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After the elections is before the elections

France is in crisis after the European elections

The European elections set an important course for the European Union in the coming years. At stake are the framework conditions for democracy, prosperity and security against the backdrop of a changing geopolitical world, but in France the national perspective dominated, and this election was framed as a mid-term election for the Macron government. The European elections in France ended with a bang. The overwhelming victory of the Rassemblement National and the fact that the ruling Renaissance party received only half as many votes as the right-wing populists led President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of the election and announce new elections to be held on 30 June and 7 July.

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
June 11, 2024
Country Reports
Adobe Stock / Panama

Poland as a strong security guarantor on NATO’s eastern flank

What can a successful modernization of the Polish armed forces mean for Europe and Germany?

Core elements of Polish security and defense policy are a strong perception of the threat posed by Russia, strong ties to NATO and intensive bilateral relations with the USA. A hallmark of Polish defense policy is a strengthening of security resilience, which is being consistently pursued despite the change of government. The radical modernization of the armed forces is being achieved through increased funding (3.9 percent of GDP), a new concept of general defense, a planned increase in troops and new purchases of mostly US equipment. The Republic of Poland will not become a security guarantor for Eastern Europe in the medium term without foreign arms imports. This requires European and American support, coordination and scaling. If this succeeds, the eastern flank would be more secure than ever in history.

David Gregosz, Dr. Daniel Lemmen, Benjamin Urban
June 10, 2024
Country Reports
U.S. Mission / Eric Bridiers / flickr / CC BY-ND 2.0

Geneva Telegram on the 77th World Health Assembly

The "Geneva Telegram" deals with events in Geneva's multilateral organizations, this time the 77th World Health Assembly (WHA), which met in Geneva from May 27 to June 1, 2024.

The 77th session of the World Health Assembly (WHA) marked significant progress in the global health agenda. A milestone was the adoption of the 14th General Programme of Work (GPW14) 2025-2028, which defines the future priorities and strategies of the World Health Organization (WHO). Another key topic was the launch of the investment round, which is expected to culminate in November at the G20 summit in Brasília, to make WHO's financing more predictable, flexible, and resilient.

Dr. Anja Maria Rittner
June 10, 2024
Country Reports
Generiert mit Adobes Firefly KI in Photoshop

Political system in Belarus

One nation – two new representative bodies?

In spring 2024, Belarusians had the “pleasure” of renewing two political bodies, both of which claim to represent the people, albeit in diametrically opposed ways: The All-Belarusian People's Assembly, appointed by Lukashenka, is intended to be the new super-authority to ensure his personal rule and the continuation of the authoritarian system, while at the same time fulfilling a demand by Vladimir Putin for internal reforms in Belarus. Staffed by 1,200 loyalists, it is also an artificial image of an “ideal society” in the eyes of the ruler, which excludes political opponents, i.e. most of the electorate, from participation. The democratic forces in exile, on the other hand, held what was probably the first Belarusian democratic election since 1994 with the elections to the Coordination Council. Technically successful, they hardly managed to arouse greater interest among the population, as the mandate, function, and potential for action of the “proto parliament” remains unclear. This report analyses how both work, how they came about and how they fit into the current political situation in and around Belarus.

Jakob Wöllenstein
June 4, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / aal.photo

Mexico has voted

Clear balance of power

On June 2, the long-awaited presidential and parliamentary elections took place in Mexico, and thousands of political offices were also re-elected at state and municipal level. The preliminary results leave nothing to be desired in terms of clarity: Claudia Sheinbaum (MORENA), the candidate of the ruling coalition, will be the next and first female president of Mexico. According to projections, she is well ahead of the opposition candidate Xóchitl Galvez with 58% of the vote, who only achieved around 28%, while Jorge Máynez received around 10%. The government camp will also have clear majorities in both chambers of Congress. The opposition has to cope with a clear defeat: none of the intended changes of government in the gubernatorial elections in nine federal states were achieved. The comprehensively positive result for the government at this level, with a slightly reduced voter turnout, was not so clearly predicted by any opinion poll.

Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Maximilian Strobel
June 4, 2024
Country Reports
2024 Halla Tómasdóttir

Iceland has a new President

With 80.8 % a very high voter turnout, 75% of the votes went to female candidates

A simple majority of 34.3% was enough to lead to the outcome on Saturday: Halla Tómasdóttir, 55 years old, a successful businesswoman with social commitment, becomes Iceland's 7th president since the country was founded in 1944. This year, Iceland celebrates 80 years since proclaiming independence from Denmark. All 12 candidates for the presidential election ran as independents, including Katrín Jakobsdóttir, until recently Prime Minister, crime writer and leader of the green-left movement, which is part of the current governing coalition. She only achieved second place with 25%, having long been the favourite for the position. She resigned from all her duties to run for president. The role of the Icelandic president is a representative one. In addition to appointing the prime minister and ministers, the president shares legislative power with parliament, as he has to sign laws and therefore has a veto. It is not the president's job to conclude agreements with foreign states. Nevertheless, he can open doors that facilitate agreements.

Gabriele Baumann, Sophia Nagengast
June 4, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / SNA

“Georgian Dream” turns into a nightmare

The Georgian government is rapidly turning away from the Euro-Atlantic course. But civil society and the opposition are not giving up.

“Foreign Agents Law”, “Offshore Law” and intensified cooperation with China - fundamental political changes are emerging in Georgia. The ruling party “Georgian Dream” has taken the West by surprise with its rapid autocratization. The overwhelmingly pro-European population has been taking to the streets on a historic scale for weeks to protest against these developments. However, the government remains unimpressed and continues the confrontation. The developments are not just about the much-cited “Foreign Agents Law”, but about larger geopolitical shifts in the region. The stakes are high for the West.

Matthias Hespe, Stephan Malerius
June 3, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / ANP

The Netherlands on the way to forming a government

Extra-parliamentary experiment in The Hague

Six months after the snap elections in the Netherlands, four parties have agreed to work together and put forward Dick Schoof, former head of the secret service AIVD and highest-ranking civil servant in the Ministry of Justice, as a candidate for the office of Prime Minister. The fact that he previously held no political office is symbolic of the desired form of cooperation in the new government – an extra-parliamentary cabinet is to be formed comprising 50 per cent representatives of the parties supporting it and 50 per cent politically independent experts. The reason for this decision is the complicated election result in November 2023 and the strong polarisation around the right-wing populist election winner Geert Wilders. The new cabinet is to be sworn in by King Willem-Alexander at the beginning of July.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Kai Gläser
May 31, 2024
Country Reports
KAS Mongolia

Mongolian parliamentary election 2024: new rules, old style of play

Enlargement of parliament from 76 to 126 seats

Mongolia is electing a new parliament for the ninth time since the democratic transition in 1990. The election date is June 28, 2024, and once again, the rules for the election have been changed in the run-up. However, the massive use of administrative resources by the ruling party, the distribution of election gifts, and the disagreements within the largest opposition party have remained. One question is whether Mongolia's years-long slide down the democracy, media freedom, and corruption rankings can be halted. It is unlikely that democracy as a whole could be at risk.

Viktor Frank
May 31, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Wassilis Aswestopoulos

Greece ahead of the European elections

Nea Demokratia favored despite crises, national issues dominate, EU issues such as defense and labor shortage in the background

The upcoming European elections in Greece on 9 June are being influenced by growing discontent and concern in the government camp. The rise of far-right parties, persistent inflation, a train accident in Tempi and a bugging scandal have put the governing party Nea Dimokratia (ND) in a defensive position. A few weeks before the European elections, a clear favourite is emerging: Nea Demokratia (ND) is expected to come first. The opposition party SYRIZA has secured second place, while PASOK, the socialist party, is in third place. The Greek European elections are centred around national issues. But the debate neglects critical EU issues such as defence, agricultural policy, an ageing population and labour shortages.

Marian Wendt, Vasilis Karydas-Yfantis
May 31, 2024
Country Reports
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