A border region of growing significance for regional security
The expansion of jihadist groups in West Africa also affects border areas that have received comparatively little research attention. Southwestern Mali and neighbouring areas of Guinea are becoming increasingly important to regional security. Published by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Regional Programme Security Policy Dialogue in West Africa, this study examines the entrenchment of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the risk of a new front. The research was conducted by the Sentinelle Internationale Contre le Terrorisme et la Criminalité Organisée (SITOC).
The analysis draws on qualitative fieldwork carried out in June and July 2026 in southwestern Mali and Upper Guinea. A total of 68 people were consulted, including local officials, civil society representatives, security sector stakeholders, artisanal gold miners and people involved in pastoral mobility. Their accounts provide insights into the interaction between security dynamics, economic interests and community relations.
How JNIM is strengthening its local foothold
The study describes JNIM’s gradual expansion through a combination of discreet infiltration, forest-based refuges, local networks and coercion. Gold mining sites, transhumance corridors and trade routes provide opportunities for mobility, financing and influence. Transport links connecting Bamako to the Guinean border and the port of Conakry are particularly significant.
JNIM also exploits land disputes, tensions over resources and limited access to justice and public services. Artisanal gold mining and pastoral mobility are not, in themselves, causes of radicalisation. Rather, the group finds opportunities where institutions responsible for managing disputes and regulating economic activities are weak or lack legitimacy.
Assessing the risks and strengthening prevention
The report explicitly distinguishes between the presence of fighters, established networks and territorial control. While the evidence supports JNIM’s entrenchment in southwestern Mali, indications of infiltration and the use of certain Guinean border areas do not establish territorial control or a structured armed front in Guinea.
The study therefore recommends permanent bilateral cooperation on intelligence and early warning, stronger protection for civilians and a more effective civilian state presence. It also highlights the importance of mediation over land and pastoral disputes, alongside inclusive community-based early warning mechanisms. Through this publication, SIPODI seeks to inform dialogue among policymakers, researchers, security stakeholders and civil society on effective responses to cross-border threats in West Africa.
