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Credit IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

A Test for Bolivia’s Government

Less than six months after President Paz took office, a wave of protests is threatening the stability of the country.

Severe supply shortages and road blockades are shaping the image of Bolivia’s capital, reviving memories of past crises in the country. The escalation is fueled by an explosive mix of political legacies, social conflicts, and growing dissatisfaction among influential groups. The government of President Rodrigo Paz is under acute pressure to act, yet from the very beginning of its term it has been confronted with a dual structural problem: the heavy legacy of the socialist era and an extremely fragile power base of its own.

Dr. Christina Stolte
May 28, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Is an entry of Belarus into the war against Ukraine looming?

For weeks, Ukrainian President Zelensky has been warning that Russia is attempting to openly draw Belarus into the war.

Ukrainian intelligence services have reportedly registered the construction of roads leading toward the Ukrainian border as well as the preparation of artillery positions in Belarus. According to the Ukrainian side, Russia is considering offensive scenarios launched from Belarus toward Chernihiv and Kyiv. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the Russian General Staff is examining offensive operations from the north in order to stretch the front line. However, according to the prevailing assessment of independent Belarusian analysts, no troop movements have so far been observed that would clearly substantiate these scenarios. A direct Belarusian entry into the war remains rather unlikely. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense given the country’s close military alignment with Russia and its high degree of militarization. Most recently, Russia and Belarus conducted joint exercises with a nuclear dimension, thereby creating a clear posture of intimidation. On 25 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leading representative of the democratic Belarusian opposition, arrived in Kyiv — an important political signal from Ukraine that Ukrainian Belarusian relations are to be oriented more strongly toward the democratic opposition and distanced from dictator Lukashenka.

Gabriele Baumann
May 27, 2026
Country reports
KAS

Malaysia's Special Economic Zones

Growth Engine and Balancing Tool

Malaysia's Special Economic Zones reflect a dual-track economic strategy: rapid integration into high-value regional supply chains and long-term domestic rebalancing. The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ), launched in 2025, demonstrates strong early momentum, attracting RM68 billion (USD17 billion) in approved investments within nine months and leveraging cross-border complementarities with Singapore. In contrast, the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) SEZ, established in 2008-2009, targets structural disparities by promoting industrial development in less-developed states. While JS-SEZ benefits from proximity to global capital and logistics networks, ECER faces constraints linked to geography, visibility, and execution capacity. Together, these zones illustrate Malaysia's attempt to move up the value chain while addressing internal inequality. The central policy challenge lies in sustaining investor confidence through credible execution and ensuring that high-growth zones do not deepen regional imbalances. These zones serve two distinct functions. First, they attract foreign direct investment in higher-value sectors such as digital services, advanced manufacturing, and green industries. Second, they address uneven development across regions. The contrast between the Johor-Singapore SEZ and the ECER SEZ illustrates this dual objective clearly.

Natalie Russmann, Justin Tee Yong Ting
May 20, 2026
Country reports
Smarterpix / 1xpert

The European Union – the difficult path to becoming a global anchor of stability

Results of the Panorama Analysis 2026

The Panorama Analysis 2026 provides a comprehensive insight into the current development of the European Union and its environment in a year-on-year comparison. The analysis presents a multithematic assessment of the current situation in the areas of innovation and competitiveness, the attitudes of member states towards the EU, and the global environment. By using qualitative and quantitative indicators, it provides sound insights into current trends and developments.

Johanna Hohaus, Tim Peter
May 18, 2026
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / dts Nachrichtenagentur

Evika Siliņa resigns: Latvia's primary phase begins with government crisis

Vienotiba: between a coalition breakdown, an election campaign and a general election

Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (Jaunā Vienotība / EPP) announced her resignation on 14 May. The occasion was the forced resignation of Defense Minister Andris Sprūds (Progresīvie) on May 10 after drone incidents in Latgale — which were subsequently identified as Ukrainian missiles diverted by Russian electronic warfare. This ends the three-party coalition of JV, ZZS and Progresīvie, which has been in office since September 2023 — just under five months before the parliamentary elections on October 3. On the same morning, Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze (ZZS) was arrested by the anti-corruption office KNAB as part of the "wood industry affair". Siliņa continues to conduct official business in an acting capacity; On 15 May, President Edgars Rinkēvičs will start consultations with all Saeima parliamentary groups. There are three scenarios for the transition phase.

