Europäisches Parlament / Pietro Naj-Oleari
Outlook for the EPP family in 2026
- In the Netherlands, the CDA has increased their number of seats substantially at the October 2025 elections, achieving 11.79% of the vote. Thanks to a massive surge in support in the last two weeks, the liberal D66 won slightly ahead of the far-right PVV. Overall, far-right parties however maintained their strength. On 27 January, D66, VVD (both liberal) and CDA will present an agreement for a minority coalition, the new government might start end of February.
- In Slovenia, ahead of the March legislative elections, the EPP party SDS is leading the race but would need coalition partners. NSi would enter the parliament as well, possibly also the centre-right Demokrati who have split from SDS. The incumbent coalition (without EPP parties) would likely not gain a majority.
- For the Hungarian parliamentary elections in April 2026, the outlook seems open. Depending on the political affiliation of the polling institute, Fidesz (PfE) or Tisza (EPP) are ahead. Other parties may struggle to enter the parliament.
- In Cyprus (legislative elections in May) the EPP party DISY has somewhat lost support in the polls but is now slightly ahead the far-left AKEL.
- Ahead of the legislative elections in Sweden (September), the Red-Green opposition is leading in the polls, with the Social Democrats leading by a wide margin. The larger EPP partner party Moderaterna polls around 18-19%, the smaller Christian Democrats around the 4%-threshold. The Sweden Democrats (ECR) are polling around 20-22%.
- Fragmented picture in Denmark ahead of the autumn 2026 legislative elections. The governing coalition would receive ca. 1/3 of the votes. The left-right-camps are polling at the same level. Social Democrats are polling a bit above 20%.
- Equally fragmented ahead of the autumn parliamentary elections in Latvia with five to six parties polling roughly between 9-17%. EPP partner and PM party Jauna Vienotiba is recovering after difficult months in the opinion polls and polling at 16.5% (the numbers are lower according to other polling institutes than the used in the barometer).
- In Bulgaria, snap elections have been called and are expected to take place in autumn. EPP affiliated party GERB is leading the race but would according to opinion polls need at least one coalition partner. The overall situation in the parliament is unlikely to change dramatically according to opinion polls.
