Nr. 2 | October 2026 - Lebanon: The Challenge of Reestablishing Soverignty and Finding Lasting Peace
Dr. Makram Ouaiss
Since October 2023, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has killed 8,915 people in Lebanon and wounded 30,543. The number of internally displaced people peaked at around 1.2 million in June 2026. Many have returned since the U.S.-brokered framework agreement of 26 June, however nearly 400,000 residents of the south are still waiting for Israel to withdraw from its yellow line before they can finally go home.
In the second paper of our series following up on the conference 'Changing Regional Security in the Middle East', Ouaiss argues that another ceasefire will not be enough. In his view, lasting peace depends on the state restoring its authority over Lebanese territory and over decisions of war and peace. It also depends on an agreement between the state and Hezbollah on a Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) process. Neither can succeed if security is treated apart from the political and socio-economic grievances of the south.
Drawing on Paul Wehr's conflict-mapping approach, Ouaiss examines the actors who shape Lebanon's options. These range from the United States, Iran, the Gulf states, post-Assad Syria and Türkiye to Israel, Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. He concludes that Hezbollah's comprehensive disarmament is unlikely without Iran's acquiescence. That makes direct engagement with Tehran as necessary as negotiations with the party itself. UNIFIL's mandate is due to end in December 2026, so the paper also weighs what losing an international monitoring presence would mean for any future settlement.
