Europäisches Parlament / Pietro Naj-Oleari
Strongest party family in national opinion polls in the EU member states
Strength of the EPP party family in national opinion polling
Outlook for the EPP family in 2025
- In Austria, a government was successfully formed between ÖVP (EPP), SPÖ (S&D) and Neos (Renew) under Chancellor Christian Stocker (ÖVP) at the second attempt. The FPÖ however remains the strongest party in opinion polls.
- In Ireland, a centre-right coalition between FF (Renew) and FG (EPP), complemented by the support of a group of Independents has been formed. There is an arrangement for a rotation of the Taoiseach position between FF and FG, currently the office is held by Micheál Martin (FF).
- In Bulgaria, a difficult government formation came to a successful conclusion with Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB, EPP) taking over the PM position on 16 January. The government survived non-confidence votes in April; one party (APS, Renew) has withdrawn its support of the government.
- In Belgium, the formation of the broad, rather centre-right-tilted “Arizona” coalition succeeded. The CD&V (EPP) remains a junior governing party. The post of Prime Minister (Bart de Wever) went for the first time to the regionalist N-VA (ECR Group).
- In Germany, Friedrich Merz is expected to become chancellor beginning of May as head of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.
- In Romania, the candidate Crin Antonescu (longtime PNL, supported by EPP and S&D parties) has a chance to enter into the second round of the Romanian presidential elections (1st round on 4 May; 2nd round on 18 May).
- In Poland, the PO (EPP) candidate Rafał Trzaskowski is the opinion poll favourite to win the presidential elections in May (1st round on 18 May) in a second round (1 June), currently polling 54-60% against PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki, with – in most polls - a slightly bigger margin in the case of a runoff against the far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen).
- In Czechia, perspectives for the incumbent centre-right government for the upcoming elections in autumn remain difficult. Currently the opposition party ANO (Patriots for Europe) is leading the polls (but would likely still need a coalition partner). Both EPP member parties joined an electoral alliance with ODS (ECR) which polls at 20%. STAN (not a member of the EPP party but its MEPs part of the EPP Group) performs rather well in the polls (around 10-12 %).
- In Portugal snap elections have been called for 18 May with the centre-right political alliance between PSD and CDS-PP being in a very tight race with the Socialists (both around 30%). The far-right Chega is mostly polling at 16-21%.
You can find the full analysis here.
