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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

Senate elections in France

The Senate as an anchor of stability during a turbulent presidential election campaign

The whole of Europe is eagerly awaiting the 2027 presidential election in France. Yet it is often forgotten that during late summer 2026, on 27 September 2026, another important election will shape the political Rentrée: the partial renewal of the Senate. The upper house of the French Parliament comprises 348 senators, who are elected for six-year terms, with half the seats being up for election every three years. The last Senate elections on 24 September 2023 confirmed the existing centre-right majority. The Senate is not elected directly, but by an electoral college (Grands Électeurs), which is predominantly made up of local councillors and members of parliament at national and regional level; the election takes place at the level of the départements (which represent the constituencies for the Senate elections) and the minimum age for standing for election is 24. The electoral system varies depending on the size of the constituencies: in départements with up to three seats to be filled – which constitute the majority – a two-round first-past-the-post system applies, while in larger départements with four or more seats, elections are held under a proportional representation system. This system gives smaller and rural local authorities, in particular, disproportionate influence. Against this institutional backdrop, there are strong indications that the Senate will continue to be characterised by a stable centre-right majority even after the elections. Nevertheless, a few months before the presidential election, politically symbolic shifts could occur – particularly through the possible formation of a separate parliamentary group by the Rassemblement National (RN). At present, the party holds only three seats in the Senate; however, given its strengthened local roots, it could reach the threshold of ten seats required to form a parliamentary group.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 16, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO/Dreamstime

Djibouti’s geostrategic importance

Country profile, external actors and Germany’s role in security policy

For some time now, the Horn of Africa has been the scene of strategic competition between external powers, which are continually expanding their military and economic influence in the region. Within the context of this rivalry, the small coastal state of Djibouti is of particular importance. Owing to its geostrategic location at the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, five states have already established permanent military bases there. Although Germany is not part of this group of countries, until a few years ago the German Navy was stationed off the Horn of Africa to work alongside European partners in combating maritime threats such as smuggling at sea, piracy and terrorism. In view of the recent resurgence of Somali piracy and the latent threat to international merchant shipping posed by the Yemeni Houthi militia, securing maritime trade routes in the Horn of Africa is more important than ever for Western nations.

Jan-Ole Voß, Karl Wiesemeyer
July 16, 2026
Country reports
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

Ukraine - Barrierefreiheit zwischen sowjetischem Erbe und europäischen Werten

Inklusion weltweit - aktueller Stand aus der Ukraine

Die Ukraine hatte kaum begonnen, sich von der sowjetischen Logik der Absonderung von Menschen mit Behinderungen zu lösen und menschenwürdige, inklusive Strukturen aufzubauen, als sie von einem Krieg überrollt wurde. Der großangelegte russische Angriffskrieg zerstört nicht nur Städte und Infrastruktur, sondern vergrößert täglich die Zahl der Menschen mit dauerhaften Beeinträchtigungen – unter Verteidigern ebenso wie unter der Zivilbevölkerung. Barrierefreiheit ist kein Randthema, sondern eine Frage von Würde, Teilhabe und Zukunftsfähigkeit.

Dr. Jan Philipp Wölbern, Maryna Mchedleshvili
July 14, 2026
Country reports with a difference
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

Zwischen Reform und Realität – Politische Partizipation von Menschen mit Behinderung in Jordanien

Inklusion weltweit – aktueller Stand aus Jordanien

Jordanien hat in den vergangenen Jahren wichtige Reformprozesse angestoßen, um politische Teilhabe auszubauen und Menschen mit Behinderungen stärker in gesellschaftliche und politische Strukturen einzubinden. Neue gesetzliche Grundlagen, institutionelle Entwicklungen und internationale Initiativen prägen diesen Wandel und setzen Impulse für mehr Inklusion. Gleichzeitig stehen diese Entwicklungen in einem Kontext, in dem bestehende Strukturen, gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen und laufende Umsetzungsprozesse die tatsächliche Teilhabe weiterhin limitieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund bewegt sich die politische Partizipation von Menschen mit Behinderungen in Jordanien im Spannungsfeld zwischen Reformanspruch und Realität.

