Update Belarus: “Release” of Political Prisoners — December 13, 2025

More news during the period under review:

• The US Treasury published a general license authorizing Belaruskali transactions. On December 13, Belarus’ state media reported, citing John Coale, US special envoy, who held talks with Lukashenka in Minsk, that negotiations on other restrictive measures would continue, noting that more sanctions would be lifted as relations improve. The envoy described his meetings with the Belarusian ruler on December 12 and 13 as very productive. He and Lukashenka discussed the war between Ukraine and Russia; Venezuela; and rapprochement between the US and Belarus. According to Coale, Lukashenka also promised to do his best to stop balloon overflights to Lithuania.
• According to the Lithuanian FM  Kęstutis Budrys, the country will not allow Belarusian potash to pass through Klaipeda, despite the lifting of US sanctions. On December 15, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated that the European Union will maintain sanctions against Belarus.
• The EU broadened the scope of sanctions to cover hybrid activities by Lukashenka’s regime. Lithuanian FM welcomed the EU's new tools to respond to Belarus’ “malicious activities.” Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the EU decision, stating that  the pressure is working—and it must continue.
• Lukashenka offered himself as a mediator between Trump and Maduro. In an interview with the American TV channel Newsmax, Lukashenka spoke about the possible settlement of relations between the United States and Venezuela, warning the US against a military operation in Venezuela and announcing a conversation with Trump on Venezuela. Asked whether Belarus was ready to shelter Maduro, Lukashenka claimed that Maduro is not the kind of man to leave everything and flee. He is a strong person of the Hugo Chavez variety. 
• Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service detected preparations in Belarus for the possible deployment of Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system.
• As part of the Iranian military delegation's visit to Belarus, the third meeting of the Joint Belarusian-Iranian Interdepartmental Commission on Military Cooperation was held. The parties discussed the current status and prospects for military cooperation between Belarus and Iran and agreed on a plan for joint activities for 2026.

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Topics:
Belarus and the war
Democratic Forces
Repressions
The State
International Dimension
 

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Belarus and the War

• Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service detected preparations in Belarus for the possible deployment of Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system.
• As part of the Iranian military delegation's visit to Belarus, led by Brigadier General Mohammad Ahadi, Head of the Department of International Relations and Defense Diplomacy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the third meeting of the Joint Belarusian-Iranian Interdepartmental Commission on Military Cooperation was held, Lukashenka’s MoD press service reported. The parties discussed the current status and prospects for military cooperation between Belarus and Iran and agreed on a plan for joint activities for 2026.
• Lukashenka’s MoD Khrenin met with Zimbabwean counterpart in Harare and signed an agreement on military cooperation.
• On December 15, Lukashenka’s State Military-Industrial Committee reported that a working visit of the delegation of the Committee, led by Chairman Dmitry Pantus, to China has concluded. A number of high-level meetings and negotiations were held with the leadership of Chinese defense companies and corporations. The meetings and negotiations with Chinese partners were held behind closed doors. The parties synchronized their positions on a wide range of cooperation areas, including space cooperation. A MoU was signed between the Committee and the National Development and Reform Commission of China.
• Lukashenka’s Armed Forces received new electronic warfare systems – Optima and Aero. According to the MoD, the new electronic warfare systems are designed to suppress enemy drones and communications, as well as to create a resilient defense perimeter for friendly units.
• Lukashenka’s FM Maxim Ryzhenkov was added to the database of the Ukrainian center "Peacemaker" on December 14. The website describes him as "a representative of the Belarusian dictatorial regime of Lukashenka and a sports functionary."  The reasons for his inclusion in the database include "war propaganda," "public support for Russian aggression," "participation in legitimizing the Russian occupation of Donbas," and an attempt on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Democratic Forces

