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KAS Genf

Ministerialerklärung in der Verlängerung

Ergebnisse und Einschätzungen der 13. Ministerkonferenz der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO)

Die "Genfer Depesche" geht auf Vorgänge in den Genfer multilateralen Organisationen zu einem aktuellen Thema ein. Dieses Mal steht die 13. Ministerkonferenz der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) im Fokus, die vom 26. Februar bis zum 01. März in Abu Dhabi, in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, stattfand.

Cedric Amon
March 6, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / USA TODAY Network

Biden and Trump: Unpopular and Unavoidable

The Trend of the U.S. Primaries Continues on “Super Tuesday”

The “Super Tuesday” of the U.S. primary elections is over: Party members and supporters in 16 states and one territory decided on their parties’ candidates for the presidential election. President Joe Biden and Donald Trump still have a good chance of becoming their parties’ candidates. But both have to deal with criticism from within the party - and poor poll ratings.

Jan Bösche
March 6, 2024
Country Reports
bluedesign stock.adobe.com

The (in)visibility of (forced) prostitution in the criminal justice system

Is a Prohibition to buy sex a solution?

A penalised ban on buying sex is the subject of controversial debate. In principle, it is not the task of (criminal) law to enforce moral standards of behaviour or to protect people from the consequences of the life decisions they make on their own responsibility. Does this apply to prostitution? The analysis addresses whether prostitution and human trafficking can be curbed with the help of a sex purchase ban based on the "Nordic model".

Angelika Allgayer
March 5, 2024
Facts and Findings
Grispb, stock.adobe.com

Cyber Actors: North Korea

How cyber operations support the state system

In recent years, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has increasingly instrumentalized cyber and increasingly instrumentalized the cyber and information space to implement its state policy agenda and is exploiting the entire spectrum of possible operational targets: sabotage and disruption, signaling, political espionage, economic espionage, foreign currency procurement and propaganda.

Lukas Joselewitsch
March 4, 2024
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

Franco-German tensions and European pressure to act

Ukraine conference in Paris

On February 27, 2024, President Macron invited 20 heads of state and government, including 15 representatives of the EU member states as well as the UK, the USA and Canada, to a conference on Ukraine in Paris at very short notice. This took place under the impression of the extremely difficult situation on the Ukrainian front and the possible discontinuation of military aid from the USA to Ukraine. At the press conference for the meeting, Macron polarized with a statement on the possible deployment of ground troops in Ukraine, which was met with fierce criticism, particularly in Germany. He also sent several pointed remarks in the direction of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which reinforced the impression that tensions in Franco-German relations are currently immense, particularly in view of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. France itself is under pressure to act. The government has repeatedly denied the figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, according to which France is one of the worst performers in the European context in terms of military aid to Ukraine (see info panel). Macron, who attempted to maintain a dialogue with Vladimir Putin as the driving European force at the beginning of the invasion in 2022, now wants to become the geopolitical leader in Europe again. Whether he will succeed in this seems rather uncertain. The European partners immediately distanced themselves clearly from the scenario of a troop deployment in Ukraine. The French president may also have led himself up the garden path domestically. The opposition described Macron's proposal as risky and ill-considered. The right-wing populist camp in France in particular is likely to exploit the president's geopolitical move in order to use it against him in the upcoming European elections.

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
February 28, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Manfred Segerer

Escalation in the Red Sea

The military dimension, the deployment of the Bundeswehr and the calculus of regional players

The deployment of the frigate Hessen to the Red Sea was described in advance as the most dangerous deployment of the German navy in the history of the Bundeswehr and is aimed at protecting funda-mental national interests. This naval mission fundamentally challenges central assumptions and plans of Germany’s defence policy of the past two decades. A return of the Bundeswehr to East Africa was long considered just as unlikely as an air defence scenario against a non-state armed group. Now the Yemeni Houthi militia is confronting the US naval forces with a primarily Iranian arsenal of weapons that is clearly superior in quality to that of many other non-state armed groups. While in terms of de-fence policy, Europe is almost completely tied down along NATO's eastern flank, it is becoming appar-ent that the conflict-ridden region around the Red Sea could pose an additional security challenge in the long term and require additional commitment and resources. After all, the maritime trade route between the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab and access to the Indo-Pacific region are of key economic and security importance for Germany and Europe.

Philipp Dienstbier, Gregory Meyer, Nils Wörmer
February 28, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Elections as a “special operation”

With Lukashenka’s “single voting day” only a coup by the democratic forces is surprising

On February 25, 2024, the “single voting day” for the national parliament and local councils took place in Belarus. This was likely the least free election in the history of the nation. Politically sterile, with no opposition on the ballot or in the election commissions, Lukashenka is ushering in a process that the democratic opposition calls a “special operation.” Strictly guarded by a massive contingent of his repressive apparatus, the system is now to be restructured in the spring with a new super-committee in order to secure his authoritarian rule and personal power. From his point of view, the people are above all a threat following the peaceful pro-democratic mass protests of 2020. An action led by democratic forces produced a surprise on the eve of “Election Day.”

Jakob Wöllenstein
February 27, 2024
Country Reports
adobe stock / H_Ko

Health and Psychosocial Effects Evolving from Cannabis Legalisation and Commercialisation

Cannabis legalization at the expense of children and young people

Cannabis legalization leads to an increase in consumption. In addition, the risk perception of harmful effects decreases due to the easier availability of cannabis. Harmful effects include impaired concentration and memory, apathy, anxiety, depressive and schizophrenic disorders. Legalization in Germany is an experiment that is being carried out on the backs of children and young people for the benefit of robust luxury consumers.

Rainer Matthias Holm-Hadulla, Anneliese Dörr Álamos
February 23, 2024
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

The Human Rights Situation in Belarus on the Eve of the “Single Voting Day”

The repressive system in Belarus today is no less brutal than in Putin's Russia

Just days after the breaking news of Alexei Navalny's death made global headlines, Belarusian independent media reported another tragedy that is similar in character but will likely cause much less attention. The political prisoner Ihar Lednik died in a hospital in Minsk after he had been incarcerated despite a known heart condition. He had been accused of “slandering Lukashenka” in a publication that demanded the dissolution of the Union State with Russia. This underlines yet again that the repressive system in today’s Belarus is not less brutal than in Putin’s Russia. Since 2020, at least five political prisoners have died in Belarus, four of them within the last nine months. Since last spring, at least six political prisoners, among them the most prominent leaders of the 2020 democratic protest, have “disappeared”. Former inmates and relatives describe the conditions in the penal colonies as “creeping death” and the UN sees signs of “crimes against humanity”. Since the repressions aim to secure Lukashenka’s rule beyond “elections”, this report is to give an overview of the human rights situation in Belarus on the eve of the “single voting day” on February 25, 2024.

Jakob Wöllenstein
February 22, 2024
Country Reports
Collage: Stafeeva, stock.adobe.com (people); KAS

Online, offline or both?

Practical test of survey methods – which survey method delivers trustworthy, representative results?

Survey data that is supposedly representative of the population is published almost daily. However, its quality is increasingly being questioned. These doubts are also linked to an accelerating trend towards online surveys. So-called mixed-mode samples from online and telephone data are also increasingly entering the survey market. But which survey method delivers reliable results? What are the opportunities and problems of internet-based methods? What role do data weighting and accessibility play? Analyses of telephone, online and mixed-mode samples provide answers.

Dominik Hirndorf, Dr. Sabine Pokorny
February 22, 2024
Facts and Findings
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