EPP-Party Barometer in October 2025

Strength of the EPP party family in national opinion polling

Party family of the single strongest party in national opinion polls in the EU member states

Outlook for the EPP family in 2025

• In Portugal, the centre-right alliance won the snap elections and is ruling (again) in a minority coalition. The far-right Chega led in the latest poll (September) but in the local elections (October) the centre-right won with more than 30%.
• In Czechia, the incumbent centre-right government did not achieve a majority in the October parliamentary electionseven though the losses were smaller than some opinion polls expected. The incoming government will be led by ANO (Patriots for Europe group in the EP), likely in a coalition with far-right parties Motorists (Patriots) and the SPD (ESN).
• In the Netherlands, the Christian Democrats are expected to increase their number of seats substantially at the October elections, polling around 15%. They may end up being the strongest moderate party. In return, the other two parties (NSC, BBB) that are affiliated in the EPP Group are expected to lose significantly, particularly the NSC might not even get a seat.
• For the Hungarian parliamentary elections in April 2026, the outlook seems very open. Depending on the affiliation of the polling institute, Fidesz (Patriots for Europe) or Tisza (EPP) are ahead.
• In Slovenia, ahead of the April legislative elections the EPP party SDS is leading the race but would need coalition partners. NSi would enter the parliament as well, possibly also the centre-right Demokrati who have split from SDS.
• In Cyprus (legislative elections in May) the EPP party DISY has somewhat lost support in the polls and is now slightly behind the far-left AKEL.
• Roughly a year ahead of the legislative elections in Sweden, the Red-Green opposition is leading in the polls, the larger EPP partner party Moderaterna polls around 18%, the smaller Christian Democrats are polling around the 4%-threshold or lower. The Sweden Democrats (ECR) are polling around 20-24%.
• Very fragmented picture in Denmark ahead of the autumn 2026 legislative elections. The governing coalition would receive around 1/3 of the votes. The traditional left-right-camps are at the same level. Social Democrats are polling only at 20% or lower, strongest party in the centre-right camp is Liberal Alliance (EPP Group but not EPP party) with 12-13%.
• Equally fragmented picture in Latvia with six parties polling between 10-15%, EPP partner and PM party around 11.5%.
• Early legislative elections in France cannot be ruled out. The EPP partner LR are polling around 12-13%.