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Corona Update, USA (13) – aktuelle Studien, Analysen und Kommentare

kohta Sabine Murphy, Jeanene Lairo, Elmar Sulk, Syreta Haggray, Dirk Hegen, Paul Linnarz

Für die Zeit vom 19. bis 25. Juni 2020

Die Corona-Krise hat über die erheblichen gesundheitlichen Risiken und Folgen hinaus weitreichende Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft, Sicherheit, Forschung, Innen- und Außenpolitik sowie das gesell- schaftliche Leben in den Vereinigten Staaten. Namhafte US-amerikanische Think Tanks und Experten setzen sich intensiv mit den unterschiedlichen Aspekten und Herausforderungen dieser in ihrem Um- fang und ihrer Schnelligkeit beispiellosen Krise auseinander. Für einen Überblick über den aktuellen Stand der Diskussion stellt das KAS-Auslandsbüro USA mit Sitz in Washington D.C. wöchentlich eine Auswahl an Studien, Analysen und Kommentaren jeweils mit Links zu den Beiträgen zusammen.

“Corona and Bioterrorism: How serious is the Threat?”

Quelle: War on the Rocks, University of Texas at Austin (June 22, 2020)

Marc-Michael Blum, former Head of Laboratory at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons; Peter Neumann, Professor at King’s College London, and investigator for the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland, USA

This article discusses scenarios of biological warfare and recommends that governments should be “vigilant, secure their own facilities, focus on strengthening international diplomacy and should make sure that government scientists — especially those working with high-risk pathogens — are regularly vetted.” The authors highlight that technical challenges in the production of biological weapons make their use by terrorist groups - without the help from a state - unlikely and state that “the chances that terrorists would be capable of engineering a virus such as SARS-CoV-2 without access to a state’s resources are virtually zero.”

***

“Rebuilding toward the great reset: Crisis, COVID-19, and the Sustainable Development Goals”

Quelle: The Brookings Institution (June 19, 2020)

June Zia Khan, Senior Vice President for Innovation, The Rockefeller Foundation; John McArthur, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development

In this blog the authors examine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and argue that long term goals such as the SDGs are at risk because “governments and organizations are now struggling to make plans on a 10-month or even 10-week horizon, let alone 10 years.” Yet the blog also states that it was “possible to rebuild from the crises in a way that not only makes us more resilient to future shock waves, but also helps the global community reset toward better footing for future SDG success.”

***

“Condoleezza Rice On Covid, Russia, And Putin”

Quelle: Hoover Institution, Stanford University (interview, recorded June 23, 2020)

The former U.S. secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is the special guest at this episode (both as podcast and film interview) of the Stanford University's "Good Fellows - Conversations from the Hoover Institution". She, along with the other guests H. R. McMaster, John Cochrane, and Niall Ferguson, focuses on why the COVID-19 crisis is an especially difficult problem for Russia to manage and solve. She also offers her unique take on the current social unrest in the United States, a perspective informed by her upbringing in the South and her own experiences with racism.

***

“Latin America and the Caribbean: Impact of Covid-19”

Quelle: Congressional Research Service
 (CRS, June 19, 2020)

Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, et al.

The policy brief presented by CRS outlines the challenges the Latin American and the Caribbean are facing with Covid-19 pandemic – the hardest hit are Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile. Among the recommendations made, is for policymakers to consider an appropriate level of foreign assistance for the region as well as PAHO (Pan-American Health Organization); waive US economic sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba during the pandemic; and suspend deportation to the region.

***

“The Impact of COVID-19 on Mineral Supply Chains, and Challenges and Opportunities to Rebuild America’s Supply Chains”

Quelle: Hudson Institute (June 24, 2020)

Thomas J. Duesterberg, Senior Fellow (witness at Congress hearing)

The U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources held a hearing at which Tom Duesterberg spoke on the importance of mineral and related metal resources to the manufacturing sector in the U.S. He describes how China through exploiting its own natural resources or gaining control of resources in other countries is increasing U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals. Among the recommendation made, the witness endorses the idea of using federal resources for incentivizing demand for domestic production. At the same time, he argues for the U.S. to work more closely with the “Five Eyes” group when it comes to finding solutions to critical materials and coordinating a reliable supply chain. He even goes so far as opening the discussion to include Japan in this group.

***

“Chinese study: Antibodies in COVID-19 patients fade quickly”

Quelle: University of Minnesota, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP, June 19, 2020)

Robert Roos, News Writer

This CIDRP news feature discusses a new study from China which showed that “antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.” In combination with certain previous findings on COVID-19 antibodies, the researchers concluded that their results "might indicate the risks of using COVID-19 'immunity passports' and support the prolongation of public health interventions, including social distancing, hygiene, isolation of high-risk groups and widespread testing."

***

“The Political Scar of Epidemics”

Quelle: National Bureau of Economic Research, (NBER, June 2020, posted June 22, 2020)

Cevat Giray Aksoy, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Barry Eichengreen, Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley; Orkun Saka, University of Sussex

This NBER working paper predicts the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic and contends that “epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders.” The authors claim that “weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak,” and that the Coronavirus “may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation.”

