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Spillover into the South Caucasus?

by Jakob Wöllenstein

What further escalation in the Iran war could mean for Armenia and Azerbaijan

The US-Israeli attack on Iran also exacerbates (geo-)political risks for the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has been particularly exposed to drone attacks, and Armenia could face consequences like an influx of refugees, economic uncertainties, and threats to energy infrastructure. Europe must be ready to act, as an escalation would intensify rivalries, threaten partners, and directly affect our energy and security interests.
March 12, 2026 Order details

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Please note that the full-lenght report is only available in German. 

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Contact Jakob Wöllenstein
Jakob Wöllenstein
Head of Political Dialogue South Caucasus
jakob.woellenstein@kas.de +995 32 2 459112 +995 32 2 459113

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