Event Report: Book Launch – Who Will Defend Europe?

On 26 March, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Nordic Countries Programme hosted Jana Puglierin, one of Germany's leading foreign and security policy experts, in cooperation with the Stockholm Free World Forum.

Ms Puglierin presented her latest book, Who Will Defend Europe? (German title: Wer verteidigt Europa? – Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen), at a breakfast seminar attended by invited guests.

In the book, Ms. Puglierin breaks down the complexities of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow's overarching objectives, and the implications for European and German defence policy. She argues that Russia aims to:
a. Establish control over Ukrainian territory;
b. Reorganize Europe's security architecture by dismantling the post-Cold War order; and
c. Re-establish itself as a great power.

Ms Puglierin also highlighted China's role in enabling Russia's war effort, noting that Beijing benefits from the increasingly isolated Russian economy. Meanwhile, the war on Europe's doorstep has brought about permanent and temporary changes to the way security is approached, both for the European Union as a whole and for Germany in particular.

Turning to possible responses, Puglierin argued that Germany currently has a 'golden opportunity' to establish itself as a more capable security provider and take on a bigger role in European defence. Although she cautioned against dismissing the United States entirely, noting that a future administration may adopt a more cooperative approach towards Europe, she nevertheless emphasised that Europeans should prepare for a scenario in which Washington's commitment to European security remains limited. In this regard, she highlighted regional formats such as the NB8 and NB10 as important potential frameworks for strengthening European security cooperation.

At the same time, Puglierin acknowledged that significant resource constraints could hinder efforts to develop a more autonomous European defence capability. Despite these challenges, she maintained that Europe should continue to move towards greater strategic autonomy. She also voiced concerns that Germany's domestic political and economic issues could erode long-term support for Ukraine and broader commitments to bolstering European defence.

The subsequent discussion focused, in part, on the future of transatlantic relations, and on the extent to which European countries can continue to rely on the United States as a security guarantor. While several participants questioned whether Washington remains a dependable partner, Puglierin argued that Europe should preserve the transatlantic relationship while also investing in its own security capabilities.

We would like to express our sincere gratitude to Jana Puglierin and all the other participants for contributing to such an engaging and insightful discussion, and to our partner Frivärld for their continued and generous support.