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Political rentrée to work as the election campaign gets underway

France faces a turbulent autumn

With the political return to work, the run-up to the 2027 presidential election campaign effectively begins in France. Although there are still several months to go before the election, the political camps are already clearly staking out their positions. Initial debates, new candidacies, and controversial socio-political initiatives show that the contest for France’s political future is gathering pace. The Senate elections on 27 September are likely to realign the political balance of power and thus inject further momentum into the nascent election campaign. At the same time, the government faces an imminent test: the budget debate. The tabling of the draft budget on 30 September and the planned vote on 17 November will serve as a decisive test of the ability of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government to act. At the same time, the passing of the budget will reveal the extent to which the French National Assembly is capable of compromise at all under the current majority arrangements. Autumn could thus become a political stress test – and at the same time decisively shape the balance of power ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
September 8, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Christian Ohde

Mexico 2026: Uncertainty in North American Free Trade—New Opportunities with Europe?

Two years of President Claudia Sheinbaum

After nearly two years in office, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum continues to enjoy high approval ratings, while her ruling party, MORENA, dominates the country’s political landscape. The opposition appears lackluster and disorganized. The overhaul of state institutions begun under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, López Obrador (AMLO), is moving forward. The much-criticized judicial reform, along with weakened institutional checks and balances, raises significant doubts about the development of the rule of law and the separation of powers in Mexico. Organized crime also remains a major challenge, despite initial improvements in security. At the same time, uncertainty about Mexico’s economic future is growing after the United States—the country’s most important trading partner—refused to grant a long-term extension of the T-MEC in July 2026. This, in turn, opens up opportunities to expand economic and political relations as part of the diversification of international economic ties and the Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) between Mexico and the EU.

Johannes Hügel, Nikolaus Rischbieter
September 8, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Lucian Alecu

Political Power Play with European Funds as Leverage

Timișoara Mayor Dominic Fritz at the Center of Political Maneuvering

770 million Euro from the EU-funded National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) have become the leverage for the next political move by Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), as they seek to sideline an unwelcome political rival. Their target is Dominic Fritz, chairman of the liberal USR party and mayor of the city of Timișoara, who is likely to lose his mayoral office as a result of a newly adopted law. The apparent objective is not only to remove Fritz from office but also to weaken the cohesion of the current governing partners, USR and the National Liberal Party (PNL).

Dr. Stefan Hofmann, Mihai Marc, Ilinca Iordache
September 4, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

Brazil’s Election Choice

Between Lula, Bolsonarism and the Conservative Reality

In October, Brazil will be electing not only a president but also the country’s future power structure. Even if the incumbent president, Lula, is re-elected, this would not amount to a sweeping left-wing victory: the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate, state governors and the political forces of the pragmatic so-called Centrão remain predominantly conservative and will significantly constrain the room for manoeuvre of any government.

Maximilian Hedrich
August 31, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

The State of Local Government in South Africa

Between Crisis and Reform

South Africa’s municipalities are entering the 2026 local elections amid a deep governance crisis marked by failing service delivery, deteriorating infrastructure, financial distress, and declining public trust. These challenges have contributed to growing political fragmentation and increased uncertainty over coalition governance in major metropolitan areas. At the same time, a range of reform initiatives seeks to strengthen administrative capacity, improve accountability, and enhance the effectiveness of local government. Policy solutions already exist; their success depends on overcoming chronic implementation shortcomings.

Gregor Jaecke, Nina Krasel
August 26, 2026
Country reports
pronoia/stock.adobe.com

The Chișinău Declaration

A ‚Human Rights Shift‘ in Migration?

In May 2026, the Member States of the Council of Europe agreed on the so-called Chişinău Declaration. In this declaration, the governments call on the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to place greater weight on national interests in its migration-related case law. Although the declaration is not legally binding, it could mark the beginning of a fundamental reform of European asylum law.

Prof. Dr. Daniel Thym
August 21, 2026
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / Le Pictorium

Controversial First Steps of the Radev Cabinet

The foreign and fiscal policy direction of Bulgaria’s new government has caused irritation during its first 100 days in office

The first 100 days of the Bulgarian government under Prime Minister Rumen Radev have attracted considerable attention both domestically and internationally. Formed after the electoral victory of the Progressive Bulgaria (PB) party, the government has come under criticism for its contradictory policies and, at times, pro-Russian orientation. Radev rejected Bulgaria’s participation in the “Coalition of the Willing” supporting Ukraine, threatened to veto discussions on an EU sanctions package due to the proposed sanctions against Kremlin-linked individuals, and caused confusion through unclear positions at a summit in Kyiv. At the same time, however, the Bulgarian Parliament approved the temporary deployment of U.S. aerial refueling aircraft in Bulgaria, prompting critical reactions from Iran. Domestically, the government is facing strong pressure because of a budget deficit of 5.7%. Credit rating agencies and the opposition have warned about the lack of reforms and the growing burden of public debt.

Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes, Borislaw Wankow
August 20, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Newscom / GDA

100 days of Laura Fernández’s government

‘Continuity of change’ or a test of resilience for the rule of law?

On 15 August 2026, Laura Fernández’s government will have been in office for 100 days. In terms of policy, programme and communication, it is largely continuing the populist course set under Rodrigo Chaves. With its absolute majority in parliament, it has significantly greater scope for action than the previous government. At the same time, tensions between the executive, the judiciary and independent oversight bodies have intensified. Conflicts over the appointment of members to the Constitutional Chamber, attacks on court rulings, and proposed reforms in the areas of security and the judiciary are fuelling fears that the checks and balances of the rule of law may be undermined. Whether the government can implement its reform agenda without damaging the institutional foundations of Costa Rican democracy is one of the key questions of its term in office.

Michaela Braun, Sergio Araya
August 17, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Newscom / AdMedia

Iraq’s New Government Between Domestic Constraints and External Pressures

Leading without a Base?

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi took office in May 2026 as a surprise candidate – with no political party, no seats in parliament and a cabinet left incomplete, in the middle of a war that pits Iraq’s two key part-ners, the US and Iran, against each other and has closed the Strait of Hormuz. So far, his lack of a politi-cal base appears to have worked in his favour rather than against him, however. What this means for his capacity to govern is a different question, and the answer seems to depend on the file: an advantage wherever power runs through the executive, a handicap wherever it must be assembled vote by vote.

Veronika Ertl, Yara AlZubi
August 12, 2026
Country reports
© mit der KI Adobe Firefly generiert, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

‚Zeitenwende‘ for the Principle of Separation! From Information Exchange to Joint Risk Assessment

Approaches to Help the Police and Intelligence Agencies Cope with the New Situation

Germany’s security architecture is tailored to an era of clearly distinct threats. However, hybrid threats such as espionage, sabotage, cyber operations, and disinformation transcend the jurisdictional boundaries of government agencies and make it difficult to conduct an effective threat assessment. This paper develops proposals for closer cooperation between the police and intelligence services through joint analyses, early risk detection, and institutionalized situation assessment.

Franca König, Sandra Lukosek, Till Nierhoff
August 10, 2026
Facts and Findings

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