EVP-Parteienbarometer Juli 2025

Strongest party family in national opinion polls in the EU member states

Strength of the EPP party family in national opinion polling

Outlook for the EPP family in 2025

• In Austria, a government was successfully formed between ÖVP (EPP), SPÖ (S&D) and Neos (Renew) under Chancellor Christian Stocker (ÖVP) at the second attempt. The FPÖ however remains the strongest party in opinion polls.
• In Ireland, a centre-right coalition between FF (Renew) and FG (EPP), complemented by the support of a group of Independents, has been formed. There is an arrangement for a rotation of the Taoiseach position between FF and FG, currently the office is held by Micheál Martin (FF).
• In Bulgaria, a difficult government formation came to a successful conclusion with Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB, EPP) taking over the PM position on 16 January. The government survived non-confidence votes in April; one party (APS, Renew) has withdrawn its support of the government.
• In Belgium, the formation of the broad, rather centre-right-tilted “Arizona” coalition succeeded. The CD&V (EPP) remains a junior governing party. The post of Prime Minister (Bart de Wever) went for the first time to the Flemish nationalist  N-VA (ECR Group).
• In Germany, Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition in May.
• In Romania, the new Romanian President Nicusor Dan is independent but invited to EPP summits. PM Bolojan is PNL.
• In Poland, the PO (EPP) candidate Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly lost the elections to the PiS-endorsed candidate; the government of PM Tusk (PO) demonstrated unity in a confidence vote, the uneasy cohabitation will continue.
• In Portugal the centre-right alliance clearly won the snap elections and is ruling (again) in a minority coalition.
• In Czechia, perspectives for the incumbent centre-right government for the upcoming elections in autumn remain difficult. Currently the opposition party ANO (Patriots for Europe)  is leading the polls (but would likely still need a coalition partner). Both EPP member parties joined an electoral alliance with ODS (ECR) which polls at 20-22%. STAN (not a member of the EPP party but its MEPs part of the EPP Group) performs rather well in the polls (around 10-12 %).
• In the Netherlands, the Christian Democrats are expected to increase their number of seats substantially at the October elections, polling between 11,1 and 13,6%. In return, the other two parties that are affiliated in the EPP Group are expected to lose massively, particularly the NSC.
  
  You can find the full analysis here.