• On December 15, in Vilnius, Tsikhanouskaya and human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, who was released from prison on December 13 and forcibly deported to Lithuania, met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.
• Results of the work of the Office of Tsikhanouskaya, December 8–14.
• Pavel Latushka discussed international protection for Belarusians during a meeting with the Chief Commandant of the Polish Border Guard.
• On December 14, the representative of the UTC of Belarus for Defense and National Security, Vadim Kabanchuk, and the head of the Mission of Democratic Forces of Belarus in Ukraine, Sviatlana Shatilina, met with former political prisoners deported by the regime to Ukraine. The meetings were held in the places where the former prisoners were located. According to Svetlana Shatilina, for several days all former prisoners will undergo procedures that are "standard in Ukraine for people in similar situations. For example, former prisoners of war returning from Russia undergo such procedures. At the same time, everyone is provided with the necessary and possible medical care." 
• The UTC of Belarus reported on active work to provide immediate support to Belarusians forcibly deported to Ukraine by the Lukashenka regime. Thanks to the coordinated efforts of numerous humanitarian and human rights organizations, initial assistance is already being provided to people. According to the UTC, the released Belarusians will be able to either remain in Ukraine or, as soon as possible, be relocated to Poland, Lithuania, or other European countries, where many of their families and loved ones live.
• As of December 15, The BySol solidarity fund has raised within 77 hours €250,000 in donations for assistance for more than a hundred Belarusian political prisoners freed on December 13 and deported to Ukraine and Lithuania. 
• The Belarusian Solidarity Center in Warsaw announced its readiness to provide comprehensive and practical assistance to former Belarusian political prisoners and their families who will come to Poland. 

Repressions

• An activist from Rechitsa was sentenced to 10 years in prison and a large fine for supporting extremist activities.
• A talented programmer was sent to prison for politics.
• Mass media and social media of Belarusian communities abroad were added to the list of "extremist" materials.
• Chronicle of political persecution on December 13-15.

The State

• Lukashenka offered himself as a mediator between Trump and Maduro. In an interview with the American TV channel Newsmax, Lukashenka spoke about the possible settlement of relations between the United States and Venezuela, warning the US against a military operation in Venezuela and announcing a conversation with Trump on Venezuela. Asked whether Belarus was ready to shelter Maduro, Lukashenka claimed that Maduro is not the kind of man to leave everything and flee. He is a strong person of the Hugo Chavez variety. 
• The development of trade and economic relations is a priority in the cooperation between Belarus and Iran, Lukashenka said at a meeting with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi in Minsk on December 15. Lukashenka noted that the two countries are already implementing a roadmap for comprehensive cooperation for 2023-2026, and it is necessary to jointly plan the further development of relations.
• State Secretary of Lukashenka’s Security Council Aleksandr Volfovich met with the Iranian FM in Minsk on December 15. Interest was expressed in developing bilateral cooperation in security, including within the framework of international organizations.
• The Minsk meeting between Lukashenka’s FM Maxim Ryzhenkov and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi resulted in the signing of a series of documents, among others - a declaration on opposing unilateral restrictive measures.
• PM Aleksandr Turchin signed the Council of Ministers’ resolution on the plan designed to guide the social and economic development of Belarus in 2026. The document stipulates quarterly targets of the most important indicators and parameters of social and economic development, key indicators of efficient work of organizations as well as tasks concerning the social and economic development of Belarus. 
• The second session of the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly will take place in Minsk this week, on 18-19 December.  Lukashenka’s “news agency” Belta reports about key points of the upcoming session. 
• Lukashenka’s propaganda started a campaign of whitening Lukashenka and his regime, noting that in the last few months Western analytical centers published a series of papers covering Belarus. Many of them demonstrate genuine interest in the country and are not burdened by stereotypes and political agenda. 
• Industrial production in January-November amounted to 190 billion rubles, down 1.7% compared to the same period last year, Lukashenka’s statistics agency Belstat reported. Industrial production continues to slow. According to Belstat, Belarus' exports of investment goods are declining, while food imports are growing. The trends of recent months continue.

