Outlook for the EPP family in 2026/2027
› In Spain (November 2026), snap elections will take place on 29 November. The PP leads relatively ahead of the Socialists but would be far from a majority on its own. Polling numbers ahead of Sanchez’ decision to call a snap election suggest that the governing PSOE would not have the numbers to form a government.
In 2027, there will be several significant elections for the composition of the European Council and the EU as such:
› In Estonia (by 7 March 2027), the EPP party Isamaa (currently in the opposition) is still leading in most of the polls but now by a smaller margin ahead of the Centre Party (Renew).
› In Finland (18 April 2027), the EPP party Kokoomus of Prime Minister Orpo is polling in 2nd place significantly behind the Social Democrats.
› In France (18 April 2027), the LR candidate (EPP) for the presidential election is polling between 7 and 11 % and is for now rather unlikely to enter the 2nd round. The RN (PfE) is poised to win the first round and would also win against all candidates in the 2nd round (in the case of E. Philippe however only by a small margin). For parliamentary elections, the LR has been polling between 10 and 12% (last polls regarding the parliament date from autumn 2025 however).
› In Greece (by 25 July 2027), the EPP party ND is still leading with approximately 28-31% in most polls, the new party of Tsipras (his former party Syriza is a member of the European Left) has jumped to 2nd place with around 18%.
› In Slovakia (by 28 September 2027), the EPP parties are at 10% or below although two (Slovensko and KDH) are relatively certain to enter parliament, the Democrats are fluctuating around the 5% threshold, the Hungarian alliance is polling around 4%. The Liberals are in the lead and might be able to form a government with other (incl. EPP) parties.
› In Poland (by 11 November 2027), the EPP party KO of Prime Minister Tusk is leading with 30+% but due to one of the coalition partners possibly not making it back to the Sejm, it is – according to current numbers of most institutes – uncertain if KO can build a coalition.
› In Italy (no later than 22 December 2027), the FdI (ECR) are still leading in the polls, but i.a. due to the new far-right party, the current coalition would overall enjoy less support than in the last elections. The biggest EPP party Forza Italia is polling consistently between 7 and 8 % and slightly higher than Lega (PfE 5-7%).
