Publications on the topic of “Freedom needs Security”

Multipolarity and the Rise of a Geopolitical Europe: ASEAN’s Strategic Choices and Thailand’s Path Forward

The proceedings on key insights, debates, and challenges

The content is based on the discussion on 12 December 2025, “Multipolarity and the Rise of a Geopolitical Europe: ASEAN’s Strategic Choices and Thailand’s Path Forward." The seminar examined the implications for ASEAN and Thailand, particularly in balancing strategic autonomy with deeper cooperation across trade, digital governance, green transition, and regulatory alignment. The paper also provides an executive summary in both Thai and English and synthesizes policy recommendations to guide Thailand’s future engagement with the EU. The discussion was organized by the Institute of Democratization Studies, with support from KAS Thailand.

Money Laundering in Intermediate Economies: New Study on Côte d’Ivoire

A comprehensive analysis of mechanisms, risks, and policy responses to money laundering in Côte d’Ivoire

Money laundering in Côte d’Ivoire: SIPODI’s study highlights key risks, sectoral vulnerabilities, and policy responses to enhance governance and security.

More AI for Defence and Resilience

New Ideas for an Agile and Future-proof German Military

Technological advances, a new global situation with an acute threat to NATO's eastern flank, hybrid and cognitive attacks on Germany and its allies, and changing communication conditions are challenging the Bundeswehr. However, artificial intelligence is not only a driver of these developments, but also a response to them. This requires an AI strategy that specifically addresses key issues and actively uses the possibilities offered by AI in accordance with ethical guidelines in order to adapt the Bundeswehr's capabilities to enable effective deterrence.

Spillover into the South Caucasus?

What further escalation in the Iran war could mean for Armenia and Azerbaijan

The US-Israeli attack on Iran also exacerbates (geo-)political risks for the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has been particularly exposed to drone attacks, and Armenia could face consequences like an influx of refugees, economic uncertainties, and threats to energy infrastructure. Europe must be ready to act, as an escalation would intensify rivalries, threaten partners, and directly affect our energy and security interests.

Ukraine Air War Monitor Vol XIV

Analyses for the Protection of Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure

The monthly newsletter “Monitor Air War Ukraine” provides in-depth analyses of current waves of attacks and long-term developments in Russia’s air war against Ukraine. It is based on a comprehensive database that has been documenting every recorded airstrike on civilian targets since autumn 2022. The aim is to formulate data-driven recommendations for short- and medium-term support for Ukraine. The content is intended for political decision-makers, experts in security and military affairs, as well as specialized journalists. The Monitor is published by the Kyiv Dialogue in cooperation with OSINT and data analyst Marcus Welsch and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Mexico after the blow against "El Mencho": Security situation, World Cup risks and trade prospects

In February 2026, Mexican armed forces succeed in arresting and eliminating Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), the leader of the country's most powerful cartel. This is immediately followed by coordinated acts of retaliation and demonstrations of power: roadblocks, arson attacks and armed clashes between security forces and cartel members, claiming around 60 lives. Mexico's precarious security situation is thus temporarily back in the international spotlight. The government is striving to restore stability quickly, not least with a view to the upcoming 2026 World Cup. A sustained escalation would further fuel the debate that has already arisen about possible venue changes. At the same time, the operation strengthens the Mexican government's position vis-à-vis the United States. The elimination of a globally wanted cartel leader is intended to demonstrate Mexico's ability to act in terms of security policy and to refute arguments for US intervention. With a view to the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC), this is of considerable importance, as the T-MEC remains Mexico's economic lifeline. The outlook for German and European companies in Mexico in 2026 is generally positive, mainly due to the planned modernisation of the EU-Mexico Global Agreement. Although the violence is increasing uncertainty in the short term, a renewed nationwide escalation is considered unlikely. If the operation strengthens Mexico's position in the T-MEC negotiations, this would be advantageous for German and European companies based in Mexico.

Czechia's defense and Ukraine policy under the new Babiš government – a first impression

From expansion to stagnation

The security policy environment in which the Czech Republic has found itself since Russia's war against Ukraine has led to a change in defense planning in recent years. Under Petr Fiala's (ODS) government, Czechia was prepared to gradually increase defense spending and left no doubt about its support for Ukraine. However, the new coalition government of Andrej Babiš, formed by the populist ANO party, the right-wing extremist anti-system SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) party, and the populist-conservative Motorists' Party, is charting a new course in many areas.

Munich as a Stage for Beijing?

China ahead of the Munich Security Conference 2026

At the leading security forum in Munich, Beijing is able to capitalize on the diplomatic self-weakening of the United States, using the opportunities to advance new partnership and its own agenda; yet despite these advantages, China remains unable to position itself as a genuine alternative for the European Union.

New Yemen, New Gulf

The war in Yemen and the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi

In the wake of the dramatic events in the Yemeni civil war at the turn of the year, the cards have been reshuffled between the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The military offensive by Emirati-backed separatists and the counterattack by the Yemeni government allied with Saudi Arabia are more than just another chapter in the war – they have caused tensions between the two Gulf monarchies to boil over. Not only has the long-simmering animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fully come to surface, but the conflict also makes another round of confrontations in the Gulf more likely. Moreover, it raises fundamental questions about stability in the Middle East, for which the Gulf states were in fact considered guarantors. In the Gulf, a new phase of politics could be dawning, with two opposing poles of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursuing conflicting regional visions with the help of different coalition partners. Likewise, the breakdown of the former Saudi-UAE alliance is not without consequences for Europe's foreign policy in the Middle East, which so far relied on both protagonists as anchors of stability.

Mexico Outlook 2026

Mexico under stress: threat of US intervention, erosion of democracy and fragile security

ince the US military intervention in Venezuela, possible US operations in Mexico are no longer considered mere threats. Announcements from Washington are now also perceived in Mexico as a real political risk scenario, presenting President Sheinbaum with a foreign and domestic policy test. At the same time, the country is undergoing a period of profound institutional upheaval. Following the far-reaching weakening of constitutional structures in 2025, the announced electoral reform could also bring the legislature under the de facto control of the ruling party in 2026. If this plan is implemented, it would further substantially damage the already fragile democratic balance. At the same time, the security situation presents a mixed picture. While the number of registered homicides is declining, the number of disappearances continues to rise. At the same time, the population's sense of insecurity remains high.