On March 25, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Israel Council on Foreign Relations held another webinar on the ongoing war in the region and its impact on Israel. Three renowned experts – Ksenia Svetlova (Chatham House), Dr. Shmuel Bar (IntuView), and Prof. Chuck Freilich (IJFA) – assessed the current situation in Israel and the Middle East, followed by possible scenarios and relevant opportunities as well as risks. Moderated by Dr. Michael Rimmel (KAS), the webinar analyzed the present state of the war and provided well‑founded perspectives on the future.
Michael Rimmel opened the webinar with a quote from former German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer: “In today’s world [Adenauer was referring to the 1950s], might is more important than law.” With this, Dr. Rimmel posed the question of what role military power and strength will play in the present and the future. He also pointed out that a webinar had already taken place two weeks earlier, at the time under the assumption that the war would soon end. However, since the war continues to rage and does not seem to be nearing an end, Dr. Rimmel emphasized the relevance of an in‑depth debate on possible scenarios for the region.
Prof. Chuck Freilich, former National Security Advisor of Israel, argued that Iran will suffer long‑term consequences from the attacks, while in the short term mainly Arab states and the United States will be burdened. According to him, Tehran currently stands strong politically and could benefit strategically from the war. If the regime survives the conflict with its military capabilities intact, this already counts as a success. For Israel, this creates a dangerous situation. The risk increases that Iran may pursue nuclear weapons more intensively. Prof. Freilich criticized that the United States and Israel are acting without clear, achievable strategic objectives. Politically, much is at stake for both Trump and Netanyahu. The legacy of both leaders will be determined by the outcome of the war. Above all, US President Trump will shape the course of the war through his decisions, as Israel has few options without US support. Diplomacy remains difficult because it is unclear what concessions Iran would be willing to make. A regime collapse is possible but unlikely. He expressed optimism that relations between Israel and Arab states could benefit in the long term from the situation.
According to Ksenia Svetlova, Senior Fellow at Chatham House, Russia benefits only slightly from the war despite higher oil prices, because European states continue to uphold the oil price cap. Politically, Russia benefits from the war, particularly through its new positioning. It is not militarily involved but uses the situation to assume a mediating role, which the United States appears partially open to. Even a transfer of Iranian uranium to Russia in exchange for sanctions relief would be conceivable. At the same time, the war in Ukraine is moving out of focus, which Russia also exploits. Even though Iran remains skeptical due to the lack of military aid, Moscow gains many advantages vis‑à‑vis Ukraine and Europe. If Pakistan’s mediation fails, Russia could step in and attempt to link the US stance on the war against Iran with its own war in Ukraine. Moreover, the Kremlin maintains influence over Tehran, while the geopolitical environment remains chaotic and the West struggles to coordinate. She emphasized the importance of developing a new containment strategy against states like Russia and Iran in order to counter their aggressive foreign policies more effectively.
In his contribution, Dr. Shmuel Bar focused on Iran. According to Dr. Bar, the Revolutionary Guards dominate decision‑making processes within Iran, driven by the regime’s instinct for survival and economic interests. Since no authoritative figure remains in Iran, decisions are harder to enforce. This also complicates negotiations, as internal power structures and mutual constraints leave little room for concessions. The “Mosaic Doctrine,” which grants autonomy to units in wartime and inherently complicates centralized decisions, leads to autonomous IRGC units that sometimes act without coordination. The regime is not a homogeneous bloc; many fighters abandon their units when facing danger. The already weak economic situation continues to deteriorate, which is likely to result in more resistance against the regime and increasing repression. Resistance remains particularly problematic in minority regions. Iran’s demands are deliberately unrealistic in order to block talks. On the other side of the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia is beginning to act more assertively against Iran, which could foster further escalation. Partial disintegration of Iran is conceivable, combined with a harsher but less effective regime.
In his closing remarks, Dr. Laurence Weinbaum (ICFR) emphasized that the “unknown unknowns” in this war should give us particular pause. He stressed that tactical successes must be matched by narrative ones, and that the battle for “the story” is critically important. The current situation, he said, has eroded support for Israel in the United States, where it has become an albatross for many of its supporters. This, he argued, poses serious long-term consequences for Israel.
