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IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire
Thailand vor den Wahlen
Richtungswechsel oder Status Quo?
Am 8. Februar 2026 wird in Thailand eine neue Regierung gewählt, weniger als drei Jahre seit dem letzten regulären Urnengang. Notwendig wurden die vorgezogenen Neuwahlen durch die Amtsenthebung von Premierministerin Paetongtarn Shinawatra im August 2025, in deren Folge eine Minderheitsregierung unter Anutin Charnvirakul, dem dritten Premierminister seit 2023, geschäftsführend und befristet die Geschicke übernahm. Diese Zeit geht nun zu Ende – am 12. Dezember 2025 wurde das Parlament aufgelöst, im Januar der Wahltermin bekannt gegeben. Zudem findet am selben Tag ein Referendum zum Für und Wider einer Verfassungsreform statt, die über die grundsätzliche politische Architektur des Landes langfristig entscheidet. Was steht auf dem Spiel, welche Szenarien zeichnen sich ab und was bedeutet das für die Zukunft des Landes? Ein Überblick.
Dr. Angelika Klein
February 6, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Bashir Daher
New Yemen, new Gulf
The war in Yemen and the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
In the wake of the dramatic events in the Yemeni civil war at the turn of the year, the cards have been reshuffled between the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The military offensive by Emirati-backed separatists and the counterattack by the Yemeni government allied with Saudi Arabia are more than just another chapter in the war – they have caused tensions between the two Gulf monarchies to boil over. Not only has the long-simmering animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fully come to surface, but the conflict also makes another round of confrontations in the Gulf more likely. Moreover, it raises fundamental questions about stability in the Middle East, for which the Gulf states were in fact considered guarantors. In the Gulf, a new phase of politics could be dawning, with two opposing poles of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursuing conflicting regional visions with the help of different coalition partners. Likewise, the breakdown of the former Saudi-UAE alliance is not without consequences for Europe's foreign policy in the Middle East, which so far relied on both protagonists as anchors of stability.
Philipp Dienstbier, Nicolas Reeves
February 5, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Zoonar
Mexico Outlook 2026
Mexico under stress: threat of US intervention, erosion of democracy and fragile security
ince the US military intervention in Venezuela, possible US operations in Mexico are no longer considered mere threats. Announcements from Washington are now also perceived in Mexico as a real political risk scenario, presenting President Sheinbaum with a foreign and domestic policy test. At the same time, the country is undergoing a period of profound institutional upheaval. Following the far-reaching weakening of constitutional structures in 2025, the announced electoral reform could also bring the legislature under the de facto control of the ruling party in 2026. If this plan is implemented, it would further substantially damage the already fragile democratic balance. At the same time, the security situation presents a mixed picture. While the number of registered homicides is declining, the number of disappearances continues to rise. At the same time, the population's sense of insecurity remains high.
Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Nikolaus Rischbieter
February 5, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire
Local elections in France in 2026
A barometer for the presidential elections
In March 2026, six years after the last election, local representatives will be re-elected in France. As the last nationwide direct elections before the 2027 presidential election, the parties attach particular importance to this vote, even though local election results traditionally only reflect national sentiment to a limited extent. However, given the unstable national political situation in which this year's local elections will take place, this trend could change. Since the dissolution of the National Assembly in 2024, political control at the state level has been weakened, parliamentary majorities remain unstable and confidence in national institutions is under great pressure. It therefore seems that the political significance of the local elections could have a greater impact at the national level this time or be influenced by it. Accordingly, the focus is shifting to the local authorities: in 2026, they will become key touchstones of political credibility, capacity to act and organisation.
Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
February 5, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Avalon.red
U.S. Perspectives One Year Into Trump’s Second Term
“Move Fast and Break Things”
Showing strength, challenging traditions, and putting America’s interests—along with his own—first: the first year of President Trump’s second term has been a whirlwind of national and international change. Nowhere is this more evident than in foreign policy, where he has profoundly reshaped the role of the United States and challenged the existing order.
Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
January 27, 2026
Country reports
Michael Rimmel
Israel's scars after October 7: The return of the hostages and the national trauma
How the Hamas attack exposes social fault lines and calls old principles into question
On January 26, 2026, the remains of Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage in the hands of Palestinian terrorists, returned to Israel. The police officer, who belonged to an elite unit, had been fighting Hamas on October 7, 2023, when he was killed by terrorists and abducted to the Gaza Strip. With the return of his body, there are no Israeli hostages in the hands of Hamas for the first time since 2014. Now his family and the entire community can say goodbye. Ran Gvili symbolizes the two traumas Israel has suffered since October 7, 2023. The first trauma, the attack on October 7 that left over 1,200 dead, was followed by the second, the taking of 251 hostages, some of whom were held captive by Hamas for two years. It is clear that October 7 was not the beginning, but rather a dramatic escalation of an already familiar pattern.
Dr. Michael Rimmel, Pascal Franz
January 27, 2026
Country reports
MAGO / snowfieldphotography
Poster, Online, Doorstep – Who was Reached by in the Bundestag Election Campaign 2025?
Representative survey on party advertisement in the general election campaign 2025: The perception of posters, flyers, social media ads, canvassing and other ways of campaigning
Parties put a lot of effort into presenting their issues and leaders during the election campaign. They use every means at their disposal: posters, flyers and information brochures, advertisements in newspapers and magazines, advertising on social media, street stands, and even personal contact at the doorstep. But what reaches the voters? Which form of election advertising do they remember? The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung conducted a representative survey on this question. The result in a nutshell: election advertising makes a difference.
Dr. Jochen Roose
January 26, 2026
Monitor Election and Social Research
IMAGO / Xinhua
EU-Jordan Summit
A Symbolic Step for a Strategic Partnership
With the first bilateral summit between the EU and Jordan, both sides sent a signal of their intention to deepen the partnership at a time of heightened regional instability in the Middle East. Through its support for Jordan, the EU aims to strengthen the country in its stabilising role in the region and to contribute to Jordan’s internal stability, particularly by supporting economic resilience and growth. For the EU, the deepening of relations also provides an opportunity to position itself as a reliable partner and actor in the Middle East against the backdrop of an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy.
Veronika Ertl, Laura Schranz
January 21, 2026
Country reports
UCEP
Поводження з ґрунтами і землекористування за Європейським Зеленим Курсом
Результати опитування українських фермерв щодо політики ЄС. Частина 2
Дослідження присвячене політиці Європейського зеленого курсу (ЄЗК) у сфері здоров’я ґрунтів і сталого землекористування, а також викликам і можливостям для України у контексті євроінтеграції, повномасштабної війни та майбутнього відновлення. У фокусі - те, як нові підходи ЄС до охорони ґрунтів, кліматично-орієнтованого сільського господарства та циркулярної економіки поступово стають частиною регуляторної рамки, що визначатиме умови функціонування аграрного сектору.
Yanina Basysta
January 12, 2026
Single title
https://t.me/StrategicaviationT/22700
Ukraine Air War Monitor Vol XII
Analyses for the Protection of Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure
The monthly newsletter “Monitor Air War Ukraine” provides in-depth analyses of current waves of attacks and long-term developments in Russia’s air war against Ukraine. It is based on a comprehensive database that has been documenting every recorded airstrike on civilian targets since autumn 2022. The aim is to formulate data-driven recommendations for short- and medium-term support for Ukraine.
The content is intended for political decision-makers, experts in security and military affairs, as well as specialized journalists. The Monitor is published by the Kyiv Dialogue in cooperation with OSINT and data analyst Marcus Welsch and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
