Three Scenarios for the Impact of the War in Ukraine on Syria

Russia's war against Ukraine could broadly take one of the following three trajectories: 1) End of the conflict through a political settlement, or full withdrawal of Russian troops, 2) Prolonged war within Ukraine or 3) Spiralling hybrid war between NATO and Russia outside of Ukraine. Although the third option should not be excluded, as of April 2022, the second one is the most likely while the first option is the least likely in the coming six months to a year. 

Syria is the only place where US and Russian forces exist in the same country. The attempts to isolate Syria from Ukraine politically and economically is difficult but is considered possible; military compartmentalization is desired by both US and Russia, but not guaranteed. Based on interviews with 21 experts and officials, different scenarios for Syria in the next six to twelve months were discussed. The most likely is a freeze in the security domain, stalemate in the political domain, and deterioration in the economic domain. This is likely to last as long as the war stays within Ukraine. In the case of an escalation to a NATO-Russia confrontation, the security and political status quo in Syria is expected to dissolve.

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