International Dimension

• Following negotiations with Trump’s Special Envoy in Belarus Coale on December 12 and 13, the Belarusian ruler released 123 prisoners on December 13 to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. 114 were deported to Ukraine, including 104 Belarusians and  five Ukrainian citizens. The rest including the Belarusian Nobel Prize laureate Ales Bialatski were deported to Lithuania. Among the released are prominent human rights defenders and Viasna members Ales Bialiatski and Uladzimir Labkovich, as well as key opposition figures, such as Maryia Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka and lawyer Maksim Znak, co-chairman of the BCD party Paval Seviarynets. 
• On December 14, former political prisoners released on December 13 and deported to Ukraine held a press conference for Ukrainian journalists in Chernihiv.
• Released activists spoke with the Ukrainian president, the Lithuanian PM.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told how Belarusian political prisoners unexpectedly ended up in Ukraine, although they were expected in Lithuania. According to him, Lukashenka did not want to transfer political prisoners to EU countries.
• Ursula von der Leyen stated on X that she welcomes the release of political prisoners in Belarus and called to continue the  fight for human rights and justice in Belarus until the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people are fulfilled. Viasna collected the reactions of other world political leaders to the release of political prisoners.
• 28 human rights organizations stressed in their joint statement that  that this step remains insufficient as long as hundreds of human rights defenders, journalists, lawyers, activists, and political opponents remain arbitrarily detained in Belarus on politically motivated charges solely for exercising their fundamental freedoms, and repressions against Belarusian dissidents continue unabated.
• Germany will accept released Belarusian opposition figures Maryja Kalesnikava and Viktar Babaryka, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told ARD on December 14. Earlier, German FM Johann Wadephul welcomed the December 13 release of 123 people held in Belarusian prisons on political grounds, acknowledging Washington’s diplomatic efforts.
• The US consulted with Poland regarding negotiations with Lukashenka, according to the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration Czesław Mroczek. Asked why Andrzej Poczobut was not among the political prisoners released over the weekend, the deputy minister said that “this is the decision of the Belarusian side, which decides which prisoners to release. He assured that the Polish side is making every effort to secure Poczobut's release, including raising the issue during Polish-American consultations hosted by the MFA.
• The US Treasury published a general license authorizing Belaruskali transactions. On December 13, Belarus’ state media reported, citing John Coale, US special envoy, who held talks with Lukashenka in Minsk that negotiations on other restrictive measures would continue, noting that more sanctions would be lifted as relations improve. The envoy described his meetings with the Belarusian ruler on December 12 and 13 as very productive. He and Lukashenka discussed the war between Ukraine and Russia; Venezuela; and rapprochement between the US and Belarus. According to Coale, Lukashenka also promised to do his best to stop balloon overflights.
• Valentin Rybakov, Lukashenka's Permanent Representative to the UN and a key negotiator with the US, commented on the results of talks with the American delegation in Minsk and assured that Washington is not attempting to influence Lukashenka in his relations with Russia. Lukashenka’s official made this statement in an interview with state television. In the same interview, Rybakov hinted at business with the US, "which we can jointly develop." According to Rybankov, Coale said during the negotiations that the ultimate goal that he and the US administration set for themselves is the complete normalization of our relations.
• According to the Lithuanian FM  Kęstutis Budrys, the country will not allow Belarusian potash to pass through Klaipeda, despite the lifting of US sanctions. Lithuanian Presidential Advisor Deividas Matulionis suggested that if the issue of resuming Belarusian potassium transit through Klaipėda arises, the decision could be linked to a US military presence. However, the American side has not yet raised this issue. The largest trade route through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda, which previously handled more than 90% of Belarusian potash, has been closed since 2022.
• On December 15, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated that the European Union will maintain sanctions against Belarus.
• The EU broadened the scope of sanctions to cover hybrid activities by Lukashenka’s regime. Lithuanian FM welcomed EU’s new tools to respond to Belarus’ “malicious activities.” Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the EU decision, stating that  the pressure is working—and it must continue.
• Latvia advises its residents against traveling to Belarus. 
• The General Assembly of the International Chess Federation (FIDE) on Sunday voted in favor of two resolutions that allow the Belarusian and Russian national teams to participate in international competitions. FIDE also lifted restrictions on holding tournaments under the organization's auspices in Belarus.
• The German Federal Criminal Police are investigating possible involvement in crimes against humanity by former Belarusian prison warden Dzmitry Shynvize (Schoenwiese), the BelPol resistance group reports, citing a response received from the German Ministry of Justice.
• Poland recorded more than 100 contraband balloon flights this year.
• Polish and Lithuanian border guards seized contraband Belarusian cigarettes.
• Tunnels under the Polish border fence on the Belarusian side are being built by Kurdish migrants. This was stated on RMF FM by the Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration, Marcin Kerwiński. According to the minister, the tunnel looks very professionally made. Kerwiński believes that the Belarusian services have become convinced of the effectiveness of the fence and are now looking for new ways. Nevertheless, he is confident that the Polish side will also be effective in detecting the tunnels. He added that out of approximately 180 migrants who passed through the tunnel on last Friday, more than 140 were detained.
• On December 15, Lithuania reported 2 attempts of illegal crossings of the border from Belarus; Latvian border guards prevented 7 border crossing attempts. The Polish Border Guard Service registered 0 border crossing attempts.