All publications

Spillover into the South Caucasus?

What further escalation in the Iran war could mean for Armenia and Azerbaijan

The US-Israeli attack on Iran also exacerbates (geo-)political risks for the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has been particularly exposed to drone attacks, and Armenia could face consequences like an influx of refugees, economic uncertainties, and threats to energy infrastructure. Europe must be ready to act, as an escalation would intensify rivalries, threaten partners, and directly affect our energy and security interests.

Ukraine Air War Monitor Vol XIV

Analyses for the Protection of Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure

The monthly newsletter “Monitor Air War Ukraine” provides in-depth analyses of current waves of attacks and long-term developments in Russia’s air war against Ukraine. It is based on a comprehensive database that has been documenting every recorded airstrike on civilian targets since autumn 2022. The aim is to formulate data-driven recommendations for short- and medium-term support for Ukraine. The content is intended for political decision-makers, experts in security and military affairs, as well as specialized journalists. The Monitor is published by the Kyiv Dialogue in cooperation with OSINT and data analyst Marcus Welsch and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

General Election in Nepal

How GenZ changes the country’s political landscape

Nepal’s early general election on March 5, 2026, marked one of the most significant shifts in the country’s political landscape since the adoption of the 2015 Constitution.[1] The election followed a period of intense political instability triggered by the youth-led GenZ protests of September 2025, which ultimately led to the resignation of the government of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.[2]

Congo-Brazzaville: Before the election remains after the election

The 2026 presidential elections in the Republic of Congo under the shadow of systemic competition

The Republic of Congo is exploiting the systemic competition between the EU, China and Russia to maximise its scope for action in terms of financing, infrastructure and security. While the EU remains a natural partner on environmental and transformation issues, deficits in the rule of law, accountability and electoral integrity limit the depth of cooperation. China is rapidly delivering large-scale infrastructure in exchange for resource commitments; Russia fills normative gaps with a discourse of sovereignty and non-interference and anchors energy and security policy agreements. No politically transformative results are to be expected from the 2026 presidential elections; rather, the strategic relevance lies in the continuation of an authoritarian-stabilised order that presents itself as a guarantor of peace and development. In this constellation, the focus for European actors is shifting from short-term election observation to medium- and long-term levers: green industrialisation, critical raw materials and logistics corridors, governance safeguards, youth-centred employment and a realistically calibrated mix of principledness and pragmatism.

Handbook on the 2025 Local Elections in the Republic of North Macedonia

Second updated edition

The Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” – Skopje have prepared the second updated edition of the Handbook on the 2025 Local Elections in the Republic of North Macedonia.

Mexico after the blow against "El Mencho": Security situation, World Cup risks and trade prospects

In February 2026, Mexican armed forces succeed in arresting and eliminating Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), the leader of the country's most powerful cartel. This is immediately followed by coordinated acts of retaliation and demonstrations of power: roadblocks, arson attacks and armed clashes between security forces and cartel members, claiming around 60 lives. Mexico's precarious security situation is thus temporarily back in the international spotlight. The government is striving to restore stability quickly, not least with a view to the upcoming 2026 World Cup. A sustained escalation would further fuel the debate that has already arisen about possible venue changes. At the same time, the operation strengthens the Mexican government's position vis-à-vis the United States. The elimination of a globally wanted cartel leader is intended to demonstrate Mexico's ability to act in terms of security policy and to refute arguments for US intervention. With a view to the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC), this is of considerable importance, as the T-MEC remains Mexico's economic lifeline. The outlook for German and European companies in Mexico in 2026 is generally positive, mainly due to the planned modernisation of the EU-Mexico Global Agreement. Although the violence is increasing uncertainty in the short term, a renewed nationwide escalation is considered unlikely. If the operation strengthens Mexico's position in the T-MEC negotiations, this would be advantageous for German and European companies based in Mexico.

AI literacy requirements should be reformed to be more practical

Article 4 of the AI Act: Good for bureaucracy, bad in practice

Article 4 of the AI Act leads to abstract, one-off training courses that can be easily monitored bureaucratically. In practice, however, they offer little real added value. What is needed instead are agile, sector-specific teaching and learning programmes. Art. 4 should therefore be amended with the Digital Omnibus.

Czechia's defense and Ukraine policy under the new Babiš government – a first impression

From expansion to stagnation

The security policy environment in which the Czech Republic has found itself since Russia's war against Ukraine has led to a change in defense planning in recent years. Under Petr Fiala's (ODS) government, Czechia was prepared to gradually increase defense spending and left no doubt about its support for Ukraine. However, the new coalition government of Andrej Babiš, formed by the populist ANO party, the right-wing extremist anti-system SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) party, and the populist-conservative Motorists' Party, is charting a new course in many areas.

Procedure for verifying compliance of liquid biofuels and biogas intended for use in the transport sector

Research by the Ukrainian Centre for European Policy

Метою цього Порядку є встановлення єдиних вимог та процедур підтвердження відповідності рідкого біопалива (біокомпонентів) та біогазу, призначених для використання у галузі транспорту, критеріям сталості, визначеним законодавством України та актами права Європейського Союзу, що підлягають імплементації відповідно до Угоди про асоціацію між Україною та ЄС та Договору про заснування Енергетичного Співтовариства.

Sustainability Criteria for Liquid Biofuels and Biogas in the Transport Sector

EU requirements and recommendations for Ukraine

This study by the Ukrainian Centre for European Policy is dedicated to establishing in Ukraine a modern, transparent, and EU-law-compliant system for verifying the sustainability of liquid biofuels, biocomponents, and biogas used in the transport sector. The publication analyses the requirements of the RED II and RED III Directives and Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/996, identifies gaps in Ukrainian legislation, and proposes a detailed model for a national procedure for verifying compliance with sustainability criteria