusiasm for the BRICS format is waning, giving way to growing disillusionment and lowered ambitions.

David Merkle, Chengzhan Zhuang
July 4, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Indonesia's first BRICS summit after accession

Why Indonesia joins BRICS and still remains independent

In January 2025, Indonesia surprisingly joined the BRICS community of states. This raised concerns among Western observers that Indonesia could abandon its traditional foreign policy position of ‘non-alignment’ and move closer to China and Russia. However, the accession is actually part of the Indonesian government's strategy to integrate its own country into the most important multilateral formats. It is therefore not a contradiction for Indonesia to push for its own accession to the OECD at the same time. The Western international community should support Indonesia's integration efforts and make concrete offers of cooperation to the Indonesian government. Indonesia's BRICS accession could then even have a positive effect for the West and strengthen the balance within the BRICS - and thus weaken China's dominant influence in the group.

Dr. Denis Suarsana
July 3, 2025
Country reports

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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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