Country Reports

The US strategy in West Africa under Trump

America Engaged or America First?

Following the forced evacuation of the drone base in Niger, the USA is realigning its security strategy in West Africa. Washington now wants to strengthen partnerships with coastal countries such as Benin. However, the inauguration of Donald Trump marks the beginning of a period of uncertainty – is there a threat of a complete withdrawal? Russia, China and Turkey would benefit.

"Plenković is playing chess, everyone else is just playing ‘Ludo’”

The ruling HDZ party emerges surprisingly stronger from the 2025 Croatian local elections

Anyone who thought that the 2025 local elections would be a kind of swan song for Croatia's ruling HDZ party after its disastrous presidential elections at the beginning of the year was sorely disappointed: Not only did the conservative Christian Democrats win more mayoral and county council seats in this election than 2021, they also managed to maintain their position as Croatia's only truly national party with a stable voter base and functioning party structures throughout the country. In contrast, the Social Democrats emerged weakened from the local elections, while the smaller parties once again failed to establish themselves as national political players. The real winner of the local elections is likely to be the HDZ party leader, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. He has proven himself to be a clever strategist and cool-headed power politician, putting his rivals in their place for the time being.

Latvian local elections in June 2025

Voices of the centre, shadows of the fringes – Latvia's political fork in the road?

On 7 June 2025, Latvia held nationwide local elections for new local councils – a date that would normally attract limited international attention. This year's local elections in Latvia's capital Riga became a barometer of sentiment for the entire country: while populist actors such as Ainārs Šlesers made gains, the forces of the democratic centre were able to maintain their position – for the time being. Despite a slight increase in voter turnout, more than half of eligible voters stayed away from the polls – a result that underlines the deeper social tensions in the country. The east of Latvia remains a problem child in terms of security policy – with a view to Moscow. The mayor of Riga, Vilnis Ķirsis, and his pro-European party "New Unity" prevailed despite the difficult starting position and consolidated their role as a stabilizing force in the Latvian capital.

Elections in crisis

Weeks before the presidential elections, Bolivia is going through deep political and economic turmoil

The Andean country is confronted with a whole series of crises and conflicts, which, taken together, could jeopardize the constitutional conduct of the elections. At the same time, the Bolivian population has high hopes for the planned election, which many hope will provide a way out of the severe economic crisis. They insist on adhering to the election date and do not want to allow their right to democratic participation to be deprived by political power struggles or the country's economic problems.

Bulgaria ready for the eurozone

European Commission and European Central Bank with positive convergence report

18 years after joining the EU, Bulgaria is ready to adopt the single European currency on 1 January 2026. The European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) issued a positive assessment for the country in their extraordinary convergence report on 4 June. According to the report, Bulgaria now fulfils all the criteria for joining the eurozone. This means that the most important condition for the introduction of the euro has been met. The final political decision still has to be taken by the EU Council in the format of the Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) on 8 July. A qualified majority is sufficient for this and no consensus is required.

Making a Statement in Washington

Chancellor Merz's first visit to President Tump

Friedrich Merz has completed his first visit to Washington, DC as Federal Chancellor. After spending a night at the President’s guest house, he had his first in-person meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House. Merz later stated that there was “a good atmosphere for discussion.”

Local elections in Lebanon

Important milestone for the new government and indicator of the political balance in the country

Despite organisational hurdles, political resistance and a still precarious security situation in many places, municipal and mukhtar elections were held across Lebanon in May 2025, after a three-year delay. The elections are an important step towards strengthening the country's state institutions and are a success for the new government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, which has been in office since the beginning of the year. The elections also offer an initial indication of the country's political balance of power following the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.

Election of judges in Mexico

Between the promise of democracy and the concentration of power

With the constitutional amendment of 2024, the Mexican rule of law is increasingly eroding. The separation of powers and relative independence of the judiciary, which has been in force to date – albeit in need of reform and prone to criticism – will be undermined and undermined by the direct election of judges throughout the country and at all levels, which will be held for the first time on 1 June 2025. The concept behind it, to give the Mexican people the decision-making authority over the selection of their judges, is extremely questionable in view of the selection process and the abrupt dismissal of all judges acting to date. While Bolivia, where this procedure was introduced in 2011, is on the way to reversal due to the poor results, Mexico is starting this experiment, which is ostensibly celebrated by the government as a democratic gain in quality. Political influence, corruption, infiltration of organised crime, legal uncertainty for investors and the population as well as a lack of access to justice are likely to intensify in the foreseeable future as a result of this reform and the associated direct election of judges.

Parliamentary elections in Portugal

Continuity and turning point

Portugal has voted for the third time in just three years. Although the Portuguese were tired of voting, voter turnout only fell by 1.6%, probably also thanks to repeated appeals from President Rebelo de Sousa for voting. The moderate center-right alliance Aliança Democrática under the leadership of Prime Minister Luis Montenegro won the elections with a relative majority, which makes the continuation of his minority government likely. In this respect, there is continuity. However, the collapse of the Socialist Party PS and the strong rise of the right-wing populist party Chega must be seen as a turning point. Chega even moved into second place. Nevertheless, Portugal will remain a stable political EU partner.

Morocco’s Defense Modernization: Strategic Investments in Security

Check out now our second report from Morocco Radar!