Oliver Morwinsky
May 15, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

Strategic Bet: How Germany Is Rediscovering Turkey

From Bilateral Rapprochement to a Shared Security Architecture

On 18 May 2026, the Strategic Dialogue Mechanism between Germany and Turkey is scheduled to be resumed. Since Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s inaugural visit to Ankara in late October 2025, German–Turkish relations have taken on renewed momentum. Both countries currently see tangible opportunities to achieve concrete progress in their bilateral cooperation. From a German perspective, Turkey has increasingly come into focus as a strategic security partner. The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara in July 2026 offers a valuable opportunity to further strengthen cooperation in the field of defence. Additional substantive impulses may also emerge from the forthcoming 18th Istanbul Security Conference®.

Dr. Markus Hildebrand
May 13, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Wolfgang Maria Weber

Reactions and Background to the Trump Administration’s Decision to Reduce Troops in Germany

Gradual Withdrawal or New Strategy?

The United States’ decision to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany over the next year reflects not only President Donald Trump’s displeasure with America’s European allies, but also the continuation of a policy by the Trump Administration to hold American allies responsible for their own security. This move was substantially criticized by members of both houses of Congress, including many of Trump’s Republican allies, for being short sighted, lack of transparency (especially considering the lack of a released Global Posture Review) and demonstrating weakness. This may also be driven by an attempt to shore up Trump’s political base ahead of the 2026 midterm elections after the president’s approval rating sharply fell after the attack on Iran.

Dr. Hardy Ostry
May 7, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

Presidential Election in Benin in the Context of Democratic Backsliding in West Africa

Government Candidate and Former Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni Wins the Election

On 12 April 2026, the citizens of Benin elected a new president. Romuald Wadagni, the former Minister of Finance and candidate of the governing coalition, emerged as the clear winner with 94.05 per cent of the vote. His sole opponent, Paul Hounkpè, chairman of the opposition party Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Émergent, lagged far behind with just under six per cent. Given the exclusion of the main opposition party Les Démocrates, the outcome of the election was largely predictable prior to the vote. Against this backdrop, observation focused less on the electoral result itself and more on voter turnout.

Louisa Mendoza, O. Kevin Anvo
April 30, 2026
Country reports
Smarterpix / Kirill_m

Yerevan in Europe’s Spotlight

One month before Armenia’s parliamentary elections, Europe’s heads of state and government convene in Yerevan for the European Political Community summit, followed by the first EU–Armenia Summit.

At a time of significant geopolitical tensions and just weeks before a landmark parliamentary election, Europe's eyes will turn to Armenia in early May 2026. Within a few days, Yerevan will be the venue for several high-level international formats – the meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), the first ever EU-Armenia summit and the high-level conference "Yerevan Dialogue". The concentrated presence of European heads of government, decision-makers, diplomats and international experts is more than a protocol event. It is an expression of a strategic repositioning of Armenia – and underlines Europe's role in the South Caucasus.

Jakob Wöllenstein
April 28, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Italy Photo Press

Giorgia Meloni’s reform agenda in the Political Laboratory of Italy

Judicial reform, electoral law, premiership

The failed judicial reform referendum marked Giorgia Meloni’s first major political setback. Having narrowly avoided a more serious government crisis, the question arises as to what remains of her far reaching institutional reform agenda. In the meantime, concerns are growing that the next parliamentary election could result in a stalemate between the centre right coalition and a potentially unified Campo Largo – a scenario of political stagnation that may be averted through a reform of the electoral system. This country report examines Meloni’s reform agenda in the light of three decades of structurally driven political instability and the earlier reform projects of Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Renzi.

Adrian Przybytek, Paruvana Fiona Volkmann
April 28, 2026
Country reports

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