Amelie Hohmann, Samantha Mirus
July 9, 2026
Country reports with a difference
IMAGO / Bestimage

Le Pen intends to stand as a candidate

The Court of Appeal’s ruling and its political consequences in France

The Court of Appeal’s ruling against Marine Le Pen on 7 July 2026 marks the start of a new phase in the run to the 2027 presidential election. Whilst the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group has confirmed her candidacy and announced further legal action by appealing to the Court of Cassation – which will examine whether the two lower courts committed any procedural errors – the RN is banking on the leadership duo of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. The ruling marks the actual start of the presidential election campaign, which is likely to further deepen political polarisation in France.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 8, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Lucian Alecu

Frozen Conflict: Government Crisis in Bucharest Continues

Parliament goes into summer recess without electing a new prime minister, while confidence in President Dan is eroding due to questionable crisis management

Romania’s parliamentary summer recess has begun anything but quietly. The vote of no confidence against the government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan (PNL) on 5 May triggered fierce political battles across the Romanian political landscape. The vote itself was widely perceived as a sacrilege: the motion of no confidence was jointly introduced by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). It remains unclear which side was effectively enabling the other. The motion received 281 votes—well above the 233 votes required for its adoption. Following the vote, PSD members withdrew from the government. Since then, Bolojan has continued to serve in a caretaker capacity, together with the reform-oriented Save Romania Union (USR) and the party representing the Hungarian minority (UDMR). Acting as a mediator in the increasingly tense political situation, President Nicușor Dan is steadily losing the confidence of many of his former supporters.

Dr. Stefan Hofmann, Mihai Marc
July 8, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

Framework Agreement Between Lebanon and Israel

A First Step Toward Peace or Merely a Temporary Respite?

On June 26, the United States, Israel, and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework agreement in Washington. In the agreement, Lebanon and Israel—still technically in a state of war—express their commitment to laying the foundations for lasting peace, stable security arrangements, and good-neighborly relations. Given the decades of hostility between the two countries and the ongoing conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah, the accord marks a significant and potentially historic development. Whether the agreement represents the beginning of a genuine peace process or simply a temporary de-escalation, however, will depend largely on its implementation. By engaging in direct negotiations with Israel, the Lebanese government seeks to reinforce state sovereignty and assert greater control over national decision-making. At the same time, it aims to separate Lebanon’s political future from the broader dynamics of U.S.–Iran negotiations, thereby limiting Tehran’s influence over Lebanese affairs and strengthening Beirut’s autonomy on the regional stage.

Christina Baade
July 7, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Zoonar

Cuba before the upheaval?

Humanitarian Crisis, U.S. Pressure, and the Future of the Cuban Regime

Cuba is at a historic turning point. The socialist economic system of the left-wing dictatorship is now more dysfunctional than ever before and, following the substantial loss of external support from Venezuela, has become barely sustainable. At the same time, the humanitarian crisis has reached unprecedented levels, while U.S. pressure on the regime continues to intensify. As Washington seeks to promote political change on the island, much of the Cuban population is struggling with daily survival. Whether the regime can continue to withstand mounting internal and external pressure, or whether Cuba is on the verge of a fundamental political transformation, is likely to become one of the defining questions of the coming months.

Johannes Hügel, Nikolaus Rischbieter
July 6, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

250 Years of the United States - The Eternal American Dream

Background and Context on the 250th Anniversary of the United States of America

President Donald Trump announced that this year’s Independence Day and its accompanying celebrations would be “the most spectacular Trump rally of them all.” It is a statement that carries significance. Not only because of its tonality, but also because it places a traditionally bipartisan holiday - one meant to celebrate the nation as a whole -into a political context. Almost as if it were his personal celebration. Between these two images, the nearly timeless ideal of a united country and a present in which national symbols are increasingly viewed through a political lens, the United States is moving toward its 250th anniversary.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Chiara Stäbler, Helena Hubo
July 3, 2026
Country reports
KAS

Will Nepal’s New Government Break Old Patterns?

A Gender Analysis of the First 65 Days of the Shah Government

An analysis of Nepal's evolving landscape of women's political representation, assessing whether increased participation reflects meaningful institutional change or masks enduring structural barriers to gender equality in governance.

Megha Sarmah
June 30, 2026
Country reports

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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.