Details

Seven years on since the “Libyan Revolution” started, the economic situation in Libya is in dire conditions. Despite the absence of clear and reliable micro and macroeconomic indicators, Libya’s poor economic performance is evident, as rendered obvious by the claims that its population bring on a day-to-day basis. Despite the efforts that have been developed by Libya’s political authorities – both in the East and in the West - to try and limit the effects of the economic problems on the society, Libya keeps facing deep problems; those explain in turn why the country is still subject to so much instability.

Libya lacks the presence of a long-term vision and this will stay the case as long as we do not know who exactly is taking the decisions. Infrastructure and basic social services, such as health and education, are deficient, but reverting this situation needs time, money and foreign investors. Oil reserves are important, and exploring them accurately could help overcoming the crisis of liquidity and the budgetary problems that Libya is facing. Nevertheless, while having a regular and efficient oil production is critical, positive achievements also need Libyans to set the responsibilities of their core institutional bodies, such as the National Oil Company (NOC) and the Libyan Central Bank (LCB). Relevant questions in this regard include on what basis oil benefits have to be distributed.

Experts on Libya’s macro-, micro, and socioeconomic problems are unanimous: Libya needs to adopt reforms before the situation really slips out of hands. That said, accurate reforms also need to be based on a good assessment and a correct understanding of the situation that prevails in the country.

To contribute to a deepened understanding of the Libyan economy in the current situation, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s (KAS) Regional Program South Mediterranean in cooperation with Stactegia is organizing a roundtable dedicated to assess the state of play and identify a possible way forward in order to overcome some of the country’s socioeconomic problems and challenges. By bringing their expertise to the table and exchanging their analyses and testimonials, a group of selected experts will provide recommendations that will feed in a later published KAS Libya Brief.

Program

Wednesday, 7 March 2018

Arrival of participants

Thursday, 8 March 2018

09:00 Welcoming remarks

Dr. Canan Atilgan, Director, Regional Program South Mediterranean, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

09:10 Introduction

H.E. Dr. Mahmoud Gebril, Former Prime Minister of Libya, President of the National Forces Alliance

Moderated by Dr. Barah Mikail, Director of Stractegia

09:30 Panel 1: In oleum veritas: State of play of Libya’s oil sector

Chair: Mohammed Sreit, Journalist and Researcher

• Stop-and-go: Ruptures in Libya’s oil production

  Buagela Lamin, Libyan Oil Specialist

• The future of Libya’s oil production: Can the NOC be united?

  Tarek Ibrahim Al-Shalmani, Economist, Ras Lanouf Company for Oil and Gas

11:30 Panel 2: A divided market: One country, two economies?

Chair: Tarek Alhouny, Editor-in-Chief of Libya Cloud News Agency (LCNA)

• The Libyan cash crisis: How to deal with a national shortage of cash

  Dr. Medhat El Ghdamsi, Member of the National Economic Development Board

• Battle of the banknotes: What future for the Libyan Dinar?

  Haitham Ahmed Akgam, Director of Account Management at the Bank of Commerce and Development

• A perspective from the private banking sector in Libya

  Abeer Zoghbia, Director of the Treasury Department at Sahara Bank

14:30 Panel 3: No state, no institutions? How economies function without governance

Chair: Alamin Abolmagir, The Libyan Program for Reintegration and Development

• The role of the private sector

  Dr. Abouazom Alafi, Assistant Professor of Economy, University of Sebha

• The impact of currency variations on the Libyan commercial balance

  Dr. Yusef Yakhlef, Libyan Economist

16:30 Panel 4: Public infrastructure: Restrained potential for stability?

Chair: Rachid Khechana, Director, Mediterranean Centre for Libyan Studies (CMEL)

• Education, health, and transport – who is running basic services in Libya?

  Abdelbari Shinbaro, Deputy Minister of Local Government at the GNA

• Filling the gap: Municipalities as service providers

  Dr. Otman Gajiji, Former Chairman of the Central Committee of Municipal Elections in Libya

• The humanitarian situation and its impact on the economy

  Jamal Mabrouk Ali, Head of the International Organization for Cooperation and Emergency Aid