Publications on the topic of “Freedom needs Security”

Mexico after the blow against "El Mencho": Security situation, World Cup risks and trade prospects

In February 2026, Mexican armed forces succeed in arresting and eliminating Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), the leader of the country's most powerful cartel. This is immediately followed by coordinated acts of retaliation and demonstrations of power: roadblocks, arson attacks and armed clashes between security forces and cartel members, claiming around 60 lives. Mexico's precarious security situation is thus temporarily back in the international spotlight. The government is striving to restore stability quickly, not least with a view to the upcoming 2026 World Cup. A sustained escalation would further fuel the debate that has already arisen about possible venue changes. At the same time, the operation strengthens the Mexican government's position vis-à-vis the United States. The elimination of a globally wanted cartel leader is intended to demonstrate Mexico's ability to act in terms of security policy and to refute arguments for US intervention. With a view to the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC), this is of considerable importance, as the T-MEC remains Mexico's economic lifeline. The outlook for German and European companies in Mexico in 2026 is generally positive, mainly due to the planned modernisation of the EU-Mexico Global Agreement. Although the violence is increasing uncertainty in the short term, a renewed nationwide escalation is considered unlikely. If the operation strengthens Mexico's position in the T-MEC negotiations, this would be advantageous for German and European companies based in Mexico.

Czechia's defense and Ukraine policy under the new Babiš government – a first impression

From expansion to stagnation

The security policy environment in which the Czech Republic has found itself since Russia's war against Ukraine has led to a change in defense planning in recent years. Under Petr Fiala's (ODS) government, Czechia was prepared to gradually increase defense spending and left no doubt about its support for Ukraine. However, the new coalition government of Andrej Babiš, formed by the populist ANO party, the right-wing extremist anti-system SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) party, and the populist-conservative Motorists' Party, is charting a new course in many areas.

Munich as a Stage for Beijing?

China ahead of the Munich Security Conference 2026

At the leading security forum in Munich, Beijing is able to capitalize on the diplomatic self-weakening of the United States, using the opportunities to advance new partnership and its own agenda; yet despite these advantages, China remains unable to position itself as a genuine alternative for the European Union.

New Yemen, New Gulf

The war in Yemen and the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi

In the wake of the dramatic events in the Yemeni civil war at the turn of the year, the cards have been reshuffled between the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The military offensive by Emirati-backed separatists and the counterattack by the Yemeni government allied with Saudi Arabia are more than just another chapter in the war – they have caused tensions between the two Gulf monarchies to boil over. Not only has the long-simmering animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fully come to surface, but the conflict also makes another round of confrontations in the Gulf more likely. Moreover, it raises fundamental questions about stability in the Middle East, for which the Gulf states were in fact considered guarantors. In the Gulf, a new phase of politics could be dawning, with two opposing poles of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursuing conflicting regional visions with the help of different coalition partners. Likewise, the breakdown of the former Saudi-UAE alliance is not without consequences for Europe's foreign policy in the Middle East, which so far relied on both protagonists as anchors of stability.

Mexico Outlook 2026

Mexico under stress: threat of US intervention, erosion of democracy and fragile security

ince the US military intervention in Venezuela, possible US operations in Mexico are no longer considered mere threats. Announcements from Washington are now also perceived in Mexico as a real political risk scenario, presenting President Sheinbaum with a foreign and domestic policy test. At the same time, the country is undergoing a period of profound institutional upheaval. Following the far-reaching weakening of constitutional structures in 2025, the announced electoral reform could also bring the legislature under the de facto control of the ruling party in 2026. If this plan is implemented, it would further substantially damage the already fragile democratic balance. At the same time, the security situation presents a mixed picture. While the number of registered homicides is declining, the number of disappearances continues to rise. At the same time, the population's sense of insecurity remains high.

Ukraine Air War Monitor Vol XIII

Analyses for the Protection of Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure

The monthly newsletter “Monitor Air War Ukraine” provides in-depth analyses of current waves of attacks and long-term developments in Russia’s air war against Ukraine. It is based on a comprehensive database that has been documenting every recorded airstrike on civilian targets since autumn 2022. The aim is to formulate data-driven recommendations for short- and medium-term support for Ukraine. The content is intended for political decision-makers, experts in security and military affairs, as well as specialized journalists. The Monitor is published by the Kyiv Dialogue in cooperation with OSINT and data analyst Marcus Welsch and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

U.S. Perspectives One Year Into Trump’s Second Term

“Move Fast and Break Things”

Showing strength, challenging traditions, and putting America’s interests—along with his own—first: the first year of President Trump’s second term has been a whirlwind of national and international change. Nowhere is this more evident than in foreign policy, where he has profoundly reshaped the role of the United States and challenged the existing order.

Israel's scars after October 7: The return of the hostages and the national trauma

How the Hamas attack exposes social fault lines and calls old principles into question

On January 26, 2026, the remains of Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage in the hands of Palestinian terrorists, returned to Israel. The police officer, who belonged to an elite unit, had been fighting Hamas on October 7, 2023, when he was killed by terrorists and abducted to the Gaza Strip.  With the return of his body, there are no Israeli hostages in the hands of Hamas for the first time since 2014. Now his family and the entire community can say goodbye. Ran Gvili symbolizes the two traumas Israel has suffered since October 7, 2023. The first trauma, the attack on October 7 that left over 1,200 dead, was followed by the second, the taking of 251 hostages, some of whom were held captive by Hamas for two years.  It is clear that October 7 was not the beginning, but rather a dramatic escalation of an already familiar pattern.

EU-Jordan Summit

A Symbolic Step for a Strategic Partnership

With the first bilateral summit between the EU and Jordan, both sides sent a signal of their intention to deepen the partnership at a time of heightened regional instability in the Middle East. Through its support for Jordan, the EU aims to strengthen the country in its stabilising role in the region and to contribute to Jordan’s internal stability, particularly by supporting economic resilience and growth. For the EU, the deepening of relations also provides an opportunity to position itself as a reliable partner and actor in the Middle East against the backdrop of an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy.

Ukraine Air War Monitor Vol XII

Analyses for the Protection of Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure

The monthly newsletter “Monitor Air War Ukraine” provides in-depth analyses of current waves of attacks and long-term developments in Russia’s air war against Ukraine. It is based on a comprehensive database that has been documenting every recorded airstrike on civilian targets since autumn 2022. The aim is to formulate data-driven recommendations for short- and medium-term support for Ukraine. The content is intended for political decision-makers, experts in security and military affairs, as well as specialized journalists. The Monitor is published by the Kyiv Dialogue in cooperation with OSINT and data analyst Marcus Welsch and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.