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Cover: EPP Party Barometer July/August 2018

EPP Party Barometer July/August 2018

The Situation of the European People´s Party in the EU and an Outlook on the EP Elections

By Olaf WientzekAug. 23, 2018

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Strongest political family in national opinion polls | Election results of the strongest EPP member party in the last national election | Cumulated election results of all parties belonging to the EPP family | Cumulated election results of the PES/S&D family | Outlook on the EP elections in 2019 | Possible seat distribution in the coming EP | Government participation of the EPP family

Summary and latest developments

  • Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 13 countries (-1 compared to the last party barometer). The Socialist family is leading in 6 (+2), the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 4 (+1), the Liberal family in 3 (-1) countries. In France, an independent movement (Macron / LREM) is leading in the polls, in Italy the far-right is the strongest political group.
  • In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, United Kingdom).
  • Parties of the EPP familiy enjoy a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (above 30%) in Germany, Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Romania and Cyprus
  • In the European Council, 8 Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 7 (8)* to the Liberals, 5 to the Socialists/Social Democrats, 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 5 (4)* are formally independent

(*in Slovenia, the Independent Marjan Sarec has been elected Prime Minister on 17 August as a successor to the Liberal Miro Cerar, the government is expected to be endorsed in the first half of September).

The upcoming European elections:

  • Despite (significant) losses in bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political family (176-196 seats) in the EP (25.0%-27.8% of seats)
  • In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 29.2% of the seats) would only moderately be reduced, as the EPP Group will suffer less from the departure of the British MEPs than other political groups
  • Parties of the far-right (ENF and others) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) might together receive up to 20% of the seats
  • A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner
  • 66-68% of MEPs would continue to belong to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals, Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens)
  • due to several unknown variables, the party barometer develops three different scenarios for the composition of the future European Parliament


ImageOlaf Wientzek
Research Associate European Office
Phone +49 30 26996-3509

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