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Corona Update: USA (10) – aktuelle Studien, Analysen und Kommentare

của Sabine Murphy, Jeanene Lairo, Elmar Sulk, Syreta Haggray, Dirk Hegen, Paul Linnarz

Für die Zeit vom 29. Mai bis 4. Juni 2020

Die Corona-Krise hat über die erheblichen gesundheitlichen Risiken und Folgen hinaus weitreichende Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft, Sicherheit, Forschung, Innen- und Außenpolitik sowie das gesell-schaftliche Leben in den Vereinigten Staaten. Namhafte US-amerikanische Think Tanks und Experten setzen sich intensiv mit den unterschiedlichen Aspekten und Herausforderungen dieser in ihrem Um-fang und ihrer Schnelligkeit beispiellosen Krise auseinander. Für einen Überblick über den aktuellen Stand der Diskussion stellt das KAS-Auslandsbüro USA mit Sitz in Washington D.C. wöchentlich eine Auswahl an Studien, Analysen und Kommentaren jeweils mit Links zu den Beiträgen zusammen.

“A new world order? The geopolitical fallout from COVID-19”

Quelle: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University (June 1, 2020)

Joe Barnes, Fellow

The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged much of the world into a health and economic crisis. But what effect will it have on geopolitics – roughly, the struggle for power and influence among the world’s great powers?  Will the pandemic be like World War II or the collapse of the Soviet Union, epochal events that profoundly altered the world’s balance of power? Joe Barnes, a former career diplomat with the U.S. state department, discusses the possible fallout in his blogpost.

***

“Global Economic Prospects”

Quelle: World Bank Group (June 2, 2020)

David Malpass, president, et al.

The World Bank released two analytical chapters of the larger “June 2020 Global Economic Prospects” report ahead of its official June 8 issuance. The two chapters that are now available are on “Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic” (Chp. 3) and “Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil in the Pandemic” (Chp. 4). With the release of the two chapters, World Bank President David Malpass emphasized that the “Developing countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis,” which is “jeopardizing decades of development progress, threatening to push over 60 million people into extreme poverty this year.”

***

“What happens in an outcome-based financing model when a major crisis hits?”

Quelle: The Brookings Institution (May 29, 2020)

Emily Gustafsson-Wright, fellow, Global Economy and Development

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are reverberating across sectors. The nature of the virus and the measures being implemented to protect the population have meant unprecedented disruptions in economic activity and dramatic shifts in the delivery of critical social services around the world. In this policy brief, the author explores the impact of the pandemic on social services that are funded through impact bonds, an innovative outcome-based financing mechanism in which investors provide up-front capital to service providers, with the potential for a return if selected outcomes are achieved. She explores the situation across geographies.

***

“Trump has escalated his confrontation with China. Here’s what that means”

Quelle: Atlantic Council (May 29, 2020)

David Wemer, Associate Director, editorial

During a news conference at the White House on May 29, U.S. President Donald J. Trump rebuked

China for its response to the coronavirus pandemic and alleged violation of Hong Kong’s sovereignty. The U.S. president argued that China’s behavior has endangered U.S. economic interests and national security. China's response to the coronavirus outbreak adds to the already difficult relations between both superpowers, argue several experts of the Atlantic Council. In this analysis, David Wemer puts their voices on the record.

***

Anthony Fauci on COVID-19 reopenings, vaccines, and moving at ‘warp speed’

Quelle: STAT (June 1, 2020)

Helen Branswell, Senior Writer (interviewer)

Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), discusses in this interview among other topics the chances for a vaccine and the risks for U.S. states and their people if they open too quickly.

***

“Coronavirus Pandemic Highlights Need to Spur Antibiotic Innovation”

Quelle: Pew Charitable Trust (May 29, 2020)

Kathy Talkington, Project Director, Antibiotic Resistance Project

In this article, Talkington discusses recent news stories, which explore COVID-19’s impact on the availability of effective antibiotics, now and in the future. She emphasizes that “the coronavirus pandemic continues to make clear the need for effective antibiotics and continued efforts to thwart antibiotic resistance.” One key concern when it comes to the “urgently needed” development of new antibiotics was that the cost to bring them to market was often too high to yield a return on investment.

***

“Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty”

Quelle: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER, released May 31, 2020)

Michael Barnett, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, et al.

