Costa Rica is considered one of the most developed democracies in Latin America with strong institutions. However, recent surveys, for example by Reporters Without Borders or the Latinobarómetro, show regression. The country is facing a landmark election that could decide the future of its democracy, which has been stable for almost eight decades. The president, two vice-presidents and 57 deputies will be elected. About 73 percent of the approximately five million Costa Ricans are eligible to vote. Neither incumbent Rodrigo Chaves nor the current parliamentarians are allowed to run again according to the constitution. If no candidate achieves at least 40 percent of the votes, a run-off election between the two first-place finishers will follow on April 5, 2026.
Costa Rica faces several challenges for which voters are demanding concrete solutions from parties and candidates. In addition to the economy, education, health and social inclusion, this applies above all to the security situation. The increasing violence, also in connection with drug trafficking, is considered the main concern of the population.
Over the past decades, the number of parties running in the elections has increased drastically: in 2022, there were 25 presidential candidates. The increasing fragmentation of the parties makes it almost impossible to achieve the necessary majority in the first round. The last three presidents were only able to win their office after a second round of voting. In the meantime, 70 to 80 percent of citizens no longer identify with any party. Many voters make their decision based on an emotional attachment to a leader rather than on a party program. In addition, specific issues that mobilize voters can be decisive in the short term.
Never has an electoral process in Costa Rica been subject to such a polarized climate, characterized by institutional tensions and a president challenging the constitutional status quo. Critics fear that if his movement were defeated, Chaves would not be able to unconditionally recognize the election results – a taboo break in a country that has stood for democratic stability for decades.
The past elections have already brought several surprises and forecasts have often proven to be unreliable. The outcome therefore remains open until the end. In the long term, Costa Rica's future depends mostly on combining political stability with the ability to reform. The decisive factor will be whether the parties of the centre succeed in mobilising voters and convincing them with credible solutions to the most pressing problems.
The full lenght report is only available in German.
