Addressing Iran from a Multilateral Perspective - Managing Performence amid Transition

Iran stands at a moment of great geopolitical uncertainty that will influence its strategic trajectory. The underlying logic of the state, the protection of sovereignty, deterrence against external threats and the assertion of national legitimacy, will persist. Confrontations and coercive measures have repeatedly bolstered defensive nationalism and discredited actors perceived as aligned with foreign agendas. As a result, pathways for domestically driven reform remain constrained, and strategies aimed at regime change from abroad reliably generate the opposite of their intended outcome. The same logic applies in foreign and security policy. IAMG’s are experiencing strain and transformation, but they remain essential features of Iran’s deterrence architecture. Public support for nuclear technology transcends factional divides and generational shifts. The programme has evolved from a symbol of sovereign modernisation into a central pillar of national identity and regime survival. A future leadership is no more likely than the current one to relinquish this perceived insurance. Iran’s nuclear trajectory is not dependent on personalities but is embedded in a societal and political culture that links nuclear development to sovereignty, dignity and survival.