This research paper analyses the costs and benefits of actions taken to mitigate the spread of the pandemic and points out that these decisions were taken on the basis of “significant uncertainty about key parameters relating to the costs of the new virus, including death rates, infection rates and the economic costs of policies such as shuttering businesses and issuing shelter-in-place orders.” The research concludes that “optimal policy under parameter uncertainty generates an asymmetric optimal mitigation response across different scenarios,” and that uncertainty can play a large role in determining the optimal policy response to a new disease.

***

“Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections”

Quelle: Congressional Budget Office (CBO, June 1, 2020)

This report by the Congressional Budget Office projects that due to the pandemic the U.S. gross domestic product will contract by about $16 trillion over the next decade. CBO further states that “the two largest differences between the two forecasts (January and May) result from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing output and the legislation enacted between January and early May in response, which partly offsets that reduction.”

***

„How Internet Platforms Are Combating Disinformation and Misinformation in the Age of COVID-19“

Quelle: New America (last update June 1, 2020)

Spandana Singh, Policy Analyst, Open Technology Institute; Koustubh Bagchi, Senior Policy Counsel, Open Technology Institute

Online disinformation regarding COVID-19 has caused many internet platforms to further develop policies to combat misinformation for the sake of public safety and security. New America's updated report offers a comprehensive overview of the platforms affected and offers recommendations to both the platform providers as well as policy makers on how to improve their efficacy, encourage transparency and show accountability.

***

“Structural changes: How the pandemic could influence architecture”

Quelle: University of California Los Angeles
(UCLA, May 29, 2020)

Avishay Artsy, News Producer KCRW

For this article, the author interviews faculty of the UCLA School of Arts and Architecture about the influence of the coronavirus pandemic on architecture and design of residential and commercial buildings. Amid questions about density, air flow and hygiene, people’s concerns about health and possible infection may change the way buildings and mechanical systems are designed in the future.

***

Weitere Kurzbeiträge:

“Post-pandemic federal debt may threaten health programs”

Quelle: American Enterprise Institute (AEI, June 1, 2020)

Author: James C. Capretta, Resident Fellow

The author in the article emphasized that “The government’s fiscal outlook was deteriorating even before the pandemic struck” and outlines the cost for the four bills Congress passed so far to address the COVID-19 pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the total extra expenses at $2.5 trillion and expects federal debt to reach 108 percent of GDP by the end of next year. Besides cutting federal health care benefits, the author urges policy makers to look beyond the obvious spending cuts.

***

“Temporary Fiscal Deficits To Avoid Permanent Economic and Social Damage From the Coronavirus”

Quelle: Center for American Progress (CAP, May 29, 2020)

Andres Vinelli, VP for Economic Policy;

Christian E. Weller, Senior Fellow

In this analysis for the Center of American Progress, the authors argue that a “temporary increase” in federal government spending for targeted assistance is necessary “to avoid harm to the economy in the longer term”. Between February and April 2020, more than 25 million Americans lost their jobs and thousands of small businesses closed their doors permanently. The authors suggest that the federal government needs to invest now and accept a rise in the federal deficit, to lead to a quicker economic and social recovery later.

***

„38 Million Have Applied for Unemployment—but How Many Have Received Benefits?“

Quelle: RAND Corp. (June 1, 2020)

Kathryn A. Edwards, Associate Economist;
Jeffrey B. Wenger, Senior Policy Researcher

According to Edwards' and Wenger's commentary, Unemployment Insurance may need substantial reform to its application process, but it has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic unemployment disaster. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the new program intended for workers who are not part of the employer tax base, has not, the authors state.

***

“COVID-19's 'politics of humiliation': A chance for the US to lead — or to lose control”

Quelle: The Hill (June 1, 2020)

Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

“We often think of politics in binary terms: right versus left, rural versus urban, north versus south. However people come to identify themselves, their political identities are products of circumstance and belief, with some sort of calculation at their core.” Jon Alterman discusses COVID-19’s ‘politics of humiliation’ at home and abroad, and the United States’ opportunity to meet the challenge of global leadership.

***

“Tracking COVID-19 Contracts: A GIJN Guide and Webinar”

Quelle: Global Investigative Journalism Network (GIJN, June 1, 2020)

The staffers of the Global Investigative Journalism Network put together a guide and webinar for journalists worldwide investigating government spending in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Journalists can use this resource to investigate government contracts and follow the money being spent on COVID-19.

***

Für die aktuellen Zahlen zur Corona-Krise in den USA:

The Centers for Disease Control:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html


The Johns Hopkins University:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

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Paul Linnarz

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Leiter des Auslandsbüros in Washington, D.C.

Paul.Linnarz@kas.de + 1 202 464 5840
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