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“An Early Look at the Potential Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Health Insurance Coverage”

Quelle: The Commonwealth Fund (June 23, 2020)

Sara R. Collins, Vice President, Health Care Coverage and Access, et.al.

The “Commonwealth Fund Health Care Poll: COVID-19, May-June 2020” was conducted based on a total of 2,271 interviews and shows that “among people who said they or a spouse or partner lost a job or were furloughed because of the pandemic, two of five had health coverage through the affected job and that among those who previously had coverage through an affected job, one of five said they or a spouse or partner were now uninsured.” This poll also includes several policy recommendations.

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“Medicare COVID-19 Data Release Blog”

Quelle: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (June 22, 2020)

Seema Verma, Administrator

On June 22, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released preliminary data on COVID-19 derived from Medicare claims, providing an insight into COVID-19’s effect on the Medicare population. The data indicates an elevated risk for seniors with underlying health conditions and presents “stark” socio-economic and racial/ethnic disparities.” Specifically, the data finds that over 325,000 Medicare recipients were diagnosed with COVID-19, of which almost 110,000 were hospitalized, “disproportionately impacting racial and ethnic minority groups and lower income adults, further confirming longstanding healthcare disparities in these populations.”

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“Air travel and communicable diseases: Action needed to develop federal preparedness plan”

Quelle:  U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO, June 23, 2020)

The GAO conducted a study that reviewed available documents and interviewed officials from the key federal departments with responsibilities for conducting aviation research and for preparing for communicable disease threats from abroad and responding to them. In light of the pandemic and warnings about the risks of air travel, U.S. passenger airline traffic fell by 96 percent in April 2020 as compared to April 2019. The report points out that the U.S. lacks a comprehensive plan for national aviation preparedness to limit the spread of communicable diseases through air travel. Among its conclusions, GAO asserts that the existence of a national plan might have reduced some of the confusion among aviation stakeholders and passengers.

***

Weitere Kurzbeiträge:

“Coronavirus Tightens its Grip on South Asia”

Quelle: United States Institute of Peace 
(USIP, June 22, 2020)

Ashish Kumar Sen, reporter, Washington Times

The author describes how the Covid-19 pandemic has tightened its grip in South Asia, which is home to some of the world’s most densely populated nations. He describes how infections have soared in the countries and have battered their economies, thereby plunging many people into poverty. Governments meanwhile have mostly struggled to cope with the crisis. The author refers to a World Bank study and UN University sponsored study by King’s College London that project that millions of people will be pushed into poverty with over half being in South Asia.

***

“COVID-19 is Poised to Deepen Racial Disenfranchisement in November”

Quelle: Freedom House (June 22, 2020)

Isabel Linzer, Research Analyst, Technology and Democracy

In this article, the author argues that there is a “real danger that existing voting inequalities will be amplified by the public health crisis, just as it has compounded divides in healthcare and the economy.” Among the obstacles the author lists are longer waiting times at the polling sites. Studies have already identified “race as the strongest demographic indicator of wait times.”

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“New IHME COVID-19 Model Projects Nearly 180,000 US Deaths”

Quelle: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) University of Washington (June 24, 2020)

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts 179,106 total deaths caused by Covid-19, with a possible range of 159,497 to 213,715. According to the forecast, if at least 95 percent of people wore masks in public, those numbers would drop to 146,047. The forecast also includes state-specific data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, predicting 31,000 deaths in New York, 13,000 in New Jersey and 8,700 in California.

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“Automaker electric vehicle plans ‘progressing at a rapid pace’ despite pandemic, economic downturn”

Quelle: Atlantic Council (June 24, 2020)

Julia Pyper, Nonresident Senior Fellow

This article discusses the global electric vehicle (EV) market amid the COVID-19 outbreak. According to Pyper, the economy-wide lockdowns, supply chain disruptions across the automotive industry and the historic decline in oil prices are “likely to put a significant dent in EV sales in the near term.” However, the article also states that several major auto industry executives took steps “to underscore their commitment to vehicle electrification coming out of the pandemic slump,” one claiming that “the coronavirus could actually speed up the adoption of EVs.”

***

“School District Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Round 6, Ending the Year of School Closures”

Quelle: American Enterprise Institute 
(AEI, June 22, 2020)

Nat Malkus, Resident Scholar; Deputy Director, Education Policy Studies; et al.

This sixth report in the “School District Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic” series shows that all schools in study’s sample were closed by late March, and all remained closed through the end of the academic year. Furthermore, the report claims that on average, schools canceled eight days of instructional time due to the pandemic and that “43% of schools were in districts that planed for an in-person graduation ceremony—with 26 percent delaying the ceremony and 16 percent on schedule—and 28 percent of schools planned to conduct graduation ceremonies virtually.”

***

Für die aktuellen Zahlen zur Corona-Krise in den USA:

The Centers for Disease Control:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Johns Hopkins University:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html










 

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Leiter des Auslandsbüros in Washington, D.C.

Paul.Linnarz@kas.de + 1 202 464 5840
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