George Simion, the right-wing populist candidate and leader of the AUR (Alliance for the Unification of Romanians) party, clearly won the first round of the Romanian presidential elections on 4 May 2025 with almost 41% of the vote. In the run-off election on 18 May 2025, the incumbent mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, will run against him as a non-party candidate. Nicușor Dan received just under 21% of the vote in the first round. This meant he narrowly beat Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the governing coalition of the Social Democrats (PSD), the National Liberals (PNL) and the Hungarian Minority Representation (UDMR), by just 0.9%. Crin Antonescu recognised the election result and thus his defeat on the evening of the election. The next day, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) resigned, saying that the poor result of the governing coalition's candidate showed that the coalition no longer had the necessary support among the population.
All against the system
In Romania, the democratic opposition did not come to power after the 1989 revolution. The second and third ranks of the Ceauşescu elite took the helm and established themselves at the core of the emerging parties and state institutions. The old Securitate secret police transformed itself into several intelligence services. Romanians refer to this network, characterised by clientelism, corruption and impunity, as ‘the system’.
The desire of many citizens for far-reaching changes to the ‘system’ was hardly reflected politically for a long time. In particular, the second term of office of President Klaus Iohannis was a major disappointment in this respect. Romanians had expected real reforms from him. However, the formation of a PSD-PNL coalition under Iohannis' aegis was perceived to have worsened the situation. Many Romanians felt that the merger of the social democratic PSD and the national liberal PNL, the two classic antagonists of Romanian politics, undermined mutual political control in the game between the political parties.
Political frustration with this development escalated into sheer anger among many voters in the first presidential election at the end of 2024. Too many citizens simply no longer believed that gradual political reforms could bring about improvement. Calin Georgescu's promise of old order, national pride and retribution against the ‘traitors of the people’, delivered to smartphones in carefully curated TikTok videos, caught on. The cancellation of the presidential election in December 2024 due to influence peddling and violations of electoral law did nothing to calm this heated climate. Moreover, it was clear enough that the government or the political parties were working hard to rectify the widely criticised abuses.
In this respect, it is hardly surprising that two explicitly anti-system candidates have once again prevailed in the second presidential election on 4 May 2025. George Simion has been propagating for years that he wants to radically dismantle the ‘system’. His ideas of reconstruction are isolationist, nationalistic and strongly resemble the MAGA vision of society. Nicușor Dan has also been advocating change for years as an anti-system politician. Initially with the reform-oriented USR party, now as the non-party mayor of Bucharest. However, unlike Simion, the liberal Nicușor Dan is in favour of a pro-European, economically and reform-oriented Romania that is open to the world.
Uncertain forecasts
Shortly after the first round of voting, polls predicted 55% in favour of George Simion and 45% for Nicușor Dan. Over the course of the last few days, Simion's lead dwindled. A later poll by the opinion research institute CURS put George Simion just 4% ahead of his opponent. The poll published by AtlasIntel on the Friday before the election, which put Nicușor Dan 48.7% ahead of George Simion (47.8%) for the first time, is particularly significant. AtlasIntel also included the votes from the Romanian diaspora in this forecast. In the first round of voting, around 10% of the votes cast came from the diaspora. This is a significant influence that is not usually captured by Romanian polls.
George Simion performs above average with two groups of voters: the rural population and the Western European diaspora. Both groups have long been silent victims of the ‘system’: they have hardly benefited from the remarkable economic upturn of the last 15 years. On the contrary. Growth was concentrated in a few large cities and even deepened the regional and social inequalities in the country. While urban Romania pulled away, the rural regions remained trapped in the 1990s: Without modern hospitals, adequate healthcare and necessary infrastructure, but with inadequate educational opportunities and prospects for the future. It is particularly people from these backgrounds who work hard as seasonal labourers, in construction, in slaughterhouses or in the care sector in Western Europe. They often lack the resources to learn the language. The desire to return to Romania prevents real integration. The precarious living situation on the fringes of Western European societies often awakens the need to express a strong - perhaps even wounded - national pride and to vote in favour of a reactionary alternative to the countries of residence in Western Europe that are supposedly going astray.
In addition to these two voter groups mobilised to an above-average extent for George Simion, voter turnout will also have a decisive influence on the election result. Only 52% of eligible voters cast their ballot in the first round. Both candidates could therefore still mobilise for themselves here. However, Romanian election researchers believe that a higher voter turnout could favour Nicușor Dan: The angry Simion and Georgescu supporters are likely to have already been highly motivated to vote in the first round and are accordingly already strongly represented in the election result. For the second round of voting, voters who are afraid of a future under a President George Simion could now make their way to the ballot box. However, whether this will be enough for Nicușor Dan to win remains uncertain until Sunday evening.
