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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

Spanien hat entschieden - vorläufig

Nationalwahlen am 23. Juli. Fast alle Parteien sind Wahlgewinner und Wahlverlierer

Es erscheint paradox: Bei den Nationalwahlen an diesem 23 Juli sind fast alle Parteien sowohl Wahlgewinner als auch Wahlverlierer. Nur VOX ist ausschließlich Wahlverlierer, weil diese Partei nach dem Verlust von 19 Mandaten und 623.235 Stimmen über keine machtpolitische Option verfügt.

Dr. Ludger Gruber, Martin Friedek
July 28, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

The Wagner Group in Belarus

Possible scenarios based on their previous activities worldwide

The alarming reports about the relocation of the private military company (PMU) Wagner to Belarus after the aborted "March on Moscow" raise a number of questions with regard to national and regional security: Will the Wagner Group act as a political actor in Belarus? Which "instruments" from previous missions in other parts of the world could it bring to bear? And what danger is there for Ukraine and NATO countries if Lukashenka openly fantasises about "excursions" to Poland by his new guests?

Dr. Roza Turarbekava, Pavel Tsereschkowitsch, Jakob Wöllenstein
July 28, 2023
Country Reports
KAS

Sjunik: Between hope and fear - geopolitics under the burning glass

A political travelogue from Southern Armenia

Iran opened a consulate last year in Kapan, the administrative center of the Syunik region in southern Armenia. Russia has now announced that it intends to follow suit, and local sources said the Americans and French are also considering setting up consular posts in Kapan. If that were to happen, four major powers would have a diplomatic presence in a relatively remote small town in southern Armenia with a population of just over 40,000. On the one hand, all of this shows how important this part of the South Caucasus has become basically overnight - having previously been almost completely forgotten for decades. There is also now a growing awareness of the opportunities and dangers that the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan holds. A two-day trip to Syunik, to the southernmost point of Meghri on the Iranian border, was brimming with insights and insights.

Matthias Hespe, Stephan Malerius
July 27, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / Hoch Zwei Stock/Angerer

Demographic Development in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Consequences of the Significant Decrease and Aging of the Population

The shrinking population is not a novelty in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Political and economic shortcomings are the main reasons driving emigration, especially of qualified workforce. The Bosnian-Herzegovinian diaspora (citizens living abroad) is proportionally one of the largest in the world. Additionally, an aging population due to declining birth rates is a growing concern. These two factors together have led to an estimated decline in the population by an average of 25,000 people per year during the period 2013 - 2020. The last census in 2013 counted around 3.5 million residents. Projections suggest a 55% population decline by 2070. The remaining approximately 1.56 million people are likely to face a drastically changed societal structure. This poses significant challenges to the labor market and social systems, particularly the pension, healthcare, and education systems. Addressing these challenges effectively requires sustained political will over an extended period to secure Bosnia and Herzegovina's future in the face of the expected drastic demographic changes. Initial steps in this direction have been taken, and more are planned. However, successful mitigation of the challenges of demographic change requires both the implementation of planned measures and the adoption of additional far-reaching actions.

Sven Petke, Jan Petzke, Sebastian Kalbe, Sharin Garcia Čaušević
July 26, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / UPI Photo

Israel's Judicial Reform

Despite massive opposition, the Knesset passes a core element of the controversial judicial reform

On July 24, the right-wing coalition government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, voted to abolish the so-called “reasonableness clause”. Until now, the clause allowed the court to declare government decisions, or even the appointment of ministers, as "unreasonable" and thus prevent them. The opposition boycotted the vote and left the plenary amid loud protest - symbolically the vote went 64:0. Now, the passed law, which is a core element of the controversial judicial reform, restricts the Israeli Supreme Court's ability to act.

Johannes Sosada
July 26, 2023
Country Reports
KAS

Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the new stability in Hellas

Balance of the first legislative period and challenges of the new government

Greeks were called to the polls twice within five weeks in May and June to elect a new parliament. In both rounds of voting, which took place on the basis of different electoral laws, the Nea Dimokratia of the new and old head of government Kyriakos Mitsotakis won over 40% of the vote. Now it can govern with an absolute majority for the next four years. What are the reasons for the high approval rating? Why was the opposition unable to score, and how will the new Greek government work in the future? - this country report provides the answers.

Marian Wendt, Vasilis Karydas-Yfantis
July 26, 2023
Country Reports
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

Digital Solutions for better Inclusion in Romania

Inclusion worldwide – current status from Romania

In 2010, Romania ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. The purpose of the Convention is to promote, protect and ensure the full and equal enjoyment of all human rights and fundamental freedoms by all persons with disabilities and to promote respect for their inherent dignity. Unfortunately, inclusion of persons with disabilities is not yet a reality in Romania. Accessibility in everyday life, participation of children with disabilities in school, integration of disabled people in the labour market, efficient medical, nursing and care support, etc.: Wherever you look, there are serious deficits in Romania. But there are also people who are taking action and looking for solutions. Also digital solutions.

Katja Christina Plate
July 24, 2023
Country reports with a difference
IMAGO / Xinhua

Beijing Reactions to Germany's China Strategy

China's moderate response

Chinese officials and the state media have reacted with deliberate calm to the German government's new China strategy, which Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock presented last Thursday, July 13. Behind China's restraint is also the political calculation to calm things down so as not to endanger German investments in China.

Johann C. Fuhrmann
July 20, 2023
Country Reports
UN Photo / Jean-Marc Ferré

Geneva Barometer

Developments among Geneva-based international organisations from end-April to mid-July 2023

The ‘Geneva Barometer’ takes an occasional look at selected developments among international organizations based in Geneva.

Dr. Olaf Wientzek, Sarah Ultes, Cedric Amon, Dr. Anja Maria Rittner, Lea Simon
July 20, 2023
Country Reports
Adobe Stock / tum2282

Global Energy Markets and a Strategic Shift in the Gulf

Global energy shortages as an instrument of power

Since Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the oil- and gas-rich Gulf states have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the global energy shortages caused by the halt in Russian oil and gas supplies to most Western countries. In the absence of alternative producers, the Gulf states have come back into focus as strategically important energy exporters. This has not only increased the geopolitical relevance of the oil and gas suppliers of the Arabian Peninsula, it has also provided them with considerable profits due to exploding energy prices and thus strengthened the financial influence of the Gulf states.

Philipp Dienstbier
July 19, 2023
Country Reports
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About this series

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.