Country Reports

South Africa After the 2026 Local Government Elections

ANC Continues to Lose Ground as Coalition Politics Becomes the New Normal

The 2026 local government elections confirmed the continuing decline of support for the African National Congress (ANC), while the Democratic Alliance (DA) further strengthened its position in South Africa’s urban centres. At the same time, increasing political fragmentation has accelerated the shift towards coalition governance, making cooperation between parties an enduring feature of the country’s political landscape. Electoral outcomes were driven primarily by voters’ assessments of local government performance, service delivery, and public accountability rather than by historical loyalties or ideological affiliations. The elections also highlighted growing concerns about political violence, xenophobia, and social cohesion, while raising important questions about the future of South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU).

State Crisis in Paraguay

President Peña Detained Following Banking Scandal, Alliana Sworn In

The collapse of Ueno Bank has plunged Paraguay into a political and economic crisis. Following allegations of serious irregularities and close ties between government officials, banking executives, and regulators, President Santiago Peña was removed from office and detained. His successor, Pedro Alliana, preserves Colorado Party rule, while the influence of former president Horacio Cartes appears to be growing once again. The crisis affects millions of depositors, threatens economic gains, and opens new opportunities for the opposition ahead of the 2028 national elections.

El Niño in Latin America

When the climate becomes a stress test for the state

Latin America is bracing itself for one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, which is expected to peak between October 2026 and spring 2027. The consequences vary from region to region: Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia face the threat of drought, heatwaves and forest fires, whilst heavy rainfall and flooding are expected along the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru, as well as in the Cono Sur. What the region has in common is that El Niño is set to hit already strained household budgets, weak infrastructure and, in many places, weakened institutions. The reports from the KAS’s overseas offices therefore reveal a common pattern: the extent of the damage is likely to be determined less by the intensity of the weather event than by the states’ ability to take precautions, coordinate efforts and distribute aid transparently. El Niño thus becomes a stress test for water, energy and food security – and, ultimately, for statehood as a whole.

Türkiye on the Road to COP31

From Host to Shaper of International Climate Diplomacy

COP31 in Antalya offers Türkiye an opportunity to further strengthen its role as a significant actor in international climate diplomacy. As host of a conference deliberately positioned as a “COP of Implementation,” Türkiye is placing emphasis on investment, climate finance, and concrete implementation projects rather than the negotiation of new targets. Turkish climate policy closely links climate action with economic development and energy security. Key priorities of the Presidency include electrification, climate finance, the circular economy, and resilient cities. These priorities also create new opportunities for cooperation with Germany and the European Union, particularly in the fields of industrial transformation, sustainable finance, and the green transition.

The Post-Midterm Power Struggle

How Donald Trump's room to maneuver has changed following the U.S. midterms

For the final two years of his presidency, Donald Trump will, for the first time, face a Congress in which Democrats control both chambers. They will be able to advance their own legislative priorities, exercise greater oversight of the administration, and influence appointments to key positions. Trump, however, retains his veto power and can continue to govern in many areas under existing laws. The extent to which the election results translate into policy changes will depend on where Congress and the White House need to cooperate to advance their respective agendas.

Presidential elections in Bulgaria without surprise

Extremely low voter turnout

First place in the first round of the presidential elections in Bulgaria on 25 October 2026 with 34.7% went to Iliana Yotova, the former vice president, acting president following the resignation of Rumen Radev at the end of 2026, and candidate of the governing party 'Progressive Bulgaria'(PB) as well as the 'Bulgarian Socialist Party'(BSP). However, her result fell short of expectations. In second place was Andrey Gyurov, former caretaker prime minister in 2026 and candidate of the opposition party 'We Continue the Change' (PP) and the 'Democratic Bulgaria' (DB) coalition, who performed stronger than predicted with 32%. In the runoff election on 1 November 2026, Yotova then prevailed quite clearly with 57.6% compared to 39.5% for Gyurov. Voter turnout hit a record low of 23% in the first round and 29.1% in the second round.

America Before the Election: The Final Votes Will Decide

Millions of Americans have already voted, while Republicans and Democrats are vying for the remaining votes. With just a few days to go before the midterm elections, the race for a majority is focused on a manageable number of states and congressional districts. The Democrats are entering the final stretch with a more favorable outlook for the House of Representatives; in the Senate, several paths to a majority remain open. Donald Trump is a key figure for both parties. However, what will be decisive is how national sentiment, the candidates' personal profiles, and local mobilization translate into votes on November 3.

Assessment of the Knesset Election Results

One Winner, Many Losers

For months, Israelis had been talking about one thing above all else: Election Day. The fierce campaign revolved around political responsibility for the Hamas attack of October 7, the prospect of mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox, the war against Iran, and for some, even the future of Israeli democracy. Nearly 78 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. The result is surprising.

U.S. Midterms 2026: From Campaign Messages to the Ballot Box

Before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats are pursuing different paths to securing a majority. Republicans are campaigning on tax relief measures while warning voters about the consequences of their political opponents' policies. Democrats, meanwhile, are linking rising living costs to their call for stronger oversight and accountability in Washington. At the same time, allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest are becoming more prominent in several closely contested races. Both parties face the same challenge: reaching voters who often engage with politics only casually. As campaigning increasingly takes place through television advertisements, short-form videos, and AI-generated search results, election strategies are evolving as well.

Historic Comeback in Brazil: Lula Elected President for a Fourth Term

Mobilization on the streets and social media turns the tide. But a chaotic election day, polarization and Brazil’s rightward shift remain.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva turned the Brazilian presidential election around in a historic comeback, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79 per cent of the vote. Key factors in his victory were the reorganisation of his campaign, widespread social mobilisation and his focus on defending democracy. Nevertheless, his victory does not mark a shift to the left: Brazil remains deeply polarised and Lula will have to govern with an even more conservative Congress.