Jordan’s agriculture and food system has maintained a relatively stable food supply despite repeated shocks, even though the country faces severe water scarcity and high dependence on food imports. Renewable water availability is among the lowest in the world, while imports account for most cereals, sugar, rice, vegetable oils, red meat, and animal feed. Jordan therefore cannot realistically pursue food self-sufficiency under current structural conditions. Instead, the system’s stability has relied on strategic reserves, donor support, and government subsidies, all of which have come under increasing pressure since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian War, disruptions in the Red Sea, and more recent regional geopolitical tensions.
The study argues that the priority should therefore be to build a resilient food system capable of absorbing shocks, adapting to changing conditions, and recovering without increasing social or fiscal pressures. Resilience is assessed across five dimensions: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, responsiveness, and recovery. The analysis identifies four interconnected areas of vulnerability: natural resources, trade and imports, production, and governance. Water and energy emerge as binding constraints, while dependence on imports remains both a key source of stability and a major vulnerability. At the same time, high-value agricultural products and Jordan’s food-processing sector present opportunities for competitive import substitution, exports, investment, and employment.
Based on these findings, the study identifies eight priority directions: integrating water, energy, and agricultural planning; strengthening food-security institutions and indicators; improving strategic reserves and food-purchasing support; expanding high-value and export-oriented production; strengthening farmers’ access to efficient irrigation and modern technologies; protecting the water–energy system from geopolitical shocks; and developing an applied research agenda. These measures aim to strengthen Jordan’s capacity to manage future shocks while supporting the objectives of the Economic Modernisation Vision 2022–2033, particularly its focus on affordable food, sustainable growth, exports, and job creation.
The Study is available in English and Arabic.
