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Sustainability Monitor

COP30: Alliances, new climate finance and Brazil's balancing act in the fossil phase-out

by Maximilian Hedrich, Anuska Soares, Nicole Linsenbold

First climate conference in the Amazon between new beginnings and disillusionment

COP30 brought progress on climate finance, adaptation and gender policy – but failed with regard to a clear phase-out of fossil fuels. Brazil acted as a bridge-builder, not only through the strong participation of indigenous communities, social movements and young actors, but also lost credibility through its own fossil fuel plans. The EU must stabilise its internal climate target architecture and strengthen credible international partnerships even without US support. Although multilateralism remains capable of acting, it does not reach the pace demanded by science.

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COP30 in Belém was the first world climate conference in the Amazon region – a symbolic place that underlines the urgency of climate protection. The conference brought important progress: the Belém Action Mechanism has created a framework for a just transition, global adaptation finance is to be tripled by 2035, and the Tropical Forests Forever Fund is providing new impetus for the protection of tropical forests. In addition, the adopted Gender Action Plan strengthens the role of indigenous and rural women in climate policy.

The social mobilisation was remarkable: With over 65,000 participants, including indigenous communities, social movements and young actors, Belém is considered one of the most inclusive COPs. However, this broad participation contrasted with the limited quality of the results of formal negotiations. The central question remained unanswered: How can the global phase-out of fossil fuels succeed? Despite intense negotiations, a binding phase-out plan failed due to resistance from major oil producers and the limited leverage of the European Union and Brazil.

The balance sheet is ambivalent: progress in climate finance and governance is offset by a missed opportunity to drive transformation at the pace of scientific warnings.

This leaves many, sometimes fundamental questions unanswered, to which this issue of the Sustainability Monitor tries to provide answers:

  • Why did COP30 fall short of expectations despite widespread mobilisation in the fossil phase-out?
  • The absence of the United States left a geopolitical power vacuum. Have other key players such as the European Union or China been able to fill this vacuum?
  • What role did Brazil play as hosts?
  • Is the COP format still suitable for driving the transformation forward at the necessary pace?

Read the entire monitor of our colleagues from Brazil and Brussels: ‘COP30: Allianzen, neue Klimafinanzierung und Brasiliens Balanceakt beim fossilen Ausstieg’ from our Sustainability series here as PDF. Please not, to date this publication is only available in German.

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Contact Gisela Elsner
Gisela Elsner kas
Environmental, Climate and Sustainability Policy Officer and KAS Advice and Complaints Officer
gisela.elsner@kas.de +49 30 26996-3759

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About this series

The publications of the Sustainability Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.