Europäisches Parlament / Pietro Naj-Oleari
Strongest party family in national opinion polls in the EU member states
Strength of the EPP party family in national opinion polling
Outlook for the EPP family in 2025
- In Austria, a government was successfully formed between ÖVP (EPP), SPÖ (S&D) and Neos (Renew) under Chancellor Christian Stocker (ÖVP) at the second attempt. The FPÖ however remains the strongest party in opinion polls.
- In Ireland, a centre-right coalition between FF (Renew) and FG (EPP), complemented by the support of a group of Independents, has been formed. There is an arrangement for a rotation of the Taoiseach position between FF and FG, currently the office is held by Micheál Martin (FF).
- In Bulgaria, a difficult government formation came to a successful conclusion with Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB, EPP) taking over the PM position on 16 January. The government survived non-confidence votes in April; one party (APS, Renew) has withdrawn its support of the government.
- In Belgium, the formation of the broad, rather centre-right-tilted “Arizona” coalition succeeded. The CD&V (EPP) remains a junior governing party. The post of Prime Minister (Bart de Wever) went for the first time to the Flemish nationalist N-VA (ECR Group).
- In Germany, Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition in May.
- In Romania, the new Romanian President Nicusor Dan is independent but invited to EPP summits. PM Bolojan is PNL.
- In Poland, the PO (EPP) candidate Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly lost the elections to the PiS-endorsed candidate; the government of PM Tusk (PO) demonstrated unity in a confidence vote, the uneasy cohabitation will continue.
- In Portugal the centre-right alliance clearly won the snap elections and is ruling (again) in a minority coalition.
- In Czechia, perspectives for the incumbent centre-right government for the upcoming elections in autumn remain difficult. Currently the opposition party ANO (Patriots for Europe) is leading the polls (but would likely still need a coalition partner). Both EPP member parties joined an electoral alliance with ODS (ECR) which polls at 20-22%. STAN (not a member of the EPP party but its MEPs part of the EPP Group) performs rather well in the polls (around 10-12 %).
- In the Netherlands, the Christian Democrats are expected to increase their number of seats substantially at the October elections, polling between 11,1 and 13,6%. In return, the other two parties that are affiliated in the EPP Group are expected to lose massively, particularly the NSC.
You can find the full analysis here.
