Mexico 2026: Uncertainty in North American Free Trade—New Opportunities with Europe?

After nearly two years in office, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum continues to enjoy high approval ratings, while her ruling party, MORENA, dominates the country’s political landscape. The opposition appears lackluster and disorganized. The overhaul of state institutions begun under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, López Obrador (AMLO), is moving forward. The much-criticized judicial reform, along with weakened institutional checks and balances, raises significant doubts about the development of the rule of law and the separation of powers in Mexico. Organized crime also remains a major challenge, despite initial improvements in security. At the same time, uncertainty about Mexico’s economic future is growing after the United States—the country’s most important trading partner—refused to grant a long-term extension of the T-MEC in July 2026. This, in turn, opens up opportunities to expand economic and political relations as part of the diversification of international economic ties and the Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) between Mexico and the EU.