Different visions of the future
However, whether George Simion or Nicușor Dan wins the second round will have a significant impact on the future of the country. A first glimpse of this future can be seen in the image that the candidates have of their respective opponent's supporters.
In his recent appearance on the Antena 3 television channel, Nicușor Dan had the following message: ‘I would like to express my respect for George Simion's supporters in the room and those who are watching us right now, and my hope that we will communicate with each other for the good of Romania in the future. The Romanian state owes many people a great deal. There is a prosperity gap between big cities, small towns and rural areas that we need to eliminate. (...). All of us, both those who have chosen to live here and those who have chosen or been forced to leave the country, are honest people who are capable of making Romania the country we have been dreaming of for a long time.’
George Simion, who no longer wants to take part in televised duels in the final days before the run-off election, wrote on his blog that Nicușor Dan's supporters seem ‘headless and unreasonable’ to him and apparently see the world ‘with blinkers on’. It scares him that he will also have to be their president after 19 May. George Simion leaves the ground of democratic pluralism when he threatens representatives of civil society, journalists and even the supporters of his rival candidate that he will take care of everyone - ‘not as a group, but individually’. In recent weeks, the AUR chairman has repeatedly emphasised that there are corresponding lists. After a noticeable moderation in the 2024 election campaign year, it is now becoming clear that George Simion is apparently still adhering to the style of a political hooligan. We will never forget how he shouted at Senator Diana Iovanovici Șoșoacă in the plenary session of parliament: ‘I'm going to sexually assault you, you pig!’ or when he approached the lectern of the energy minister speaking in parliament, grabbed him by the neck, shook him and insulted him.
Even though it is said that George Simion cannot stand Calin Georgescu, in recent weeks he has often adopted his isolationist ideas, pro-Russian explanations for the origins of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and right-wing extremist statements, including admiration for Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the fascist leader of the Romanian Legionary Movement. Only the weeks following the presidential election will show whether this is an election campaign tactic or a genuine conviction - should George Simion win.
The expectations of Romanian economic experts cast a second spotlight on the future. The Romanian National Bank already had to spend 6 billion euros in the two weeks following the first round of the presidential elections in order to keep the exchange rate of the Romanian currency at the psychologically important rate of 5 lei per euro. Nevertheless, the official exchange rate depreciated to 5.12 lei per euro. If George Simion wins the presidential election on 18 May 2025, financial experts expect the exchange rate to plummet to 5.5 lei per euro. The interest rates at which the state takes out loans will then become unsustainable. European funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which are linked to financial stability measures, would then remain blocked. Financial experts are warning of significant tax increases in this case. In addition, many Romanians will also feel the fall in their currency directly, as rents and salaries are often pegged to the euro. The chambers of commerce expect a drastic deterioration in the investment climate if George Simion wins the election. With noticeable consequences for the labour market as well. The Romanian financial analyst Cristian Tudorescu has calculated that the standard of living would fall by 10 to 15 per cent if George Simion were to win the election.
You shouldn't fool yourself: Even with a President Nicușor Dan, Romania would still face difficult economic and financial policy challenges. The budget deficit of 9.5% accumulated under the last government will remain regardless of the election outcome. However, Nicușor Dan would not scare off any potential investors, would probably find it much easier to get through to the EU Commission with his political concerns and, according to experts, the exchange rate would also remain at roughly the current level. Numerous economic experts assume that interest rates will return to the level of a few weeks ago and that at most a small tax increase would be necessary to balance the budget deficit. Nicușor Dan even promises to balance the deficit purely with greater fiscal discipline. Too many taxpayers are simply not paying their taxes at the moment.
Challenge for the European partners
On 18 May 2025, the Romanians will have to decide which direction to take in a run-off vote. However, the result is also relevant for Germany and the entire European Union: In Romania's semi-presidential system, the president is responsible for foreign, security and European policy. He is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces and signs off on the appointment of judges, public prosecutors and the leadership of the secret services. From a German and European perspective, Nicușor Dan, as a pro-European politician with a calm and even-tempered nature, would clearly be the preferred option. He would continue Romania's foreign, security and European policy course within the current parameters. In all likelihood, George Simion could be expected to bring about strong right-wing populist movements, although Romanian analysts do not anticipate any real efforts to leave the EU and NATO in his case either. Simion is also currently ‘persona non grata’ in the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. Not a favourable starting point for regional cooperation and dialogue with neighbouring countries. Especially when you consider that arms and aid deliveries to Ukraine are currently also being channelled through Romania.
Both George Simion and Nicușor Dan are perceived as opposing the old political model, the ‘system’, but they offer different paths to change. Nicușor Dan's voters believe in gradual, institutional and technocratic reforms. George Simion's supporters, on the other hand, are calling for a radical, rapid and even emotionally charged break with the existing system. In any case, 18 May 2025 will not be ‘business as usual’ in Romania. A decisive course will be set for the future of the country.
