Publications

Country Reports

The Jordanian 2019 Income Tax Law

by Leontine von Felbert

A new Jordanian income tax law and its previous drafts sparked large protest starting in May 2018. As the new provisions within the law only directly affect around 10% of working Jordanians, they can hardly be understood to be the sole reason for the popular anger. Instead the law came in a context of steep price hikes, high poverty rates and a widespread feeling that government corruption prevents efficient use of taxpayer money. This country report looks at the new income tax law and its provisions; it highlights the challenges to the law and notes that it has brought to the open wider social discontent that is being expressed through an attitude of non-cooperation towards the government.

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Trade Liberalization in Jordan and Economic Diplomacy

by Marwan Kardoosh

A Story of Qualified Success
In this article Marwan A. Kardoosh describes the history of trade liberalization in Jordan and how it has been affected by the interaction between economic diplomacy and political factors.

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The Effects of the 2015 Ban of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood

by Lamis El Muhtaseb

In this article, Dr. Lamis El Muhtaseb analyses the effect of the 2015 ban on the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood views its legitimacy as an indispensable part of the legitimacy of the Jordanian state itself. The movement has been spreading its message and influence for decades both inside and outside of the state. Banning the movement in 2015 has motivated the Jordanian Brotherhood to hold on to its religious message while simultaneously making political concessions to the Jordanian state.

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Where is Jordan's economy heading? - Obstacles and Opportunities

by Daniel Heuermann

An Economic Policy Analysis for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
In this report Prof. Heuermann analyses the Jordanian economy including the barriers to inclusive economic growth as well as the significant potential of the economy.

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The Deal of the Century and Jordan's Dilemma

by Suha Maayeh

In this article Suha Maayeh explains Jordan's dilemma when it comes to the "Deal of the Century". Trump’s "Deal of the Century" is supposed to end the decade long Israeli-Palestinian conflict by suggesting the final borders of Israel, Israeli-Palestinian political relations, the status of Jerusalem and the future of 5.4 million Palestinian refugees. Although the content of the deal has not yet been revealed, Palestinians fear that it would end their hope for an independent Palestinian state in the 1967 borders in the framework of a two-state-solution. While Saudi-Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seem to be supporting the deal, Jordan – a major US ally in the Middle East and the state with the longest Arab-Israeli border – feels it has been left out of consultations by the American side and it has voiced its disapproval of any deal that would not realize the two-state solution. With a Palestinian-majority population, Jordan, which is, however, a major recipient of US aid, will face a serious dilemma if the "Deal of the Century" will follow along the above mentioned lines.

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Secular and Islamist Political Elites: The Role of Inter-Elite Trust and its Impact on Political Transformation in Tunisia and Egypt after the Arab Spring

by Annette Ranko

This article analyses why the political transformations following the Arab Spring took different paths in Egypt and Tunisia. Based on data from field interviews conducted between 2012 and 2018 as well as press analyses, we argue that a strong factor why Tunisia was more successful in establishing democracy is that it had a higher level of inter-elite trust. Moreover, we show that the establishment of inter-elite trust depends on the presence of functioning trust-building arenas during the transition and the early democratic consolidation period. To investigate the role of inter-elite trust, we develop a theoretical-analytical framework, drawing on Arab Spring literature, transition theory, scholarship on democratic consolidation, and research on trust.

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The Impact of the Syria Crisis on Jordan's Terrorist Threat

by Amer Al Sabaileh

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh analyses the internal and external terrorist threats to Jordan that result from the Syria Crisis.

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Organizational Split and Radicalization within Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

by Annette Ranko, Mohammad Yaghi, PhD

Internal structural changes and ideological rifts have given rise to new strategies for legitimizing violence.

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Survey: The Syrian Conflict, Migration and the Refugee Crisis in Jordan

A survey was conducted in November 2018, covering a sample comprising of 1,305 Jordanians and 600 Syrian refugees in Jordan. They answered questions about their opinions regarding the Syrian conflict, the refugee crisis, migration and the Jordan-Syria border.

Country Reports

EU-Jordan Trade Agreement

by Shereen Abbadi

Overview and Implementation Status
In February 2016, as the Syria refugee crisis started to peak, the international community held a conference in London to discuss a joint response to the crisis: It heralded a decisive paradigm shift in European development cooperation, away from short-term emergency aid to long-term strengthening of initial host country resilience. A core outcome of the conference was the Jordan Compact — an agreement between Jordan, the European Union, and the World Bank. This study aims to give an overview on Jordan’s economy and to reflect on the progress of the Compact implementation two years on.